Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1
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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1. What is CERO?. Developed for an energy sector with large complexity: a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players

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What is cero
What is CERO? Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1

Developed for an energy sector with large complexity:

a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players

b) need for tailor-made cost-benefit assessments of alternative travel policies

c) Applicable for benchmarking to spread good examples

Engages a broad range of experts and researchers:

Statisticians

Economists

Behaviourists

Travel managers

Technical implementers

Developed in a doctoral thesis at KTH:”Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies”



Macro economic effects from 10 traffic reductions in stockholm county rob rt och jonsson 2006
Macro economic effects from 10% traffic reductions in Stockholm county(Robèrt och Jonsson, 2006)

-750 MSEK accident costs -360 MSEK emission costs -570 MSEK in vehicle time costs

( = 1,68 Billion SEK/year)


Large organizations are important actors
Large organizations are important actors Stockholm county

Decision-makers

Individuals

  • Can facilitate market-oriented traffic planning

  • Can utilize positive ”group mentality”

  • Motivated to spread good examples



Travel costs and emissions walk hand i hand Stockholm county

- Short-term cost cut potential: 200 000-500 000 Euro/1000 employees and year


- “Indirect values” of showing Stockholm countybest practice

IT-sector, energy sector, transport sector, public authorities…



Cero is based on backcasting
CERO is based on Stockholm countybackcasting

Mapping

Travel policies

Target


Why backcasting
Why backcasting? Stockholm county

  • If we know the target, why not use it?

  • Avoid “path-dependency”, focusing on current obstacles and constraints

  • We might well approach a paradigmatic shift where traditional forecasting is insufficient


Target description
Target description Stockholm county

“X% CO2 reductions in consistency with travel cost reductions and employee acceptance”


Mapping
Mapping Stockholm county


Benchmarking Stockholm county


Internal benchmarking (LFV) Stockholm county


Problem with climate targets
Problem with climate targets: Stockholm county

% - reductions are appropriate for emission audits but hard to follow-up in policy terms

%CO2




Why transforming the emission target
Why transforming the emission target? Stockholm county

  • Facilitates efficiency rankings, cost-benefit analyses and follow-ups between alternative policies

  • Reduces the level of “fuzziness” regarding potential emission impacts

  • Helps strategic planning by keeping track on factors that might change over time (u1, u2, N, s, Y…)


Modules of tailor made 1 co2 reductions commute trips
Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions Stockholm county(commute trips)

  • 31 car commuters switch to public transport

  • Train tickets to 4 commuters with longest commute distance

  • Encourage 38 car commuters to renewable fuel cars

  • Allow telecommuting at least once a month

  • Offer eco-driving to at least ¼ of staff

  • Encourage at least 191 car commuters with commute distance 0,5-6km to cycle


Modules of tailor made 1 co2 reductions business trips
Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions Stockholm county(business trips)

  • Replace 7% of business trips by car to public transport

    Annual cost reduction 1,1 Mkr

  • Replace 4% of business trips by car to virtual meetings

    Annual cost reduction 2,3 Mkr

  • Replace all business trips with private car to car sharing

    Costs unchanged

  • Replace 2% of aviation trips abroad to virtual meetings Cost reduction 540.000 kr

  • Replace 3% av domestic aviation to train

    Cost reduction215.000 kr


A policy package targeting 40 co 2 reductions
A policy package targeting 40% CO Stockholm county2-reductions…


Labour productivity effects
Labour productivity effects Stockholm county


Climate compensation as a last step
Climate compensation as a last step… Stockholm county

Energy use

Renewable energy use

Climate compensations

Year

+ Could increase profitability from emission reductions

- Could pacify good local initiatives and ideas


The cero process
The CERO process Stockholm county


To sum up: Stockholm county- Make climate travel targets tangible- Identify economically optimized strategies- Emphasize employee benefits- Apply benchmarking to spread ”best practice”


Thank you jesper l johansson@wspgroup se 46 70 630 51 50
Thank you! Stockholm [email protected]+46 70 630 51 50


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