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Activities & Plans 2007

Activities & Plans 2007. Dijana Klaric Met service of Croatia RC LACE Project Leader. RC LACE report. Environment & R&D highlights Operations and Common actions Project Evaluation Future. LACE vs ALADIN. ALADIN Project.

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Activities & Plans 2007

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  1. Activities & Plans 2007 Dijana Klaric Met service of Croatia RC LACE Project Leader 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  2. RC LACE report • Environment & • R&D highlights • Operations and Common actions • Project Evaluation • Future LACE vs ALADIN 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  3. ALADIN Project F,Ro,Bg,Cz,Hu,Sk,PL,A,Mc,Si,Cr,B,Pt,Tu,Al (Mo,Tk,........) --I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I-----I----I---I----I 1990 1996------------------------2002 2007

  4. LACE vs ALADIN ALADIN Project 1990 -> • R&D project • Members with different NWP ambitions MF-LACE backbone Structure & Budget LACE Project 1990 -> • Operations and R&D project • Members sharing the ambitions • Romania membership (November 2006) • Central and SE Europe LACE is a tool for ALADIN activity in C&SE E 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  5. Regional Cooperationenvironment Members: Au-Cr-Cz-Hu-Ro-Si-Sk • Co-operation: • R&D on meso-scale NWP • Operations • Common actions • RC LACE MoU • RC LACE Budget • 7 NWP teams • LACE MG Project Leader, 4 Working Group Leaders, ALADIN SC, Data Manager • MF partner • ALADIN partners • HIRLAM • SRNWP 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  6. R&D overview LACE Scientific Plans 2006; 2007 • main input for ALADIN Scientific plans • IFS environment (spectral space): Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km) • R&D working groups: Dynamics , Physics , Data Assimilation, Predictability • 40 scientists: 7 NWP teams + visitors • 25-30pxm funds Leading NWP results: • NH Dynamics -->>> 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  7. Dynamics and Coupling • NH ALADIN Dynamics - core for NH ALADIN and AROME models - tests at ECMWF ( to become the next IFS dynamics) - Vertical finite elements (Hy, NH ) • Other dynamical issues SLHD filter Dynamics –Physics interface TL/AD for ALADIN SL – (4D Var tool) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  8. Ref FD, 35lev , dt=5s Ref VFE, 35lev, dt=5s X-term, Z-term-FD Ref VFE, 100lev, dt=5s (X-term, Z-term-FD) Ref FD, 100lev, dt=5s VFE for NH ALADIN • more accurate then Finite Differences • coded for Hy (Hortal ) and NH (Vivoda) • Stability tests (stil noisy at BC) Results:

