Lazing Thinky

1. Lazing Thinky The mind problem

2. Demonstration • Write all the letters of the alphabet.

3. Routine Thinking & Verification • Write all the letters of the alphabet. z y x w v u t s r q p o n m l k j i h g f e d c b a

4. Demonstration • You read that your neighbor is a registered sex offender. You look him up in the database. As you wait for the report on the specific crime to download, what do you expect to see? Quick… What was his crime?

5. Short-cuts to Causality • You read that your neighbor is a registered sex offender. As you wait for the report on the specific crime to download, what do you expect to see? Quick… What was the crime? Did you think: molest a child?

6. Demonstration • Rate each statement on a scale of 1 (completely disagree) to 10 (completely agree). • Each person in the US should be treated equally under the law. • Elderly persons should have seats reserved for them on public transportation. • To remedy disadvantages, some minorities should be given preference in hiring. • Gay and lesbian partners should receive the same government protections and benefits that heterosexual partners receive. • Kids under 15 who commit crimes should be punished the same as adults.

7. Categorical Thinking & Philosophical Inconsistency • Rate each statement on a scale of 1 (completely agree) to 10 (completely disagree). • Each person in the US should be treated equally under the law. • Elderly persons should have seats reserved for them on public transportation. • To remedy disadvantages, some minorities should be given preference in hiring. • Gay and lesbian partners should receive the same government protections and benefits that heterosexual partners receive. • Kids under 15 who commit crimes should be punished the same as adults.

8. Demonstration • An acquaintance always volunteers at the local high school. You admire his dedication to young people. One day you find out that your acquaintance uses hard drugs. Now what do you think about your man’s service?

9. Change New Information to Fit Pre-set Categories • An acquaintance always volunteers at the local high school. You admire his dedication to young people. One day you find out that your acquaintance uses hard drugs. Now what do you think about your man’s service?

10. Demonstration Will your grade in this class be in the top 25%, second 25%, third 25%, or bottom 25%? Are your friends generally more or less attractive than the average person?

11. Obsessed with Self, Self-bias, & In-group Bias Will your grade in this class be in the top 25%, second 25%, third 25%, or bottom 25%? Are your friends generally more or less attractive than the average person?

12. Demonstration • Yes or No? • Since family and friends often distract students from studying, it would be best to discourage students from seeing these people. • I have remained in a dating relationship even though I felt stuck or felt like I was no longer in love. • Generally speaking, people in the Bay Area are more likeable than other Americans.

13. Need to Belong & In-group/Out-group • Yes or No? • Since family and friends often distract students from studying, it would be best to discourage students from seeing these people. • I have remained in a dating relationship even though I felt stuck or felt like I was no longer in love. • Generally speaking, Californians are more likeable than other Americans.

14. Demonstration • Describe the shirt that I wore yesterday. What color is the carpet in the hallway of the floor in this building? What was the full title of this lecture?

15. Bad Memories • Describe the shirt that I wore yesterday. What color is the carpet in the hallway of the floor in this building? Lecture title? Innocent Man Exonerated After 30 Years In Prison BJ Austin, KERA News (2011-01-04) DALLAS, TX(KERA) - After spending 30 years in prison for a crime he did not commit, Cornelius Dupree was exonerated in a Dallas courtroom Tuesday morning . . . Dupree's Innocence Project lawyer Nina Morrison says mistaken eyewitness identification put an innocent 19 year old man in prison for 30 years.

16. Demonstration • On the next slide, there will be four images. Describe what you see.

17. Demonstration

18. Demonstration • On the next slide, there will be four images. Describe what you see.

19. Demonstration

20. Did you see the red key shirt and a green shirt with white letters?

21. Demonstration • Which statement in each set makes you react more? • The average American is paying more in taxes than wealthier people. We should increase their taxes. vs. • Tax the Rich! • I have issues with some TV hosts. vs. • I hate TV hosts who tell others what to think. a. The killer should suffer like the victim vs. b. The killer should be taught empathy for persons he hurt

22. Emotions Control Thinking • Which statement in each set makes you react more? • The average American is paying more in taxes than wealthier people. We should increase their taxes. vs. • Tax the Rich! • I have issues with some TV hosts. vs. • I hate TV hosts who tell others what to think. a. The killer should suffer like the victim vs. b. The killer should be taught empathy for persons he hurt

