Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1
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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1. What is CERO?. Developed for an energy sector with large complexity: a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players

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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1

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Robèrt, M. (2009). International Journal of Sustainable Transportation Vol. 3, No. 1


What is CERO?

Developed for an energy sector with large complexity:

a) travel behaviour needs to be modelled explicitly to get a bottom-up perspective of key players

b) need for tailor-made cost-benefit assessments of alternative travel policies

c) Applicable for benchmarking to spread good examples

Engages a broad range of experts and researchers:

Statisticians

Economists

Behaviourists

Travel managers

Technical implementers

Developed in a doctoral thesis at KTH:”Mobility Management and Climate Change Policies”


Developed with empirical support from large organizations


Macro economic effects from 10% traffic reductions in Stockholm county(Robèrt och Jonsson, 2006)

-750 MSEK accident costs -360 MSEK emission costs -570 MSEK in vehicle time costs

( = 1,68 Billion SEK/year)


Large organizations are important actors

Decision-makers

Individuals

  • Can facilitate market-oriented traffic planning

  • Can utilize positive ”group mentality”

  • Motivated to spread good examples


Why climate targets and travel strategies?


Travel costs and emissions walk hand i hand

- Short-term cost cut potential: 200 000-500 000 Euro/1000 employees and year


- “Indirect values” of showing best practice

IT-sector, energy sector, transport sector, public authorities…


- Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)


CERO is based on backcasting

Mapping

Travel policies

Target


Why backcasting?

  • If we know the target, why not use it?

  • Avoid “path-dependency”, focusing on current obstacles and constraints

  • We might well approach a paradigmatic shift where traditional forecasting is insufficient


Target description

“X% CO2 reductions in consistency with travel cost reductions and employee acceptance”


Mapping


Benchmarking


Internal benchmarking (LFV)


Problem with climate targets:

% - reductions are appropriate for emission audits but hard to follow-up in policy terms

%CO2


Designing target-oriented travel policies

%CO2


Transforming the backcasting target


Why transforming the emission target?

  • Facilitates efficiency rankings, cost-benefit analyses and follow-ups between alternative policies

  • Reduces the level of “fuzziness” regarding potential emission impacts

  • Helps strategic planning by keeping track on factors that might change over time (u1, u2, N, s, Y…)


Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions(commute trips)

  • 31 car commuters switch to public transport

  • Train tickets to 4 commuters with longest commute distance

  • Encourage 38 car commuters to renewable fuel cars

  • Allow telecommuting at least once a month

  • Offer eco-driving to at least ¼ of staff

  • Encourage at least 191 car commuters with commute distance 0,5-6km to cycle


Modules of tailor made 1% CO2-reductions(business trips)

  • Replace 7% of business trips by car to public transport

    Annual cost reduction 1,1 Mkr

  • Replace 4% of business trips by car to virtual meetings

    Annual cost reduction 2,3 Mkr

  • Replace all business trips with private car to car sharing

    Costs unchanged

  • Replace 2% of aviation trips abroad to virtual meetings Cost reduction 540.000 kr

  • Replace 3% av domestic aviation to train

    Cost reduction215.000 kr


A policy package targeting 40% CO2-reductions…


Labour productivity effects


Climate compensation as a last step…

Energy use

Renewable energy use

Climate compensations

Year

+ Could increase profitability from emission reductions

- Could pacify good local initiatives and ideas


The CERO process


To sum up:- Make climate travel targets tangible- Identify economically optimized strategies- Emphasize employee benefits- Apply benchmarking to spread ”best practice”


Thank [email protected]+46 70 630 51 50


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