1 / 7

Scenarios and Simulations

Scenarios and Simulations. Overview. Calibration Model vs Simulation Model Terms Using the Web Interface, Excel and GAMS to do simulations work Interpreting results Improving the model . Terms.

frieda
Download Presentation

Scenarios and Simulations

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Scenarios and Simulations

  2. Overview • Calibration Model vs Simulation Model • Terms • Using the Web Interface, Excel and GAMS to do simulations work • Interpreting results • Improving the model

  3. Terms • Base year: the year for which you have data; when the model solves in this year, it should EXACTLY replicate this data (2005) • Calibration solution: the solution for the projection period (currently IMPACT is 45 years); starts with the base year data and uses the projection input data that has been agreed upon by modeling team • Simulation: a solution for the projection period that uses the Baseline solution as a STARTING POINT, but allows for changes in the projection input data • Drivers: the exogenous projection input data that can be changed for simulation experiments • Income, Population, CC effects on yields over time, CC effects on area over time • Degree: the characteristic of the driver that makes it unique • Population and GDP: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) • Climate change: Hadgem, IPSL, etc.

  4. Simulation Characteristics • Each simulation will have characteristics that you can specify • For each driver, only degree can be specified

  5. Interpreting Results • Given the change in projection assumptions do your results make “economic” sense compared to the baseline solution? • Check world prices, trade, and supply • Are the world’s biggest suppliers/consumers still the biggest suppliers/consumers? • If not, is there a plausible “economic” reason for it? • What does trade look like for US, China, India, Brazil, etc.? • What do other long term projecting models say with a similar question? • Can the higher prices under a simulation with more production be explained by income growth? • Have your changes to intrinsic productivity growth rates and area growth rates created an unrealistic future? • Are the input projections from the simulation going to become the new baseline solution projections? • Do price projections follow historical patterns? • Do your projections tell a story? • Filter and graph your results

  6. Comparisons of simulation results • When comparing simulation results, consider what is different between each simulation? • Are you comparing population changes? • Are you comparing climate effects? • If you are comparing population only, hold all the other drivers constant • Keep track of the drivers and degrees

  7. Questions?

More Related