23. Lazy Thinking People, even scientists, are “Lazy Thinkers.” • One goal of education is to undo obstacles to rational thinking. • Human thinking is “boxed in” by these cognitive restrictions: • Routine thinking, verification • Short-cuts to causality • Categorical Thinking, philosophical inconsistency • Change new information to fit pre-set categories • Obsessed with self/self bias/in-group bias • People must belong to others, in-group/out-group • Bad Memories • Salient Stimuli • Emotions control thinking

24. Lazy Thinking • Can you read this?Olny srmat poelpe can.I cdnuolt blveiee taht I cluod aulaclty uesdnatnrd waht I was rdanieg. The phaonmneal pweor of the hmuan mnid, aoccdrnig to a rscheearch at Cmabrigde Uinervtisy, it deosn't mttaer in waht oredr the ltteers in a wrod are, the olny iprmoatnt tihng is taht the frist and lsat ltteer be in the rghit pclae. The rset can be a taotl mses and you can sitll raed it wouthit a porbelm. Tihs is bcuseae the huamn mnid deos not raed ervey lteter by istlef, but the wrod as a wlohe. Amzanig huh? yaeh and I awlyas tghuhot slpeling was ipmorantt!

25. Problems with ThinkingMore Terms • Overgeneralization: concluding that what is true for some cases is true for all cases • Selective Observation: looking only at things that are consistent with our preferences or beliefs or that catch our attention • Illogical Reasoning: jumping to conclusions or arguing on the basis of invalid assumptions • Resistance to Change: reluctance to change ideas in light of new information

26. “Weird Things”: Problems with Thinking • Theory influences observation • The observer changes the observed • Equipment constructs results • Anecdotes do not make a science • Scientific language does not make a science • Bold statements do not make claims true • Heresy does not equal correctness • Burden of Proof • Rumors do not equal reality • Unexplained is not inexplicable

27. “Weird Things”: Problems with Thinking • Failures are rationalized • After-the-fact reasoning • Coincidence—Odds of co-occurring events are often high, we pay attention only to salient events • Representativeness—what are the underlying factors that might explain events? • Emotive words and false analogies • Ad Ignorantiam • Ad Hominem and Tu Quoque • Hasty Generalization • Overreliance on Authorities • Either-Or

28. “Weird Things”: Problems with Thinking • Circular Reasoning • Slippery Slope • Effort Inadequacies and the Need for Certainty, Control, and Simplicity—we need security and are lazy thinkers • Problem-Solving Inadequacies—we are not rational and seem to “need” causes • Ideological Immunity

29. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Test Ideas Against Empirical Reality You are a social scientist, meaning that you attempt to explain what actually occurs in the social world—not what ought to occur or what “The Divine” intended to occur. Test hypotheses with data. • Plan and Carry Out Investigations Systematically (marked by thoroughness and regularity) Use good methods and statistics. Avoid salient cases and anecdotal information. • Do not Become Personally Invested in Your Results Your beliefs and emotions may pick topics of interest, but science demands dispassionate analysis.

30. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’

31. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Document all Procedures and Disclose them Publicly a. You will be more honest when you disclose to others b. The community of scholars may evaluate and assess your claims • Clarify Your Assumptions for Your Audience The world is big and complex, a study is small and simple, so we must make assumptions (that are informed by scientific knowledge) to start and/or make sense of a project. E.g., Persons with low income in my study are poor. Assumption: Low income equals low wealth Rather than: Wealthier persons can afford to not earn much E.g., After finding that spanking increases juvenile delinquency… Assumption: Kids interpret violence as appropriate Rather than: Rationally see violence as effective

32. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Specify the Meanings of Your Terms a. Broad concepts must be operationalized in research: “Abused Kids” becomes “Persons under 15 who were hit or slapped with enough force to leave a mark after an hour.” b. Explicit definitions help give the scope and generalizability of the research (This is one way that research articles become dry and boring, unlike what humans prefer)

33. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Maintain a Skeptical Stance Toward Current Knowledge a. Research is often limited by: errors, funding, scope, bias

34. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’

35. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’

38. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Maintain a Skeptical Stance Toward Current Knowledge a. Research is often limited by: errors, funding, scope, bias b. Phenomena under study may have changed For example: George Wallace was a Democrat “I say segregation now, segregation tomorrow, segregation forever. Richard Nixon was a Republican “Scrubbing floors and emptying bedpans has as much dignity as the Presidency.” c. There are multiple possible causes for phenomena For example: One study may find that lower IQ leads to poverty, what else might?

39. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Maintain a Skeptical Stance Toward Current Knowledge d. No single project is enough All research is limited, the world is too big to be captured in one project This takes some burden off the researcher—you cannot do it all Avoid “slamming” reports that do not study everything e. Recognize your own Limitations

40. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Respect the Community of Scholars No individual alone can do enough to generate and validate useful knowledge Scientific knowledge resides in a community and its repositories of research or stores of knowledge (libraries). Burden of Proof?

41. Why does the burden of proof concept matter? Deadly Diseases Creep Back As Parents Hesitate To Immunize By KATHY ANEY | December 29, 2011 Less than a century ago, the world was a playground for deadly germs and viruses.  Epidemics of polio, influenza, smallpox and whooping cough wreaked havoc around the globe. Humans fought back with weapons honed in the laboratory — vaccines. These vaccines quashed the diseases with such shock and awe that most people have never seen them first-hand.  The fear of these diseases has ebbed so low that many parents are opting out of vaccinating their children.  Just across the border in Washington, 6.2 percent elected not to vaccinate this year — one of the highest rates of non-medical exemption rates in the country after Alaska (9 percent), Colorado (7 percent) and Minnesota (6.5). Oregon’s exemption rate rose to 5.6 percent, up from 5.2. (The percentages refer to kindergarten students.) Public health officials are watching with trepidation as the exemption numbers rise. Umatilla County Public Health Administrator Genni Lehnert-Beers is one of those officials who is concerned. Most of the diseases, she said, are only being kept at bay, but are in danger of roaring back.

42. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’

43. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ • Your Work Should be Embedded in Previous Research and Theories a. Your research must begin where the community of scholars left off. Everything must be grounded in what has gone before--So use others’ findings and theory! b. You should work to see if others’ findings hold up. Social Sciences have replication built into almost every project—red flag unexpected findings. c. Help others avoid “lazy thinking”--educate them on how your research may support or contradict the prevailing scholarly views of the social world.

44. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ 10. Discover (not assume) Causal Relationships • We CANNOT know whether a concept causes another to change unless the relationship between the two has been systematically OBSERVED . • Systematic observation requires consistently measuring the concepts that may be related. • Recorded measurements of concepts are called VARIABLES. • Variables are classified as “Independent” (the causIng) and “Dependent” (the causeD). Y X

45. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ 10. Discover (not assume) Causal Relationships Independent Variable: A measured concept that as it changes may cause another to change (CausIng). Dependent Variable (Topic Variable): A measured concept that may change in response to changes in another (CauseD). X Y Independent Dependent Variable Variable (A relationship that researchers think exists) Y X

46. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ 10. Discover (not assume) Causal Relationships An independent variable has caused a dependent variable to change when these conditions are met: Necessary: a) Association—changes in variables occur in tandem b) Time Order—change in the independent variable occurs prior to that of the dependent variable; value of independent variable is set prior to value of dependent variable c) Nonspuriousness—associated changes in the variables are NOT coincidental or caused by changes in a third variable *** Helpful: d) Mechanism—a plausible reason that the independent variable should affect the dependent variable e) Context—specification of conditions that permit or favor the occurrence of the causal relationship

47. Ten Ways to Overcome ‘Lazy Thinking’ c) Nonspuriousness—associated changes in the variables are NOT coincidental or caused by changes in a third variable A spurious relationship is one where • Coincidence created the appearance of a relationship such as when bad things happen after seeing 111 added to 555 • a third (extraneous) variable causes two others to change in tandem, making it look like they are causally related. + Education Crime Z - Y Education Crime + + X Size of City

48. Collecting for a Causality • When we collect data, we have varying purposes. Sometimes we just want to describe a population. • Other times we want to determine whether variables are causally related. • When measuring phenomena, the timing and whom we contact should match our objectives: Describe or Explain. • How does timing and whom we contact (design) affect ability to make causal statements?

49. Collecting for a Causality X Y Independent Dependent Variable Variable Y X z Z One thing causes another when there is: a) Association—when X and Y change in tandem b) Time Order—for X to cause Y, value of X must occur prior to value of Y c) Nonspuriousness—relationship between X and Y is not coincidental or caused by changes in a third variable (z)

50. Collecting for a Causality • Cross-Sectional Design • Collecting data at one point in time, using same instruments for everyone—observing or asking questions only during a single limited time-frame. • Great for descriptive work. • Effect on Causality: 1. Can establish association, 2. Time-order is hard to establish • Answers on variables such as sex and race can be assumed to have pre-dated answers on other variables • Answers to many variables, however, do not clearly precede answers to others • We often rely on respondents’ memories to establish time order and this can be erroneous (why?)