EBMWG DS04 Co Location Project Overview and Update

1. EBMWG DS04Co Location Project Overview and Update June 5, 2008 C. Rumsey

2. DS04 Purpose • To inform identification of potential areas for old growth management reserves that meet multiple conservation objectives while avoiding timber supply impacts.

3. DS04 Background • South Central Coast Pilot • Gather Data Inputs • Marxan evaluation of opportunities for co-location • Review by focal species Domain Experts • Seles Evaluation of revised results • Communicate of results • Mid Coast and North Coast Pilots as deemed useful and appropriate by steering committee • Ground-truthing pilot opportunities also being evaluated

4. South Central Coast Pilot • Opportunity to test various existing data sets using Marxan • Involves working closely with EI02 and EI03 • Domain expert review June 10th • Opportunity to inform DSPs • Final draft results by end of June

5. METHODS

6. MARXAN • Meeting Representation Targets for Conservation Features • Minimizing Area • Minimizing other Costs • Reducing Perimeter

7. MARXAN 1. The total cost of the reserve network (required)2. The penalty for not adequately representing conservation features (required)3. The total reserve boundary length, multiplied by a modifier (optional)4. The penalty for exceeding a preset cost threshold (optional – see footnote 3)

8. Planning Units • 10 hectare hexagons • 2 Versions, ‘Locked’ and ‘Unlocked’ • Locked has fixed or pending reserves burned into planning unit layer • Conservation Areas • Existing Parks, Conservancies, Biodiversity Areas • Grizzly Bear Critical Habitat • Ungulate Winter Range • Tailed Frog WHA • Riparian • Buffered High Value Fish Habitat, Flood Plain

9. Fixed or Pending Reserves(Overlaps counted under top-most reserve type)

10. Inputs – Cost Surface • 1)Total volume harvested per 1-ha cell • scaled from 0 to 10,000, where 10,000 is for the cell(s) with the highest volume harvested over a 400-year run). • 2)Volume divided by the square root of the normalized distance to existing access (road or ocean). • e.g. for double the volume, one would be willing to go 4 times as far.  

11. Low Cost High Cost Study Area Landscape Units for DS04 South Central Coast pilot

12. Study Area Landscape Units for DS04 South Central Coast pilot Proportion of SCC cost in LU

13. Inputs – Forest • Latest CFCI Data Set • Site Series Surrogates (SSS) and Seral • Oldest First set-up • Multiply SSS ha by representation % • Fill goal with available Old, then Mature, then Mid, then young

14. SERAL Forest Cover South Central Coast

15. Oldest first set-up • SSS1 Representation goal = 30% Total SSS1 = 200ha • Old 40 ha, • Mature 10 ha, • Mid 5 ha, • young 145 ha Goal Total ha = (30% x 200ha) = 60ha • Goal Old 40 ha (all) • Goal Mature 10 ha (all) • Goal Mid 5 ha (all) • Goal Young 5 ha

16. Inputs – Focal Species • Goals Set • Marbled Murrelet Recovery Team Model • Tailed Frog Basins • Tailed Frog High Probability Streams • Grizzly Bear Class 2

17. Grizzly Bear South Central Coast Grizzly Bear Critical Grizzly Bear 2 Grizzly Bear 3

18. Marbled Murrelet Recovery Team MMRT

19. Tailed Frog Tailed Frog Basins High Probability Streams

20. Marbled Murrelet Low Level Assessment, Photo Interp. MAMU 1 MAMU 2

21. Inputs – Focal Species • For Post Hoc Analysis Only • Marbled Murrelet • Low Level Assessment • Photo Interpreted (6 Landscapes) • Goat Class 1 and 2 • Black Bear • Northern Goshawk Nesting and Foraging

22. Black Bear Black Bear 1

23. Mountain Goat Goat CIT 1 Goat CIT 2

24. Northern Goshawk? NOGO ?

25. SOME DRAFT RESULTS

26. Scenarios - Testing • Baseline at multiple clumping factors • Baseline with different cost factors and multiples • Baseline with Grizzly Class 2 (30%, 50%) • Baseline with Grizzly Class 2, MMRT 50% • 30% Old Growth vs. 30% RONV

27. Draft Scenario Comparison

28. Draft Baseline Results

29. Scenarios – Regional Baseline • SCC Sub Regional Representation • 30% All Site Series Surrogates, oldest first • 30% Tailed Frog Basins • 50% Tailed Frog high probability streams • 30% MMRT • 30% Grizzly Bear Class 2 • Locked and Unlocked

30. Scenarios – Landscape Baseline • SCC Landscape Unit Representation • 30% All Site Series Surrogates, oldest first • 30% Tailed Frog Basins • 50% Tailed Frog high probability streams • 30% MAMU 1 • 30% MAMU 2 • 30% MMRT for six LU’s without LLA • 30% Grizzly Bear Class 2 • Locked and Unlocked

31. Using Boundary Length to disperse or clump solutions

32. No Boundary Length Modifier Protected Areas Solution Area

33. High Boundary Length Modifier (10,000) Protected Areas Solution Area

34. Mid Range Boundary Length Modifier (250) Protected Areas Solution Area

35. Locked vs. Unlocked

37. No Areas Fixed for Analysis “Unlocked” Protected Areas Solution Area

38. Conservation Areas and Reserves (existing and Proposed) “Locked In” Protected Areas Solution Area

41. Targets by Sub Region Or Landscape Unit

42. Sub Regional Targets Protected Areas Solution Area

43. Landscape Unit Targets Protected Areas Solution Area

44. A Closer Look

45. Wakeman Locked over Cost

46. Wakeman UnLocked over Cost

47. SERAL Wakeman UnLocked over Seral

48. SERAL Wakeman Locked over Seral

49. Conservation Value

50. Conservation Value • Assess overall utility of a planning unit to finding a solution looking at the number of times a unit was selected for a solution • Can also look more directly at the concentration of values of a planning unit • Richness map in development