The Future of Mankind Where are we headed?

1. The Future of MankindWhere are we headed? Thomas Ledbetter

2. Two views of History • “History” is the story of conquest; who ruled when, where the “action” was. • Who won what is completely irrelevant. The only important factor in history is man’s technological achievement. History is the story of how we are coming to understand the world around us, adapt to it, and adapt it to us.

3. We are in the Fourth Age of MankindAnd we know what the fifth and sixth will be. • Hunter / Gatherer Age • About 125,000 years • Basic social unit was the tribe • Technological level is “Tool maker” • Agricultural Age • 6,000 years • Basic social unit was the extended family (dynasties, patriarchy, arranged marriages) • Technological level is “Craftsmanship” • Industrial Age • 300 years (1700 – 2000) • Basic social unit was the nuclear family (“Honey, I’m home!”) • Technological level is “Mass Production” • Information Age • About 70 years (1960-ish to 2030-ish) First Age to transpire completely within a human lifespan • Basic social unit is the individual • Technological level is “Mass Uniqueness” (iPod, Fashion makeovers, individualized design)

4. The Information Age • Began • Computer (1950s) • PC (1980s) • Internet (1990s) • Unlike the Industrial Age, the Information Age is mostly about infrastructure; how things get done; processes. • The world is one market; anyone can buy anything from anywhere (overnight!) • National borders are becoming less relevant • Artificial borders are being created (social groups, political groups, religious groups, etc.)

5. “Ages” • Borders are fuzzy • Concurrent; we still have 1/3rd of the world in Agricultural, 1/3rd in Industrial age • Not evenly distributed • They affect: • Social lives • Political institutions • Day to day individual habits • The nature of Wealth • War • Religion? • Pantheistic, Multi-deistic, Mono-theistic, “New-agey”

6. AndtheNextAge is….

7. The Nano Age • Not “Nanotech” … Nanotech is only part of it! • Nanotech … the idea of using molecules and atoms as tinker toys and lego bricks • Molecular Biology (Biotech)… the idea of adapting what nature has already created for our own uses. • Medical Advances. At the Cellular level. • Genetics: Detect & cure anomalies. • Micro-tech: Think insect sized robots. • Materials Science: New materials engineered from the molecules up. APT & APM • Manufacturing: Self-assembly, very inexpensive • Energy: Fuel cells, Solar reclamation, new fuels • Computing: Molecular scale circuits and memory • Envionment: Everything is sustainable, renewable, recyclable

8. Products of the Nano-Age Materials • Slipperier, Stickier, “intelligent” materials. Elasticity, Strength, Weight, Etc. • Form memory • Polymers, fibers, fabrics, • Intelligent Filters • Intelligent Glues (anti-bodies) • Ceramic engineering • Monolayers Manufacturing • Anything from anything • Extremely inexpensive manufacture • Instantaneous desalinization • Nano-engineered machines need much less maintenance Energy • Fuel Cells • Vastly superior Batteries • 90% Solar energy capture • Sugar as a fuel • Safer nuclear generation • Fusion? Computing • Nano-storage • Optical display systems • Neural networks, learning systems • Speech recognition, human-computer interfaces • Neural-microchip interfaces • Optical computing • Some quantum computing Entertainment • Sports enhancement • Safe recreational drugs Nano-Tech • Atomically Precise Technologies • Atomically Precise Manufacturing • Customized molecular structures • Molecular tools, motors, gears, etc. • Nanobots • Molecular self assembly • Very, Very inexpensive manufacture • Everything is sustainable; Everything is renewable • Selective decomposition … of anything Bio-Tech • Re-purposed proteins • Using DNA, RNA, etc. as manufacturing plants • Understanding replication, applying to non-biology • Understanding growth & healing, applying to non-biology • Nano-sensors, Bioinformatics • Artifical glands; hemoglobin, smarter insulin Medicine • Cancer cured • Heart Disease cures/management • Neural pathways understood, Pain management • Customized medicines, medicine delivery systems • Customized Proteins • Understanding Metabolism • Understanding Digestion • Diagnostics • Tissue engineering, regeneration Genetics • Inherited anomalies identified in utero • Treatments for genetic imbalances • Designer Pets • New foods, less waste • Body modification Micro-tech • Insect sized robots; redundant, inexpensive, disposable • Crop, soil, anything analysis • Cleaning roaches • Micro sensors, transmitters, recorders

9. NanoTech roadmap

10. I believe these to be inevitable • “Ledbetter’s law of inevitability”: Anything that has enough people working together to make it possible, and if it is possible, will become inevitable. • Manufacturing costs plummet as machines do more labor, making more efficient, longer lasting, smarter products • Worldwide elimination of extreme poverty • Economies of Abundance • Most human labor will involve human interaction or creativity; not production

11. When? • We should have most of the tools needed for understanding the rules of the molecular world by 2030. • The first nanoassembler should shortly follow. • Once the basic rules and principles are understood, practical product development will be explosive. There will be a cascade. • The Age will only last 50, maybe only 40 years. • The Engines of Creation, K. Eric Drexler • The Foresight Institute, http://www.foresight.org/

12. What, do you suppose, will the Next Age be…?

13. The Neuro Age • This changes Everything! • Between nano tools and ever more advanced computer modeling, we will understand how the human brain works, at least to the point of a) understanding the mechanisms of memory, and b) understanding why some people are geniuses, and the rest of us aren’t. • We will understand the source of “intelligence”, be it architectural or operational, or both. • We will learn how to selectively cause genius to occur in the next generation. IQ is genetic … therefore if you can manipulate genes, you can optimize them for high intelligence. • There will be born upon this planet, one day, an entire generation of hyper-geniuses. • We will be able to alter our very minds; becoming something other than Human. • Now add in machine-human and computer-human interfaces!

