Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1
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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1. What is CERO?. Developed for an energy sector with large complexity: a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players

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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1

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Rob rt m 2009 international journal of sustainable transportation vol 3 no 1

Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1


What is cero

What is CERO?

Developed for an energy sector with large complexity:

a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players

b) need for tailor-made cost-benefit assessments of alternative travel policies

c) Applicable for benchmarking to spread good examples

Engages a broad range of experts and researchers:

Statisticians

Economists

Behaviourists

Travel managers

Technical implementers

Developed in a doctoral thesis at KTH:”Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies”


Developed with empirical support from large organizations

Developed with empirical support from large organizations


Macro economic effects from 10 traffic reductions in stockholm county rob rt och jonsson 2006

Macro economic effects from 10% traffic reductions in Stockholm county(Robèrt och Jonsson, 2006)

-750 MSEK accident costs -360 MSEK emission costs -570 MSEK in vehicle time costs

( = 1,68 Billion SEK/year)


Large organizations are important actors

Large organizations are important actors

Decision-makers

Individuals

  • Can facilitate market-oriented traffic planning

  • Can utilize positive ”group mentality”

  • Motivated to spread good examples


Why climate targets and travel strategies

Why climate targets and travel strategies?


Rob rt m 2009 international journal of sustainable transportation vol 3 no 1

Travel costs and emissions walk hand i hand

- Short-term cost cut potential: 200 000-500 000 Euro/1000 employees and year


Rob rt m 2009 international journal of sustainable transportation vol 3 no 1

- “Indirect values” of showing best practice

IT-sector, energy sector, transport sector, public authorities…


Corporate social responsibility csr

- Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)


Cero is based on backcasting

CERO is based on backcasting

Mapping

Travel policies

Target


Why backcasting

Why backcasting?

  • If we know the target, why not use it?

  • Avoid “path-dependency”, focusing on current obstacles and constraints

  • We might well approach a paradigmatic shift where traditional forecasting is insufficient


Target description

Target description

“X% CO2 reductions in consistency with travel cost reductions and employee acceptance”


Mapping

Mapping


Rob rt m 2009 international journal of sustainable transportation vol 3 no 1

Benchmarking


Rob rt m 2009 international journal of sustainable transportation vol 3 no 1

Internal benchmarking (LFV)


Problem with climate targets

Problem with climate targets:

% - reductions are appropriate for emission audits but hard to follow-up in policy terms

%CO2


Designing target oriented travel policies

Designing target-oriented travel policies

%CO2


Transforming the backcasting target

Transforming the backcasting target


Why transforming the emission target

Why transforming the emission target?

  • Facilitates efficiency rankings, cost-benefit analyses and follow-ups between alternative policies

  • Reduces the level of “fuzziness” regarding potential emission impacts

  • Helps strategic planning by keeping track on factors that might change over time (u1, u2, N, s, Y…)


Modules of tailor made 1 co2 reductions commute trips

Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions(commute trips)

  • 31 car commuters switch to public transport

  • Train tickets to 4 commuters with longest commute distance

  • Encourage 38 car commuters to renewable fuel cars

  • Allow telecommuting at least once a month

  • Offer eco-driving to at least ¼ of staff

  • Encourage at least 191 car commuters with commute distance 0,5-6km to cycle


Modules of tailor made 1 co2 reductions business trips

Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions(business trips)

  • Replace 7% of business trips by car to public transport

    Annual cost reduction 1,1 Mkr

  • Replace 4% of business trips by car to virtual meetings

    Annual cost reduction 2,3 Mkr

  • Replace all business trips with private car to car sharing

    Costs unchanged

  • Replace 2% of aviation trips abroad to virtual meetings Cost reduction 540.000 kr

  • Replace 3% av domestic aviation to train

    Cost reduction215.000 kr


A policy package targeting 40 co 2 reductions

A policy package targeting 40% CO2-reductions…


Labour productivity effects

Labour productivity effects


Climate compensation as a last step

Climate compensation as a last step…

Energy use

Renewable energy use

Climate compensations

Year

+ Could increase profitability from emission reductions

- Could pacify good local initiatives and ideas


The cero process

The CERO process


Rob rt m 2009 international journal of sustainable transportation vol 3 no 1

To sum up:- Make climate travel targets tangible- Identify economically optimized strategies- Emphasize employee benefits- Apply benchmarking to spread ”best practice”


Thank you jesper l johansson@wspgroup se 46 70 630 51 50

Thank [email protected]+46 70 630 51 50


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