The national development plan, national system of innovation and higher education

1. Michael Kahn Stellenbosch University, Matieland 7602 mikejkahn@gmail.com The national development plan, national system of innovation and higher education The Second HESA Biennial Research and Innovation Conference CSIR, 3-4 April 2012 Research and Innovation Associates

2. HSBC: The World in 2050 China #1 United States #2 India #3 Brazil #7 (wrong! It’s already #6) Egypt #19 (that’s before the Arab Spring!) ZA # 30 (down from #28)

3. South Africa: three crises and three economies • Crisis of exclusion: poverty • Crisis of growth: globalization and technological change • Crisis of the environment: going grey, not green • Economy 1: Formal and wealthy ~ like Norway, but warmer • Economy 2: Informal and poor ~ unquantified • Economy 3: Offshore ~ the ‘Brand’ Trek over the Limpopo

5. London Houston Perth Cape Town

6. Bits of the puzzle… Employment in Mining Employment in Agriculture

7. Composition of GDP

8. So where to?

9. A national innovation system is …. S&T SERVICES INFORMAL SECTOR UTILITIES UNIVERSITIES BUSINESS 55 GOVT. DEPTS INSTITUTES & MUSEUMS 9 SCIENCE COUNCILS CULTURAL POLITICAL ASSOCIATONS ENVIRONMENTAL LINKAGES 100s NGOs LEGAL STANDARDS I.P. RIGHTS

10. A missing piece • Korea 343 USPTO patents over 1963 to 1987 • ZA 1744 USPTO patents over 1963 to 1987 • Korea 57625 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008 • ZA 2232 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008 • Norway 3898 USPTO patents over 1987 to 2008 • There is no IP in an ingot of gold or a tonne of coal • High tech exports comprise small volume of exports • Our manufacturers seek technology via foreign partners • What are we going to be doing differently?

11. Enhancing competitiveness in the Platinum Group Mining cluster MANUFACTURING TECHNOLOGY Haulage Refrigeration , generators & compressors Jewelery INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY Electronic detonators Sensors Simulation Tomography Control systems Remote sensing PLATINUM GROUP MINING Ore extraction, crushing & separation technology Pumps, coolers, machines & conveyors MARKETS Mining technology Project management expertise EXPLORATION Geotechnology Mapping BIOTECHNOLOGY Bioleaching Biodegration CATALYSTS & FINE CHEMICALS Auto catalysts Fuel cell catalysts Pharamceuticals ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGY Water management Chemical recycling Zero emission technologies CHEMICAL TECHNOLOGY Surfactants Flocculants Explosives

12. Korea – GERD/GDP; BERD/GERD From 0,8% to 1,5% => from 18500 to 41500 researchers

13. Thanda Bantu… Full-time equivalent researchers

14. Ensure policy consistency Sub-output 5.1.3: Increase the output of doctoral graduates to 1,350 per annum by 2014.

15. From Apartheid Development State to Lean State to Developmental State II? RDP GEAR ASGISA ….. The New Growth Path (The Nationalization Debate) Industrial Policy Action Plan 1,2,3 Green Paper on PSET Vision for 2030

16. A Development State is … “A developmental state may be perceived as one that “authoritatively, credibly, legitimately and in a binding manner is able to formulate and implement its policies and programmes. This entails possessing a developmentalist ideology that privileges industrialization, economic growth and expansion of human capabilities. Such a state also has to be able to construct and deploy the institutional architecture within the state and mobilize society towards the realization of its developmentalist project. A developmental state is therefore defined in political, ideological and institutional terms.” (ECA, 2011).

17. NPC diagnostic • Too few South Africans work • The quality of school education for most black people is sub-standard • Poorly located and inadequate infrastructure limits social inclusion and faster economic growth • Spatial challenges continue to marginalise the poor • South Africa’s growth path is highly resource-intensive and hence unsustainable • The ailing public health system confronts a massive disease burden • The performance of the public service is uneven • Corruption undermines state legitimacy and service delivery • South Africa remains a divided society

18. Where are the new policies taking us? • New Growth Path: A Workers Utopia where the Competition Commission levels the playing field • Industrial Strategy tries to be all things to all people; lacks focus; weak understanding of innovation • Green Paper on PSET is supply side driven; weak understanding of innovation; inclusion is the main object • Ten Year Innovation Plan – also supply side driven– has captured the research and innovation policy space – deferred to by NGP, IPAP, PSET and NPC

19. Concerned scientists submission to NPC … • Much can be achieved with existing technologies. It is not so much a case of a poverty of technology, as a poverty of politics. • Constructing and implementing solutions requires analytic and technical skill, careful navigation of political constraints, and willingness to learn from one’s mistakes. • Technology, through the digital revolution, plays a considerable part in detecting and promoting corruption, and in service delivery. • Morality and shared values go to the heart of healing our national divides. The social sciences and humanities play the key role in understanding and perhaps mitigating these issues.