14. This means more than just increasing our IQ We will: • Correct chemical imbalances in the brain • Cure depression, anxiety, manage stress, etc. • Understand the physiological basis of unwanted personality traits • Correct most mental illnesses • Create a “Prozac Nation” • Understand the nature & mechanics of addiction • No longer be slaves to our lower natures. Unless we want them. • Increase moral aptitude (goes hand in hand with IQ)

15. Consider the case of Gregory R Smith Born: June 9, 1989 • At 3 months, he said “dada”. Other words and full sentences quickly followed. • He walked by himself at 9 months, and toilet-trained himself at about a year. • He was adding numbers and correcting grammar at 18 months. • As a kindergartner, he could already do simple algebra, draw molecules and read Jules Verne. • At 5, he surpassed his parents intellectually. • At 6, he began editing his textbooks. He filled his math book with sticky notes pointing out mistakes. • Now in Florida, he went from 2nd grade to 9th in one year. • At age 8, he began high school and founded "IEM for non-violence" -- "I" for inspiration, "E" for education and "M" for motivation; a foundation for spreading world peace. • He graduated from high school a day prior to his 10th birthday. • Attended Randolph-Macon College (Va.) at age 10, and founded International Youth Advocates, an umbrella organization to empower children’s voices for world peace. • At age 11 he toured six countries on four continents for IYA and founded an inter-tribal school in war-torn Kenya. • He has met national presidents and has spoken at the United Nations. • At age 12, he was nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. • He graduated with a BS in Mathematics at age 13. • Joined Univ. of Virginia at age 14 as a Doctoral Candidate in Mathematics. • In 2004, he was again nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize. (age: 14) • Graduated cum laude with a master’s degree in Mathematics at age 16. • Greg wants to stay in college until he’s 18 and can finally play college football. He intends on getting four doctorate degrees: Mathematics, Biomedical Research, Aerospace Engineering, and International Relations. • He has been nominated a third time for the Nobel Peace Prize. • Greg has a long-term goal of becoming the President of the United States. And he’s serious about it. http://www.starwheels.com/infopage.php?pagename=gregorysmith

16. The Singularity • The “singularity” is a point in time of which, everything after it is completely different from everything before it. • According to Ray Kurzweil, around 2045 machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence. At this point, humanity becomes irrelevant. • There are many critics of Kurzweil’s optimism about artificial intelligence, however there is strong support for a singularity of some sort coming, almost certainly before 2100. • Between: • Our ability to genetically alter ourselves • Our ability to extend ourselves both mechanically and mentally • The Introduction of human-computer interfaces • Our Understanding of the nature of Intelligence • Our ability to manipulate the world around us at the molecular scale We will become something else. We will become Transhuman. • Evolution is over. We control it now. • I believe we will engineer ourselves, our offspring, and the Earth around us. • See Ray Kurzweil, “The Singularity is Near” http://books.google.com

17. So …. Where are we “going”? • It won’t all be smooth • When it happens, it will happen very fast • There may be a catastrophe or two. Or three. • It won’t be evenly distributed, although eventually it will be able to be. • We will remake the Earth into a “theme park for humans” • We will see a wide variety of trans-humans • Morality increases with intelligence. The nano-age alone will decrease crime significantly, with human engineering we will certainly eliminate crime, and perhaps even, war. • We will engage in Mega-Projects … to keep busy.

18. What will be the “end state” of humanity? • “Humans” will completely control their evolution, personalities, minds, and will be able to control or eliminate their “primal” instincts and urges. • There will be no violent crime; and war will be improbable since as soon as one group causes harm, the rest of humanity will know about it and unify to defeat them. • There will be a vast variety of humans, from super-athletes to just bizarre-for-the-heck-of-it body and mind mods. • Instant and always-on communication will create something of a hive-mind, or actually, a form of global consciousness. It will be Brahman. • Work will still need to be done, but primarily to satisfy self-actualization needs. Automation will do most labor. • What people will “do” is mostly entertain one another. It will be an entirely social world. Ironically it will be much like an Amazonian tribe in an plentiful environment. • We will remake the Earth to suit our needs, as much as is possible.

19. What can go Wrong? • Lots of things … but we’ll have the intelligence and foresight and enlightened self-interest to stop doing really stupid things to ourselves. • Remember: “Never create what you can’t destroy”

20. Predicting the year 15,000 • We’ll still have human(-ish) bodies. • We’ll still wear clothes. • Most social conventions will be completely different. • We’ll still have kids, and have problems raising them. • Women will gossip, men will be competitive. • Women will still doll themselves up, men will still leave underwear on the floor • We will still marry. We will still cheat. • We’ll still have earthquakes, volcanism, hurricanes . • We’ll be exploring space for an alternate world, for a very, very long time. We’ll be terraforming planets. • We’ll essentially be spending our lives entertaining ourselves and each other. • Basic needs & desires will be ubiquitous. • We will have created an artificial “universal consciousness” • We will still have basic human needs: wanting acceptance, feeling valued and useful, being creative. • Think of humanity during the hunter/gatherer Age. It’ll be like that, with abundance. • At some point, evolution will stop. • Unknown: any form of desirable immortality • (We won’t need to reproduce to evolve!) • The asteroid is coming!

21. Comments? I want… • To be criticized. This is just my world view from an admittedly very biased viewpoint. I’m almost certainly wrong. • But where? How? • This stuff has been accumulating in my head for over 25 years … it’s time to let it out! • None of this has been exposed to critical examination yet … so have at it!