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NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS 2014-2025

NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS 2014-2025. 3,000. 2,500. Reference Case. Historical. Moderate, Constrained Efficiency. 2,000. Moderate, Full Efficiency. CO 2 Emissions (short tons). Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency. 1,500. Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency, PTC.

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NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS 2014-2025

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  1. NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS 2014-2025 3,000 2,500 Reference Case Historical Moderate, Constrained Efficiency 2,000 Moderate, Full Efficiency CO2Emissions (short tons) Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency 1,500 Ambitious, Constrained Efficiency, PTC Ambitious, Full Efficiency 1,000 500 - 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

  2. NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE GENERATION MIX: 2012 vs. 2020 REFERENCE CASE 2020 Reference 2012 Actual

  3. NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE PROJECTED GENERATION MIX IN 2020

  4. NRDC POLICY CASES vs REFERENCE CASE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS IN 2020: CO2 SO2 NOx

  5. WESTERN REGIONAL RESULTS EMISSION REDUCTIONS IN 2020: CO2 SO2 NOx

  6. PNW AND CA+OTHERWEST REGIONAL RESULTS CO2 CREDIT PRICES ($/Ton)

  7. INTERSTATE ISSUES FOR CONSIDERATION Exporter states • Power leaves the state, emissions remain • States exporting to CA: emissions already counted under AB-32? Importerstates • Ability to select compliance pathways potentially limited by decisions in exporting states • Changes in out of state purchases reflected? • Out of state renewables and REC purchases? A multi-statecompliance agreement would allow each state to plan around utility portfolios, whether or not they cross state lines

  8. HIGHER AND LOWER COST OPTIONS TO REACH THE SAME EMISSIONS LEVELS: NORTHWEST EXAMPLE The Northwest Power and Conservation Council analyze three pathways to ~35% emissions reductions by 2029 for the region, including imported power • $45/ton carbon tax: 14% revenue requirement increase • Cap and trade with free allocation: 2% revenue requirement increase • Phased coal retirement: 15% revenue requirement increase All scenariosincluded 5900 MW of additional Energy Efficiency

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