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The Wrong Trousers : can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?

The Wrong Trousers : can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?. A talk to the EIN seminar Madrid 7 th February 2008 By Professor G Prins London School of Economics & Political Science. The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy G.Prins

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The Wrong Trousers : can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?

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  1. The Wrong Trousers:can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work? A talk to the EIN seminar Madrid 7th February 2008 By Professor G Prins London School of Economics & Political Science

  2. The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy G.Prins Director, The Mackinder Centre for the Study of Long Wave Events, London School of Economics S Rayner Director, The James Martin Institute for Science & Civilisation, University of Oxford (published 18th November 07) Kyoto was the Wrong Trousers which have marched us involuntarily to unintended and unwelcome destinations.

  3. Some inconvenient truths • The Kyoto formula for climate policy (international treaty-bound output targets of CO2 fixed to specified dates eg 20% by 2020) has failed even to achieve reductions in rate of increase • The Kyoto Protocol failed even in Europe and Japan which enthusiastically adopted it and have paid huge sums to meet targets via “carbon offset” credits • It cannot be fixed by tightening targets: that will make it break faster. - the wrong trousers are being replaced with new wrong trousers • FIFTEEN YEARS have been wasted

  4. What happened at Bali? • a policy drive called for a bigger and better Kyoto formula. That position was defeated. • world leadership on climate policy has now shifted from Europe to the Pacific (already plain at Bali and doubly reconfirmed at the MEM Honolulu last week): a nexus of Canada, China, Japan, India and the USA • the US was not isolated on substance – as became evident at the Major Emitters Meeting in Honolulu

  5. What happens next? • The de facto diplomatic driver for climate policy now shifts from the multilateral UNFCCC process to the ‘big emitters’ conferences. • the main event in 2008 will be the holding of the G-8 at Hokkaido • The Gore/EU/UK New Labour government position seems emotionally unable to move from its present commitment. • the main metric will shift to one framed around energy intensity by sector

  6. What will break? • The proposition that ‘Kyoto is the only show in town’. • the overheated representation of the science of climate change • further problems with the European Union’s flawed Emissions Trading Scheme

  7. Smoothing the hump: an issue in structural security ?

  8. 1．Global CO2 Emissions and Anticipated Levels Drastic reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions are necessary for the entire planet to tackle climate change. Source: IEA WEO2007 2

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