Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers lessons learned sofia dermisi roosevelt university usa
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1. Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned Sofia Dermisi Roosevelt University USA. 20 th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference. Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned. 2. Presentation Outline. Previous research Study focus

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Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned Sofia Dermisi Roosevelt University USA

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Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers:

Lessons learnedSofia DermisiRoosevelt University

USA

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

2

Presentation Outline

  • Previous research

  • Study focus

  • Research questions/Methodology

  • Data

  • Global/city spatial distributions - Historical directional distributions

  • Results

  • Conclusions

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

3

Previous research

  • Barr J. – 2012 provides evidence of height competition during boom times in New York city

  • Barr J., B. Mizrach, and K. Mundra – 2011 found a lack of international relationship between skyscraper’s height and business cycles

  • Barclays skyscraper index claims a link of the world’s tallest buildings and impeding financial crisis from 1930 – 2010

  • Barr J. – 2010 study of the Manhattan skyline provides evidence of links between building height and completions as functions of market fundamentals and builders’ egos.

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Study focus characteristics:

  • Existing office buildings with minor retail component

  • Buildings are located in four regions (Asia, Europe, Middle East and USA)

  • The height of the buildings is 183m (600 ft) or more

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Research questions/Methodology

1) What is the spatial distributions of office skyscrapers across regions/countries/cities?

- GIS mapping – directional distribution (using the standard deviational ellipse)

2) Effects of external and internal conditions on skyscraper heights?

- Fixed –effect regression controlling for countries (or cities) while clustering by the year the buildings were completed and weighted by the gross building area.

- skyscraper height: in meters

- i: takes values from 1 through n representing each of the skyscrapers among 4 regions (Asia, Europe, Middle East and US)

- Pr: includes the variables - completion year, number of elevators, the difference between construction finish- start, and dummy variables for recessions and type of structural material

- Ec: GDP/capita and unemployment rate

- η: reflects the country or city specific characteristics which are time invariant.

- c: clustering of skyscraper completion year.

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

6

Data

  • Office skyscrapers: Address, height, square feet, construction start/completion, number of elevators and structural material (sources: Council of Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat, Emporis.com, Building’s websites)

  • Economic:Recessions (from 1860- 2011) , GDP/capita and unemployment rate (sources: NBER , BLS, World Bank, tradingeconomics.com, countries ministries or other reports)

    Outcomes:

  • 82.3% of office skyscrapers across three regions (Asia, Europe and Middle East) is located in Asia

  • The highest concentration of skyscrapers is in the USA (198) rapidly followed by China (185)

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Global spatial distributions

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Global spatial distributions

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Global spatial distributions

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Country spatial distributions

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions

More than 20 skyscrapers

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions

More than 20 skyscrapers

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

13

City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions

More than 20 skyscrapers

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

14

City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions

More than 20 skyscrapers

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

15

City spatial distributions – Historical directional distributions

More than 20 skyscrapers

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Descriptive statistics:

Asian office skyscrapers represent:

  • 50.3% among the four regions followed by the US with 38.9%

  • 82.3% among the three multi-country regions (Asia, Europe and Middle East)

  • Skyscraper measurements are comparable among regions

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Descriptive statistics:

  • Skyscrapers in China represent 64% of the total number across Asia

  • Skyscraper measurements are comparable among Asian countries beyond completion year

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Descriptive statistics:

  • Europe lacks:

    - significant skyscraper presence

    - significant completions in recent years

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Descriptive statistics:

Middle East:

  • Lacks significant skyscraper presence

  • Skyscrapers are recently completed

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Descriptive statistics:

US cities (10 or more skyscrapers):

  • Lack significant new skyscraper completions

  • Skyscrapers measurements are comparable

20th Annual European Real Estate Society Conference


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Results Effects of external and internal conditions on skyscraper heights

  • Internal & external conditions do not share a consistent effect on skyscraper’s height across all regions

  • Skyscraper heights of buildings commencing construction during a recession are lower compared to other periods in Asia & Middle East

  • Longer construction times are associated with shorter skyscrapers in Europe

  • An increase in GDP/capita and unemployment rate leads to unexpected effects in the Middle East and the US, respectively


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Results Effects of external and internal conditions on skyscraper heights

  • Internal & external conditions do not share a consistent effect on skyscraper’s height across all countries

  • Skyscraper heights of buildings commencing construction during a recession are lower compared to other periods in both China & Japan

  • An increase in unemployment rate is associated with a less expected increase in skyscraper’s heights for the US


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Conclusions – part 1

  • Only 7 countries around the world have more than 10 skyscrapers (CN, JP, KR, MY, SG, UAE & US)

  • The oldest skyscrapers worldwide are located in the USA (avrg. completion year 1979) and the newest in S. Korea* (avrg. completion year 2003)

  • The directional distributions show significant spatial shifts in skyscraper development across all cities with more than 20 skyscrapers

  • Asian office skyscrapers represent 82.3% of the three multi-country regions (Asia, Europe and Middle East) with China having the largest footprint

  • Europe has almost a non existing skyscraper footprint compared to the other three regions

  • Middle East has a small but continuously increasing number of newer skyscrapers

    *countries with 10 or more skyscrapers


  • Agglomeration of global office skyscrapers: Lessons learned

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Conclusions – part 2

  • Recessions during construction starts decrease skyscraper’s height in Asia (9.9%) and Middle East (42.8%). The decrease reaches 12.6% in China and 13.6% in Japan.

  • The type of construction material (composite, steel and concrete) affect positively building height mainly in Asia and the US.

  • Increase in unemployment levels have an opposite effect on skyscraper’s height in Europe (-26.3%) and the US (13.9%). Japan has a similar trend with Europe experiencing a 13.7% decrease.

  • The results of this study are aligned with other studies but further exploration of the data is required.


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