the wrong trousers can we give europe a climate policy that might actually work
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The Wrong Trousers : can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?. A talk to the EIN seminar Madrid 7 th February 2008 By Professor G Prins London School of Economics & Political Science. The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy G.Prins

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the wrong trousers can we give europe a climate policy that might actually work

The Wrong Trousers:can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?

A talk to the EIN seminar

Madrid

7th February 2008

By

Professor G Prins

London School of Economics & Political Science

slide2

The Wrong Trousers:

Radically Rethinking Climate Policy

G.Prins

Director, The Mackinder Centre for the Study of Long Wave Events, London School of Economics

S Rayner

Director, The James Martin Institute for Science & Civilisation, University of Oxford

(published 18th November 07)

Kyoto was the Wrong Trousers which have marched us involuntarily to unintended and unwelcome destinations.

some inconvenient truths
Some inconvenient truths
  • The Kyoto formula for climate policy (international treaty-bound output targets of CO2 fixed to specified dates eg 20% by 2020) has failed even to achieve reductions in rate of increase
  • The Kyoto Protocol failed even in Europe and Japan which enthusiastically adopted it and have paid huge sums to meet targets via “carbon offset” credits
  • It cannot be fixed by tightening targets: that will make it break faster. - the wrong trousers are being replaced with new wrong trousers
  • FIFTEEN YEARS have been wasted
what happened at bali
What happened at Bali?
  • a policy drive called for a bigger and better Kyoto formula. That position was defeated.
  • world leadership on climate policy has now shifted from Europe to the Pacific (already plain at Bali and doubly reconfirmed at the MEM Honolulu last week): a nexus of Canada, China, Japan, India and the USA
  • the US was not isolated on substance – as became evident at the Major Emitters Meeting in Honolulu
what happens next
What happens next?
  • The de facto diplomatic driver for climate policy now shifts from the multilateral UNFCCC process to the ‘big emitters’ conferences.
  • the main event in 2008 will be the holding of the G-8 at Hokkaido
  • The Gore/EU/UK New Labour government position seems emotionally unable to move from its present commitment.
  • the main metric will shift to one framed around energy intensity by sector
what will break
What will break?
  • The proposition that ‘Kyoto is the only show in town’.
  • the overheated representation of the science of climate change
  • further problems with the European Union’s flawed Emissions Trading Scheme
slide8

1.Global CO2 Emissions and Anticipated Levels

Drastic reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions are necessary for the entire planet to tackle climate change.

Source: IEA WEO2007

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