The wrong trousers can we give europe a climate policy that might actually work
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The Wrong Trousers : can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?. A talk to the EIN seminar Madrid 7 th February 2008 By Professor G Prins London School of Economics & Political Science. The Wrong Trousers: Radically Rethinking Climate Policy G.Prins

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The Wrong Trousers : can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?

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The wrong trousers can we give europe a climate policy that might actually work

The Wrong Trousers:can we give Europe a climate policy that might actually work?

A talk to the EIN seminar

Madrid

7th February 2008

By

Professor G Prins

London School of Economics & Political Science


The wrong trousers can we give europe a climate policy that might actually work

The Wrong Trousers:

Radically Rethinking Climate Policy

G.Prins

Director, The Mackinder Centre for the Study of Long Wave Events, London School of Economics

S Rayner

Director, The James Martin Institute for Science & Civilisation, University of Oxford

(published 18th November 07)

Kyoto was the Wrong Trousers which have marched us involuntarily to unintended and unwelcome destinations.


Some inconvenient truths

Some inconvenient truths

  • The Kyoto formula for climate policy (international treaty-bound output targets of CO2 fixed to specified dates eg 20% by 2020) has failed even to achieve reductions in rate of increase

  • The Kyoto Protocol failed even in Europe and Japan which enthusiastically adopted it and have paid huge sums to meet targets via “carbon offset” credits

  • It cannot be fixed by tightening targets: that will make it break faster. - the wrong trousers are being replaced with new wrong trousers

  • FIFTEEN YEARS have been wasted


What happened at bali

What happened at Bali?

  • a policy drive called for a bigger and better Kyoto formula. That position was defeated.

  • world leadership on climate policy has now shifted from Europe to the Pacific (already plain at Bali and doubly reconfirmed at the MEM Honolulu last week): a nexus of Canada, China, Japan, India and the USA

  • the US was not isolated on substance – as became evident at the Major Emitters Meeting in Honolulu


What happens next

What happens next?

  • The de facto diplomatic driver for climate policy now shifts from the multilateral UNFCCC process to the ‘big emitters’ conferences.

  • the main event in 2008 will be the holding of the G-8 at Hokkaido

  • The Gore/EU/UK New Labour government position seems emotionally unable to move from its present commitment.

  • the main metric will shift to one framed around energy intensity by sector


What will break

What will break?

  • The proposition that ‘Kyoto is the only show in town’.

  • the overheated representation of the science of climate change

  • further problems with the European Union’s flawed Emissions Trading Scheme


The wrong trousers can we give europe a climate policy that might actually work

Smoothing the hump: an issue in structural security

?


The wrong trousers can we give europe a climate policy that might actually work

1.Global CO2 Emissions and Anticipated Levels

Drastic reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions are necessary for the entire planet to tackle climate change.

Source: IEA WEO2007

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