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Потепление климата – новая проблема общественного здоровья приполярного населения

Потепление климата – новая проблема общественного здоровья приполярного населения Climate warming – new problem of subpolar public health in Russia Профессор Борис Ревич Prof. Boris Revich.

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Потепление климата – новая проблема общественного здоровья приполярного населения

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  1. Потепление климата – новая проблема общественного здоровья приполярного населения Climate warming – new problem of subpolar public health in Russia Профессор Борис Ревич Prof. Boris Revich

  2. Аномалии осредненной по территории России среднегодовой температуры воздуха за период 1936-2005 гг. (www.meteorf.ru/klimat05)

  3. T –Yakutsk-1950-1995

  4. Ожидаемые к середине ХХI века изменения средней годовой температуры воздуха для основных регионов РоссииExpected by 2050 Increments of Annual Average Temperaturesin Russian Regions Национальный доклад по проблемам изменения климата Минэкономразвития России, National Report on Climate Change, Ministry of Economic Development, 2003

  5. Изменение климатаи здоровье всеверной России – инфекционные заболевания !!!Геморрагические лихорадки– движение на север !! Деградация территорий вечной мерзлоты – проблемы с инженерными коммуникациями Сокращение площадей на 12-15%, перемещение границы на 160-200 км севернее ОКИ , Якутия, 2001, брюшной тиф !! Паразитозы – дирофиляриатоз – движение на север ! Псевдотуберкулез, листериоз !? Клещевой энцефалит, туляремия

  6. Потепление климата- инфекционные заболевания Лихорадка Западного Нила – в 1999 году – вспышки заболевания среди жителей Волгоградской и Астраханской областей, Краснодарского края.

  7. >500 Число случаев ЛЗН >35 32 15 14 >5 Лихорадка Западного Нила в России в 1999 г. Краснодар Волгоград Астрахань Волгоград (> 500 случаев, 38 смертей); Астрахань (> 90 случаев, 5 смертей); Краснодар (> 40 случаев, 3 смерти). А.Е.Платонов, ЦНИИ эпидемиологии МЗ РФ

  8. Клещевой энцефалит • ØБолее раннее начало периода нападения клещей на людей (Северо-Запад России) • Рост заболеваемости клещевым энцефалитом - в год заболевает 5-10 тыс. человек • Расширение ареала за счет Северо-Западного и Приволжского регионов. Высокие показатели заболеваемости в Сибири и на Дальнем Востоке • Ixodes Persulcatus – сдвиг теплового барьерав Якутии _!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  9. Геморрагические лихорадки • Лихорадка Крым-Конго. • Южные регионы России, летальные исходы • Омская геморрагическая лихорадка - Природные очаги в Западной Сибири и Казахстане. Тенденция к ее возвращению и распространению на север.

  10. Особо опасные инфекции • Сибирская язва: • Большое количество стационарно неблагополучных пунктов по сибирской язве. • Возбудитель сибирской язвы в виде спор может десятки лет находиться в почве. • В случае потепления в зонах вечной мерзлоты могут создаться благоприятные условия для вегетации бактерий с высоко вероятным инфицированием восприимчивых животных и опосредованно заражением людей.

  11. Наводнения на севере России

  12. T and Public Health:Arctic and Subarctic cities, 7 - more 100 thous. peoples13 - more 20 thous.peoplesUrban population -2 2000th

  13. Project: Climate, Air Pollution and Mortality in Moscow in 2000-2005 • Center of Demography and Human Ecology of Institute of Forecasting, Russian Academy of Science, Moscow • Environmental Monitoring • Meteorology Observatory of Moscow State University • Environmental Defense (USA)

  14. Source: Moscow Environment and Climate Reference Book, 2003, vol.1, 173.

  15. Summer vs. winter concentrations of РМ10, NO2 andO3in 2000-05, ug/m3 (MosEcoMonitoring data)

  16. Regression Equation of Daily Pollution on Daily Temperature Pollution = Const +βTlag + ε

  17. Summer (2003 – 2005)Regression coefficients of proportionality between NO2 and T with different time lags in days

  18. Summer (2003 – 2005) Regression coefficients of proportionality between PM10 and T with different time lags in days

  19. SummerТ and Concentrations wave in August of 2004

  20. Winter (2003 – 2005) Regression coefficients of proportionality between PM10 and T with different time lags

  21. Number of days with extremely high (in summer) and extremely low (in winter) daily average temperatures in 2000 – 2005

  22. Summer Heat Waves: 2001 and 2002. • Energy system failure, “Black-out” of May 25th, 2005

  23. Heat wave of July’01 and consequent increase of daily mortality from all causes, all ages

  24. Moscow, Summer’02 • Extremely high temperatures: 16 days with daily Тmax above 29 °С, accompanied with smog situation – 27 days with haze, high level of air pollution • Low visibility on highways • Airports in Moscow Region closed for weather • Smell of smoke, “empyreuma” • Eye irritation, breathing problems, headache, etc.

