Ruleless Burden Problem Used in Experiment 4 (Loss Detection)

1. Ruleless Burden Problem Used in Experiment 4 (Loss Detection) In South America there is a farmer called Juan. Juan grows potatoes for a living and the harvest was really good in the last year, too good in fact. He harvested so many potatoes that he wasn’t able to properly store all of them. Those potatoes that weren’t stored properly have begun to rot, making them unsuitable for human consumption and are starting to stink up his neighborhood. The smell is so bad that his neighbors have complained to the village council. The council, in turn, ordered Juan to remove the offending potatoes within a week. Juan thought of burning the potatoes to get rid of them, but they’re so soggy that they won’t burn. Because he had no lorry, or even a horse and cart, of his own to move the potatoes, Juan made an inquiry with a waste disposal service about removing the potatoes. A representative of the company came to have a look at the potatoes and estimated that it would take several lorry loads to remove all the potatoes at a cost of £500. As a poor farmer, £500 was more than Juan could afford to pay, so he thought he would try to lessen the bill by personally moving as many of rotting potatoes as he could by hand using his wheelbarrow. Juan loaded up a wheelbarrow with the rotting potatoes and began the long journey to the uninhabited countryside where he could safely dump his potatoes. On the way he passed through a neighboring village where the locals grow quinoa (a local grain) and raise pigs. As he passed through a curious villager asked Juan what he intended to do with the potatoes. When he told him that he was going to dump them, the villager said, “Don’t dump them. Give them to me. My pigs love to eat rotten potatoes.” Eventually a whole crowd gathered asking Juan for his rotten potatoes to feed their pigs. Recognizing a good opportunity, Juan said, “I could use a little pork, myself.” But the villagers all scoffed, “You have to be crazy, our expensive pork for some worthless potatoes? We can spare some quinoa when we harvest it.” Juan considered the offer. The quinoa isn’t worth much he thought (just a few pence a kilogram), but it’s better than nothing, so he accepted their offer. Over the next few days Juan traded away so many potatoes that he only had to pay the waste disposal company £100 to remove the remaining potatoes. The quinoa wasn’t harvested until months later, but Juan kept careful notes on the villagers who expressed an interest in his potatoes that day. The cards below represent four of the villagers. On one side of each card it says whether or not Juan gave the villager rotten potatoes and on the other side of the card it says whether or not the villager gave Juan quinoa after the harvest. Juan wants to makes sure that none of these villagers has caused him to suffer a loss. Indicate only those card(s) that Juan would definitely need to turn over to find out whether any of these four villagers have caused Juan to suffer a loss. Juan gave this villager potatoes This villager gave Juan quinoa This villager gave Juan nothing Juan gave this villager nothing