20. Ours is a small science and innovation system comparable with Norway, whose population is ten times smaller. But Norway has 25,000 FTE researchers compared with our 19,000. In 2007 we produced 5045 scientific publications; Norway 6815. In 1990 USPTO awards were 115 for both; Norway is now 240, while we are still at 116. Norway’s output of PhDs/million of population was 151, compared with our 27. One exception is the registration of plant cultivars where we are internationally competitive. SET graduates currently comprise 20% of the total. • This should rise to 40% over the next ten to fifteen years.

21. To revitalize postgraduate training we must raise investment levels, hire and retain the best staff, and hunt for this talent locally and globally. We note that our salaries are globally competitive, which implies that the search is one that perhaps requires but a political nod. A sustained and well-funded campaign to train graduates in specific skills, locally and abroad, must be instituted, especially in new and emerging technologies. In order to reduce churn or dropout such a campaign should include measures to build social cohesion in the academic enterprise. • Suspend immigration restrictions for the highly skilled

22. Enhancing higher (vocational and further) education pivots on well-functioning schools that provide quality education in science, mathematics and technology to boys and girls in a well-rounded curriculum. • Re-establish the Dinaledi Academies under DHET

23. One of the tasks of government is to ensure the enabling environment that nurtures such creativity, especially regarding intellectual property rights, an essential step in commercialization. Intangibles require different regulations to the tangibles of physical capital and money. • Review IPR legislation to remove disincentives

24. Foster local design and production especially in capital goods - heavy industry, including energy-efficient power station generators and heat exchangers, locomotives, ships and new generation airships for moving people and heavy loads. This would require cooperation among state-owned enterprises, science councils, the private sector and higher education. At least two policy issues call for attention - ensuring access to local raw materials at prices near cost. • Stipulate that consortia with foreign firms include local production and technology transfer requirements.

25. Enabling people to live with dignity in affordable, fire resistant shelter, near to sources of employment and with access to safe transport is a sine qua non and not rocket science. • Human settlement is a socio-economic and political process, and an engineering issue

26. For the next few decades commodities will dominate the economy. In the same way that infrastructure development may foster industrial diversification, so too for the minerals base. • One appreciates the issue of economies of scale, yet remains perplexed to see steel coil sail away and motor car door panels return. • Local must be lekker

27. The overarching project must be the war on poverty, in all its manifestations: access to services, shelter, safety, and economic and social opportunity. This would necessitate an agency with the sole remit to steer, plan and coordinate such a drive, and for it to be staffed with the high-skilled visionaries who can see the opportunities of the contemporary era and have the flexibility, authority and integrity to take the considered risks that make for such innovation. • Declare war on poverty, under a general staff that coordinates the science and innovation system

28. In our view IPAP is too broad, apparently seeking to make everyone happy. To plan is to choose, and IPAP has not been sharp enough in going for capital goods that are central to the First Economy. Allied to this should be intensification of niche manufacturing and services activities such as catalysis, telemetry, encryption and software engineering. • Build the capitalgoods sector

29. Support the Third Economy, and build the African common market, in all its manifestations, water, mining, manufacturing and services. This would necessitate government and the private sector operating synergistically in the international domain. Such rapprochement can but benefit the domestic economy as well. The project requires skilful diplomacy across the equator and the South Atlantic, and includes tangible, if not essential scientific cooperation in response to climate change, and food and water security. • Food and water security, with mitigation of climate change is the third national project

30. Resuscitate capacity in Foresight • A Presidential Council on Science and Innovation should replace NACI. The Council will be provided with professional research support that will ensure that prioritization and agenda setting are carried out with rigour and vigour, that resources are allocated to a well-defined set of major initiatives, and that the institutional landscape is fit for purpose. • PCRI will cover all facets of innovation – technological, social, public sector, education, and (promote) accountability, transparency and responsiveness. • Establish aPresidential Council on Science & Innovation

31. Higher education … • Vision for 2030 scopes many of the right things!!!! • Celebrate SARChI, the CoEs and ESASTAP !!!! • Celebrate and insist on openness • Re-think the meaning of the majority classroom • Investigate the impact of social class • Remain focused on core competences: “The most important impacts (of higher education) are of an indirect nature, such as through the supply of highly educated and skilled personnel” (Fagerberg, 2006). Build the SET base. • Work with the National Planning Commission to realize Vision for 2030

32. We bring the African ball to the BRIC Club (EU) RUSSIA (USA) CHINA & INDIA BRAZIL Services Resources HR SOUTH AFRICA