  25. Results of regression analysis – T-related increase in daily mortality • Total mortality of males: • Yt = 146 + (1.18±0.45)T0 • IHDof males: • Yt = 33+ (0.51±0.19)T0

  26. Results of regression analysis – temperature-related increase in daily mortality • Cerebrovascular diseases of males: Yt = 23.6 + (0.6±0.2)T0, Yt = 14.7 + (0.98±0.19)T-1 (T-1 –temperature on previous day ) • Mortality of malesfrom external causes: Yt = 18.9 + (0.40±0.19)T0

  27. Health consequences of heat wave in July’02 632 additional deaths as direct result of heat wave

  28. Moscow.May 25th, 2005 • Warm weather • Accident at thermal power station • Sharp increase of PM10 concentrations: from average value of 33 ug/m3 to extreme of 71 ug/m3, NO2 concentrations within the norm (MosEcoMonitoring data)

  29. Cold wave – January’06 Age group 75 +: • 142 additional deaths from all causes ( except external), • including 61 additional deaths from IHD

  30. Т, air pollution and mortality in Moscow in 2002 – 2005 4 causes included in the analysis: • All cases, except external • IHD (I20-25) • Cerebrovascular diseases (myocardial infarction, cerebrovascular accidents) (I 60-69) • Chronic lower respiratory diseases (bronchitis, emphysema, asthma, asthmatic status) (J40-47)

  31. Seasonal variations of mortality from all causes (except external) in age group 75+. 30-day moving average for 2000 – 2004 Winter 2000 Winter 2001 Winter 2002 Winter 2003 Winter 2004 summer 2000 summer 2001 summer 2002 summer 2003 summer 2004

  32. Т-mortality curve for Moscow and “T of maximum comfort” (2000-2005)

  33. Daily Mortality-T relationship in Moscow, 2000 - 2005 • Moscow: linear decreasefrom -20 to +19 °С [Revich,Golub, Shaposhnikov, 2006] • London: linear decreasefrom 0 to +150C [Keatinge, Donaldson, 2001]

  34. Results of regression analysis • … and risk factors: • Temperature increase above maximum comfort (+19ºС) • Temperature decrease below maximum comfort (+19ºС) • Increments of daily average concentrations of PM10,, NO2, and O3by 10 µg/м3 • Relative risks were calculated for: • 8 causes of mortality • (4 causes and 2 age groups) • and time lags • 0, 1, …, 6 days

  35. Examples of relative risks of variation of daily average temperature by 1ºC

  36. Relative risks of mortality per 10 µg/м3 increase of daily average concentration of pollutant

  37. Low Temperatures as Health Risk Factor in Russia • North territories make about 64% of total area of the RF • Cold discomfort • Cardio-vascular system • Respiratory tract • Mortality from frostbite • In Russia, about 1,500 people die from frostbite every year, predominantly males over 20y.o. • There are no deaths cased by frostbite registered in European countries with cold climate (Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Iceland)

  38. Climate Change and Human Health in Russian Arctic Region • Infections diseases - Infrastructure break-downs in cryolite zone ! • Emergence and new infectious diseases and parasitosis of sea mammals and humans ? • Change in food – dietary problems ? • Changes in air quality - ? • Problems with traditional hunting of northern aborigines - !

  39. WWF-Russia climate programme Observations of Climate Change Made by Indigenous Inhabitants of the Coastal Regions of Chukotka

  40. Majority of people survived have noticed climate changes

  41. Vladilen Ivanovich Kavry 39 years of ageChukchiMarine Mammal Hunter Has noticed significant climate changes. Ice breaks up a month earlier than it did before. Old ice no longer exists. Walrus stay longer at haul out sites. Birds depart later.

  42. Required research of climate/health in Russia • Infectious diseases and T relationship • Mortality and T relationship in different climate zones (North, Siberia, Far East) • Climate warming and traditional crafts in Arctic

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