  9. SLHD – Semi Lagrangian Horizontal Diffusion - non-linear scheme -triggered by flow field deformation -special care to control orography triggered noise Results: on Prognostic Physics variables TKE over flat orog. AROME 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  10. Physics System AAA Arpege(Global) -Aladin(Alaro10km) -Arome (2.5km) Physic packages : ALADIN/ARPEGE - global and LAM- sharing phy. meso-NH physics - base for AROME meso-γ model ALARO physics - multi-scale physics for 10-5km: New governing equ. and progn. water species 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  11. Physics (10km->5km) ALARO transition • ALARO-0, step 1 (system) • Equations and interface (loss of mass due to precipitation is considered ); • Prognostic cloud water (microphysics 5 water species); • Radiation –NER formulation; • Turbulence (pseudo- prognostic TKE scheme); • Cloudiness issue (improved optical properties, new saturation cloud model) • ALARO-0, step 2 (multi-scale, “grey-zone”) • Sub-grib scale convection - 3MT 3MT - Microphysics and Transport for SGS convection +Multiscale +Modular =3MT 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  12. ALARO Diagnostics • Model consistency and performance (ALARO: more memory, less CPU – better optinimized) • DDH tool for diagnostic (IFS basic, AAA developed) • Model comparison ALARO vs ALADIN Phy • ALARO –v0: operative at CZ, Be,..... (new ALADIN) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  13. 2MT – What has been done – Results (J-M Piriou, Radostovice, ALARO Training and WS) 2MT: Multiscale Microphysics and Transport. 7 km 4 km 2 km Cas du 10/09/2005. Cumul de précipitation en 1h (mm). Source Gerard (QJRMS 2007). • MT + additional prognostic variables + cascading microphysics  relevant for « grey zone »  2MT. 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  14. ALARO plans 2007-> • Governing equations: extension to compressible case (NH) • Pseudo-prognostic TKE-scheme: new mixing length formulation; an 'analytical' CBR interpretation within p-TKE • Gravity wave drag parametrization: re-tune for no- envelope orography • 3MT: validation and tuning, sensitivity to mid-troposphere humidity , test of convection diurnal cycle (Team; JF Geleyn, JM Piriou, B Catry, L Gerard, R Brozkova, N Pristov,M Tudor, F Vana, J Masek, D Banciu......) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  15. Data Assimilation Research focus • Ensemble B matrics • 3D-FGAT –ALADIN (transition to 4D-Var) • Observations AMV, SEVIRI • Blending initialization (with surface OI –CANARI) (team:Boloni,Kertesz, Trojakova,Majek, Randriamampianina) ALADIN/ 3D VAR – HMS • ∆x=12 km; 37 vertical L • 6 hour cycle • 3D-VAR for the upper air fields • substitution of the surface fields by the ARPEGE ones • B matrix: NMC method • LBC: long cut-off ARPEGE analysis, 3 h coupling frequency 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  16. 3D FGAT - hourly SYNOPs, AIREP, SATOB increments tests; observation window; Results:3D FGAT vs 3DVar (all measurements) Red- 3D FGAT better (Z,RH, U,V) RMS BIAS 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  17. SEVIRI data analysis by ALADIN -3DVar Tests: • with 2 ways for B Matrix computation: NMC vs Ensemble • diff 3D Var resolutions (12km/37L vs 8km/45L) • Tuning of obs-error statistics Results on SEVIRI impact : • Impact be similar to ATOVS data (AMSU-A or AMSU-B) assimilated in high resolution; • Impact depending on the parameters (Rh, Z) and model levels; • Negative impact near the surface needs further tests with more surface measurements (2m T, 2m RH) -coupled with SEVIRI 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  18. WG on Predictability Research focus • Uncertenties at initial conditions ALADIN Singular Vector (SV) Breeding, ET, ETKF, blending Blending ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation • Multi-physics parameterizations ( 11 mem, diff tuning, diff schem.) • Downscaling of ECMWF EPS • Clustering approaches for downscaling ECMWF EPS ( ECMWF Tech. Memo.507, Jan 2007) (team: Wang, Kann, Horanyi, Bellus, Ivatek-Sahdan, Hagel,etc) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  19. Uncertenties at initial conditions T-perturbations for: SV, breeding, blended Blending: ARPEGE/ECMWF global perturbation and ALADIN perturbation Blended perturbations have the highest spread (red curve) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  20. Multi-physics option11 members, Bougeault-type, Kain-Fritsch deep convection scheme, moisture convergence and CAPE closure in the convection scheme, Kessler-type scheme for LP,Lopez microphysics scheme 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  21. WG on Predictability Common tools and products • Verification package • LAEF products Down. of ECMWF EPS (16+cont, 18 km) • EPS grams • Probability charts • Stamps Planned: • Multi-physics • Blending 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  22. 2007ALADIN-LACE-HIRLAM actions • ALARO training at Radostovice, March 2007 14 participants all LACE Members (+ MF, Be, PT, Mc + Denmark) • GLAMEPS Project at ECMWF ( HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE EPS project) • ALADIN-HIRLAM coordination on SURFACE and DA issues • ALADIN-HIRLAM general WSat Oslo April 2007 • LACE training on CANARIat Budapest, Nov 2007 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  23. GLAMEPS “grand” EPS Meso-scale real-time EPS >100 members • HIRLAM-ALADIN-LACE • alterative of using several sub-European and less populated ensemble systems which single NMSs could run on their own • Common: operations, product distribution and verification • Desirable set-ups : „large” domain: 22km, 37 levels, 320 x 300 points, +60h int. Two phases • Laboratory phase at ECMWF (2007-2008) • Distributed production stage (2008-2009) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  24. GLAMEPS_v0- test phase ALADIN – 20 members • Downscaling of ECMWF EPS 22km/44km ALADIN • lat/lon post-proc. (INM sys) • Next step: ALADIN native singular vectors (tests) (OT =+12h, +24h) HIRLAM -66 members • ECMWF targeted singular vectors (TSV) • OT - 24h -3 TSV domains - 2 HIRLAM physics - (10 memx2 mod x3dom)

  25. FDP MAP D-Phase MAP D-phase Demonstration Project (June-Nov 2007) • Probabilistic hydrological and meteorological simulations for heavy rains and flood events • Contribution of LACE via Austrian team • ALADIN/Austria for deterministic products (∆x= 9.6km, 45 levels, dyn. adaptation) • ALADIN LAEF probability products (24h precipitation) (∆x= 18km, 37 levels, 16 mem +contr. from ECMWF EPS) • Disseminated to MAP D-Phase center 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  26. RC LACEcommon actions Centralized Verification: (Ljubljana) • Client/server system • All ALADIN mod. results • Tool for basic scores (synoptic scale) • Monthly reporting procedure • Portable to members ODB activities: (Data Manager; Budapest) • ODB training • ODB help-desk • Interactive Obs. Monitoring for Var DA • Monthly reporting procedure • QC for each station • Comparison of Var DA results Exchange of HR observations monitoring of obs network at MS 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  27. www.rclace.eu(public and private zone) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  28. RC LACE Operations:+72h integration, 00 (06),12, (18) UTC runs

  29. RC LACEEvaluation Project Evaluation after 10 years of common activities (1996-2006) • Goals: • To provide objective view of Project • To range a LACE to NWP objectives • To give independent advices about future development • Input for new LACE structure 2008-> 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  30. General recommendations (Quality of Project) • Strategy and planning (short-term, long-term; users demands) • Management structure (competence, authority) • Internal/external communications (WWW, visibility, NWP consortia) • Role of NWP systems at LACE centers (AAA models as the primary subjects) 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  31. Recommendations for Task Sharing Reasons: • To overcome the duplication of the operational efforts. • To suppress draining of resources on maintaining and downstream applications. • To provide small NWP centers with a complete NWP system. Methods: • Define the common tasks • Agreement onLead Centresfor specific areas • Lead Centers: • for research • for operations Results: • Efficient use of the available manpower. • Specialisation of the NWP teams. 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

  32. LACE Future 2008 -> • Political decision for the closer operative cooperation (toward the Projects with operative deliverables) • Leading centers => Responsible center • Bottom-up => Top-down planning • Action Plan for implementation of (Working Group) • LACE 10-years strategy • LACE MoU III 9th COSMO meeting, Athens

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