The sea level rise story
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The Sea Level Rise Story. Bruno Tremblay McGill University. [email protected] Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado. Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures. [ Hansen et al ., 2005]. Observed Sea Level Rise. Observed Sea Level Rise Last 20 Kyr BP.

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The Sea Level Rise Story

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The sea level rise story

The Sea Level Rise Story

Bruno Tremblay

McGill University

[email protected]

Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado


Annual global mean surface temperatures

Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures

[Hansen et al., 2005]


Observed sea level rise

Observed Sea Level Rise


Observed sea level rise last 20 kyr bp

Observed Sea Level RiseLast 20 Kyr BP


Measuring sea level height

Measuring sea level height

Radar altimetry

Tidal gauge


Cause of sea level rise

Cause of Sea Level Rise

Eustatic:

Water mass added.

Steric:

Salinity or temperature change

Isostatic:

Change in the level of land (e.g. thermal effect, plate tectonic, compaction effect)

Withdrawal of ground water  land subsidence.

Cooling of volcanic island  land subsidence.


Short term changes in sea level

Short Term Changes in Sea Level

Diurnal-semidiurnal tides

Atmospheric pressure – Winds - Evaporation- precipitations 

Water density and currents

El Niño/southern oscillation

Water mass exchange between Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific, Indian Oceans

River runoff/floods

Seiches

Tsunamis

Abrupt change in land level


Potential sea level rise

Potential Sea Level Rise

Glaciers: 0.5 m

Greenland: 6m

Antarctica

West: 6m

East: 51m


Potential sea level change contributions

Potential Sea Level Change Contributions

Thermal Expansion: ~1 meter

Mountain Glaciers: 0.5 meters

Greenland Ice Melt: 7 meters

Antarctic Ice Melt: 60 meters

Land Water Storage: < 0.5 meters


Recent contribution to observed sea level rise

Recent contribution to observed sea level rise


The sea level rise story

Rhone Glacier

2008

1900


Alaska mass change from grace

Alaska Mass Change from Grace


The sea level rise story

Ice Sheet Mass Balance

8 mm/yr of precip and calving at equilibrium


Greenland ice mass loss from grace

Greenland Ice Mass Loss from GRACE

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

-210 Gt/year = 0.6 mm/year GMSL

Credit: Roger Braithwaite


Antarctic ice mass flux from insar

Antarctic Ice Mass Flux from InSAR

SLR 0.4 to 0.6 mm/yr

-4 km3/yr

-2 km3/yr

-2 km3/yr

+5 km3/yr

-37±20 km3/yr

-2 km3/yr

-3 km3/yr

-49±20 km3/yr

+48 km3/yr

-38 km3/yr

-4 km3/yr

-114 km3/yr

-22 km3/yr

-56 km3/yr

+33 km3/yr

-33 km3/yr

+21 km3/yr

+5 km3/yr

[Rignot, 2005]

GRACE


The sea level rise story

Ice Sheet - Ice Shelf


The sea level rise story

Wilkins Ice Shelf

Larsen B Ice Shelf


The sea level rise story

Antarctica

Without Ice


Recent contribution to observed sea level rise1

Recent contribution to observed sea level rise


Sea level observations versus predictions

Sea Level Observations versus Predictions

Satellite Observations

Tide Gauge Observations

Climate Model Predictions

(IPCC 3rd Assessment, 2001)

[Rahmstorf et al., 2007]


What to expect in the future

What to Expect in the Future

The IPCC 4th Assessment: 0.28 - 0.59 m by 2100

Recent study suggests higher rates (0.5 - 1.4 m by 2100).

5.8°

1.4°

[Rahmstorf, 2007]


Greenland ice mass loss estimates

Greenland Ice Mass Loss Estimates

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

Luthcke et al. [2006]

Krabill et al. [2004]

Zwally et al. [2005]

Rignot et al. [2006]

Velicogna and Wahr [2005]

Ramillien et al. [2006]

Chen et al. [2006]

Velicogna and Wahr [2006]

[Cazenave, 2006]


Antarctic ice mass loss estimates

Antarctic Ice Mass Loss Estimates

Rignot and Thomas [2002]

Zwally et al. [2005]

Davis et al. [2005]

Velicogna and Wahr [2006]

Chen et al. [2006]

Ramillien et al. [2006]

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

[Cazenave, 2006]


Effects of sea level rise

Effects of Sea Level Rise

2 meters

1 meter

8 meters

4 meters

GFDL


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