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Evaluación del Proyecto sobre Modelos Macroeconométricos. Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid y Juan Carlos Rivas Valdivia SECMCA, San José, Costa Rica, Febrero de 2009. ¿ Quienes evaluaron el desarrollo del Proyecto y sus resultados?.
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Evaluación del Proyecto sobreModelos Macroeconométricos Juan Carlos Moreno-Brid y Juan Carlos Rivas Valdivia SECMCA, San José, Costa Rica, Febrero de 2009
¿Quienes evaluaron el desarrollo del Proyecto y sus resultados? • Secretaría Ejecutiva del Consejo Monetario Centroaméricano (SECMCA), Febrero de 2008. • Evaluación externa: Departamento de Asuntos Económicos y Sociales (DESA), Nueva York, Diciembre de 2008.
Criterios de evaluación de la SECMCA • Evaluación Cuantitativa • Organización y logística de los seminarios-taller; • Papel de los instructores; • Sobre los participantes de los bancos centrales; y, • Sobre el contenido del proyecto. • Evaluación Cualitativa • Modelos econométricos desarrollados; • Diseminación del contenido de los talleres; • Uso de los modelos econométricos; • Foros donde se han presentado los modelos; y, • Temas complementarios y áreas de mejora.
Criterios de la evaluación externa de DESA • Incremento en el uso de la información económica con propósitos de modelación. • Incremento en el uso de tecnologías de la información para análisis de política macroeconómica. • Institucionalización de las actividades de modelación al interior de las instituciones participantes. • Mejoras de cooperación sobre las políticas macroeconómicas y las técnicas econométricas entre los países de la región. • Número de modeladores capacitados y número de aprendices potenciales dentro de las instituciones participantes.
Efectividad del Proyecto “Most of the main results of the project can be consulted at the following web page: http://www3.cepal.org.mx/macroeconometrico/ (last visited in November 13, 2008). In that site one can find a list of the workshops and seminars that took place over the years (to be listed below), as well as the final macroeconomic models for each of the six countries, and for the region as a whole. The web page also contains a dozen of papers by external researchers that were invited to give a talk in some of the workshops, together with about five dozens of PowerPoint presentations by the instructors…”
Eficiencia del Proyecto “All the participants interviewed gave very high grades to the performance of the two instructors, regarding their command of the subjects, the clearness of their lectures, and their willingness to clarify any questions, whether these were expressed in class or by e-mail. This broad satisfaction is quite remarkable given that the participants had at the beginning very different backgrounds in Econometrics. Furthermore, given that most of the models produced during the project were of a monetary nature, as one would expect from central bankers, the teaching task was also complicated by the fact that the monetary regimes in the regions are quite different (among the six economies there is even one that is dollarized).”
Continuidad del Proyecto “The impact of the project among other economists in the participating countries is an important issue, but it is equally so the extents to which benefits from the project are likely to continue after its completion. Regarding this sustainability of the project, there is strong evidence that it is guaranteed for the near future. The strongest indication of that is the fact that the monetary models developed during the project are now used, with minor changes, in all the central banks in the region. As second evidence one can note that in some of the participating countries the main thrust of the project continues alive: during 2008, a year after the conclusion of the project, three different central banks pursued further research on econometric modeling with the help of the former instructors, and at their own expenses…”
Evaluación global “Judging by its effectiveness, efficiency, impact and sustainability, the project was a sound success. Two factors made this outcome even more remarkable. The fact that it was a truly regional project in which, with the help of SECMCA, all workshops and seminars were given without distinction to all the participants. And, secondly, the fact that the models produced by the project dealt mostly with monetary policy, an important area of expertise with which UN agencies are not typically associated with (although, hopefully, they might be from now on).”
Seguimiento… • Fortalecer y ampliar la red de investigadores creada a partir del Proyecto. • Mantener un foro de discusión para diferentes temas de interés para los Bancos Centrales de la región. • Utilizar la página WEB del Proyecto para difundir los documentos de tipo macroeconométrico elaborados por los participantes. • Difundir los documentos seleccionados de la banca central en las publicaciones de la CEPAL y del CMCA. • Buscar la posibilidad de ampliar los alcances del Proyecto con el establecimiento de nuevas etapas y fuentes de financiamiento.
¡Muchas gracias! www.cepal.org
