The sea level rise story
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The Sea Level Rise Story. Bruno Tremblay McGill University. [email protected] Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado. Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures. [ Hansen et al ., 2005]. Observed Sea Level Rise. Observed Sea Level Rise Last 20 Kyr BP.

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The Sea Level Rise Story

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The Sea Level Rise Story

Bruno Tremblay

McGill University

[email protected]

Slide from Steven Nerem – University of Colorado


Annual Global Mean Surface Temperatures

[Hansen et al., 2005]


Observed Sea Level Rise


Observed Sea Level RiseLast 20 Kyr BP


Measuring sea level height

Radar altimetry

Tidal gauge


Cause of Sea Level Rise

Eustatic:

Water mass added.

Steric:

Salinity or temperature change

Isostatic:

Change in the level of land (e.g. thermal effect, plate tectonic, compaction effect)

Withdrawal of ground water  land subsidence.

Cooling of volcanic island  land subsidence.


Short Term Changes in Sea Level

Diurnal-semidiurnal tides

Atmospheric pressure – Winds - Evaporation- precipitations 

Water density and currents

El Niño/southern oscillation

Water mass exchange between Arctic, Atlantic, Pacific, Indian Oceans

River runoff/floods

Seiches

Tsunamis

Abrupt change in land level


Potential Sea Level Rise

Glaciers: 0.5 m

Greenland: 6m

Antarctica

West: 6m

East: 51m


Potential Sea Level Change Contributions

Thermal Expansion: ~1 meter

Mountain Glaciers: 0.5 meters

Greenland Ice Melt: 7 meters

Antarctic Ice Melt: 60 meters

Land Water Storage: < 0.5 meters


Recent contribution to observed sea level rise


Rhone Glacier

2008

1900


Alaska Mass Change from Grace


Ice Sheet Mass Balance

8 mm/yr of precip and calving at equilibrium


Greenland Ice Mass Loss from GRACE

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

-210 Gt/year = 0.6 mm/year GMSL

Credit: Roger Braithwaite


Antarctic Ice Mass Flux from InSAR

SLR 0.4 to 0.6 mm/yr

-4 km3/yr

-2 km3/yr

-2 km3/yr

+5 km3/yr

-37±20 km3/yr

-2 km3/yr

-3 km3/yr

-49±20 km3/yr

+48 km3/yr

-38 km3/yr

-4 km3/yr

-114 km3/yr

-22 km3/yr

-56 km3/yr

+33 km3/yr

-33 km3/yr

+21 km3/yr

+5 km3/yr

[Rignot, 2005]

GRACE


Ice Sheet - Ice Shelf


Wilkins Ice Shelf

Larsen B Ice Shelf


Antarctica

Without Ice


Recent contribution to observed sea level rise


Sea Level Observations versus Predictions

Satellite Observations

Tide Gauge Observations

Climate Model Predictions

(IPCC 3rd Assessment, 2001)

[Rahmstorf et al., 2007]


What to Expect in the Future

The IPCC 4th Assessment: 0.28 - 0.59 m by 2100

Recent study suggests higher rates (0.5 - 1.4 m by 2100).

5.8°

1.4°

[Rahmstorf, 2007]


Greenland Ice Mass Loss Estimates

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

Luthcke et al. [2006]

Krabill et al. [2004]

Zwally et al. [2005]

Rignot et al. [2006]

Velicogna and Wahr [2005]

Ramillien et al. [2006]

Chen et al. [2006]

Velicogna and Wahr [2006]

[Cazenave, 2006]


Antarctic Ice Mass Loss Estimates

Rignot and Thomas [2002]

Zwally et al. [2005]

Davis et al. [2005]

Velicogna and Wahr [2006]

Chen et al. [2006]

Ramillien et al. [2006]

362 Gt = 1 mm GMSL

[Cazenave, 2006]


Effects of Sea Level Rise

2 meters

1 meter

8 meters

4 meters

GFDL


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