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Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test. John Otte Bryce Knorr. Another Time, Another Place. Your Challenge. 937.5 acres of corn 160 bpa trend yield = 150000 expected bu $655 cost of production, includes trend-adjusted RP @ 85% On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo.
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Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test John Otte Bryce Knorr
Your Challenge • 937.5 acres of corn • 160 bpa trend yield = 150000 expected bu • $655 cost of production, includes trend-adjusted RP @ 85% • On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo. • 100,000 bu. on-farm storage
The Rules • Make a 2014 plan with spot sales, cash contracts and/or options. Zero basis • Sell at harvest 10/15/14 or on-farm storage only. • Seven windows: Jan (Now!), March, Summer, Harvest, Nov/Dec, Jan/March (‘15), April/July (‘15) • 2014 crop must be sold by Sept. 1, 2015 • Random selection, according to historical probabilities
March Planting Intentions Are Down 2% From Expectations
Weather Rally! June/July rally is 17% over Jan. 1 price, or $5.245.
Bumper Crop: Yields Are 12% Above Trend. 167,062 bu Average Harvest Futures $3.35 (July ‘15 $3.70)
Small Fall Rebound 2% rally to only $3.775
Market Stalls 1% rally to only $3.7375
Price Finally Collapse Rally high of $3.33 is 10% below harvest
Late Rally Helps Sept. 1 price equals $3.70