Office of Military Affairs (OMA). Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework (TCAPF). Agenda. TCAPF Overview TCAPF Methodology Collection Analysis Design Monitoring & Evaluation TCAPF Timelines and Benefits Real-World Example: Lashkar Gah. Why TCAPF?. Typical Metrics
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Tactical Conflict Assessment and Planning Framework(TCAPF)
Increased number of Afghan security forces
Increased number of insurgents killed
Lack of a standardized assessment process that allows civilians and military to develop a common view of the causes of instability
Civilian programs and military operations are not linked and synched
Failure to make the local population the focal point
“Understanding Afghan popular perceptions at the province, district, and local level is critical and usually ignored in official reporting….success in the area must be based on Afghan terms and values and the focal point for all activity must be the impact on Afghan perceptions and attitudes.” -- CSIS Af-Pak report (2008)
Failure to integrate tactical information into strategic planning
Programming based on LOOs created at higher HQ, not local conditions
Failure to target the root causes of instability
Reporting focused on outputs, not impacts
How can we diminish these obstacles?TCAPF Overview
UK 52nd BDE, Helmand, Afghanistan – 2007
USMC RCT8, currently in Anbar, Iraq
USMC MEB-A in RC-South, Afghanistan
4th BDE, 25th ID – currently in RC-East, Afghanistan
Elements of 4th BDE, 82nd Abn Div – in RC-East & RC-South
5th BDE, 2d ID – currently in RC-South, Afghanistan
UK 11th BDE – currently in Helmand, Afghanistan – 2009
COIN Academy, Kabul – 2009
USAID Mission, Field Officers, and Implementing Partners, Afghanistan
Collect / Log Local Perceptions
Determine Output Indicators
Identify & Prioritize Objectives
Determine Impact Indicators
…with the TCAPF Questionnaire
Used at the tactical level to identify local perceptions about the causes of instability
Establishes a baseline for local perceptions
Generates data that can be used to measure the impact of activities and changes in local perceptions over time
Four simple questions:
“Has the number of people in the village changed in the last year?”
“What are the most important problems facing the village?”
“Who do you believe can solve your problems?”
“What should be done first to help the village?”
Always followed with “Why?”
“Village” can be replaced by “neighborhood,” “valley,” or other relevant area.
Remember to always ask “WHY?”
Questionnaire also in Pashtu, Dari, and Arabic
To increase stability in your AO, you must understand what is causing instability. This understanding is based upon:
Operational environment (political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information)
Cultural environment (tribe, clan, religion, language, etc.)
Instability Dynamics (grievances, resiliencies, key actors, events)
Until you understand your operating environment, your programming will not be effective. In some cultures, honor, justice, and revenge matter more than schools, roads, and jobs!
How do we acquire the population’sview of the local causes of instability?
If yes, does it also comply with the Design Principles:
Ensure sustainability by the local government or institutions?
Facilitate local ownership?
Consider the trade-offs between short-term vs. long-term impacts?
Fit the local political and cultural context?
Strengthen governmental accountability and transparency?
Leverage/support OGA, IGO, NGO, and HN programs?
Draw upon readily accessible local resources?
Key: Are you fostering STABILITY?
Have your program activities been achieved? (Measure of Performance)
Have your program objectives been achieved? (Measure of Effect)
Is stability increasing or decreasing? (Big Picture)
Increasing road movement at night
TCAPF shows increasing government legitimacy
TCAPF shows decreasing security concerns
TCAPF shows population returning to their homes
Decreasing Afghan civilian casualties (all sources)
Decreasing number of govt and tribal leaders killed, kidnapped, intimidated (e.g. “night letters”)Process – Evaluation
1 Month - Identification of Local Causes of Instability - Develop counter-instability activities
- Initiate Activities
3 Months - Trend Analysis (Are the local causes of instability being mitigated?)
6 Months - Local Instability Analysis. Is the area more stable? - Change activities as required
9 Months - Continued Azimuth Checks.
(then quarterly) - Provide left/right correction.
Helps surmount “stove pipes” by providing a common view of the sources of instability
Provides a prioritization mechanism for activities in insecure areas
Provides a framework to determine when traditional long-term development activities can be initiated
Fosters more effective programming because the population identifies sources of instability, priorities, and potential activities
Provides data for Monitoring and Evaluation of activities – both their performance (Output) and stabilization impact (Effect)
Steady flow of data facilitates trend analysis and consistency throughout personnel rotations
Empowers FPOs and tactical military units, the focal point for successful Stability Ops
Provides StratComm themes that resonates with the local population
Key: Programming is based on knowledge—not assumptions and the population is the “center of gravity.”TCAPF Benefits
QUESTIONS? of the sources of instability
Dr. Jim Derleth
Dr. Tobie Whitman