1 / 39

Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test

Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test. John Otte Bryce Knorr. Another Time, Another Place. Your Challenge. 937.5 acres of corn 160 bpa trend yield = 150000 expected bu $655 cost of production, includes trend-adjusted RP @ 85% On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo.

gaenor
Download Presentation

Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Put Your Marketing Plan To The Test John Otte Bryce Knorr

  2. Another Time, Another Place

  3. Your Challenge • 937.5 acres of corn • 160 bpa trend yield = 150000 expected bu • $655 cost of production, includes trend-adjusted RP @ 85% • On-farm storage cost 3 cents/mo. • 100,000 bu. on-farm storage

  4. The Rules • Make a 2014 plan with spot sales, cash contracts and/or options. Zero basis • Sell at harvest 10/15/14 or on-farm storage only. • Seven windows: Jan (Now!), March, Summer, Harvest, Nov/Dec, Jan/March (‘15), April/July (‘15) • 2014 crop must be sold by Sept. 1, 2015 • Random selection, according to historical probabilities

  5. Put Your Plan Together

  6. Our forecast headed into Jan. 10 USDA reports

  7. Odds Favor Small Decrease In Stocks

  8. Choices

  9. No Change In Ending Stocks On Jan. 10

  10. Surprise Likely

  11. Choices

  12. Put Protection

  13. March Planting Intentions Are Down 2% From Expectations

  14. Small, Medium Or Large Rally?

  15. Choices

  16. May Sale

  17. Weather Rally! June/July rally is 17% over Jan. 1 price, or $5.245.

  18. Choices

  19. John’s Choice

  20. Yields Skew Good

  21. Bumper Crop: Yields Are 12% Above Trend. 167,062 bu Average Harvest Futures $3.35 (July ‘15 $3.70)

  22. Harvest Results

  23. John’s Results

  24. Post-Harvest Odds

  25. Post-Harvest

  26. Small Fall Rebound 2% rally to only $3.775

  27. Year-End

  28. Year-End

  29. Winter Odds

  30. Market Stalls 1% rally to only $3.7375

  31. Spring/Summer Odds

  32. Winter Results

  33. Price Finally Collapse Rally high of $3.33 is 10% below harvest

  34. Last Gasp

  35. Dice Roll

  36. Late Summer Odds

  37. Late Rally Helps Sept. 1 price equals $3.70

  38. Final Results

  39. Average: $4.14

More Related