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Power in the Asia Pacific . Is this now the centre of the world?. International Relations Fundamental Changes. The complexity of international relations – 3 dimensions End of the Cold War – competition with USSR redundant but Vietnam / DPRK / China.

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Power in the asia pacific

Power in the Asia Pacific

Is this now the centre of the world?


International relations fundamental changes
International Relations Fundamental Changes

  • The complexity of international relations – 3 dimensions

  • End of the Cold War – competition with USSR redundant but Vietnam / DPRK / China.

  • Critical points of tension eg DPRK – nuclear non proliferation, Taiwan.

  • Huge established and developing economies

  • Critical to Australia.

  • APEC / ASEAN – vibrant multilateral forums

  • China the next super power


Ingredients
Ingredients

  • Military – can you use the force? Iraq / Desert Storm? Somalia? Afghanistan? The DPRK?

  • Economic – US deficit, China surplus, Australia commodities, interrelationships and shared interests eg GFC

  • Geography – Is is power or is it context? Aust?

  • Population – Potential interest / investment

  • Political system - relationships

  • Relationships – allies US / Aust – US Taiwan

  • History - context


The us in asia
The US in Asia

  • History – imperialism / engagement

  • Super power

  • War on terror assumes cooperation

  • Taiwan Relations Act

  • Relationship with Japan / ROK / Australia

  • DPRK / Taiwan potential flashpoints

  • What is the US’s National interest in the Asia Pacific?


Asean
ASEAN

  • Acts collectively, inclusively and avoids criticism.

  • Pivotal forum eg ARF

  • Specific aims to promote trade and regional stability,

  • Reduce potential military conflict eg nuclear proliferation

  • Follows ideas of WTO


APEC

  • 33% of worlds population

  • 60 % of GDP

  • Debate and consensus

  • Focus on economic issues

  • Multilateral forums

  • An opportunity for discussion. G 8 / G 20 now more potent.


National interest
National Interest

  • Defines foreign policy

  • Common general themes

  • Some specifics eg China and territorial integrity. US and terrorism.

  • Competing interests. China and political freedoms vs rejection of independence Xianjing.

  • Different perspectives

  • Goals – China GDP doubles by 2020


Power complex and interrelated unilateral bilateral multilateral globalisation
Power – Complex and InterrelatedUnilateral / bilateral / multilateralGlobalisation

  • A three dimensional view allows a more effective and accurate assessment of power and relationships.

  • A bit like a recipe.


China the next superpower
China – The Next Superpower

  • Military – 4.3% of GDP / nuclear power

  • Population – 1.4 billion

  • Communist with strong capitalist links. Almost acts as a multinational corporation.

  • Per capita GDP - $5300 and increasing

  • Size – 9.6 million square kilometres

  • Strong current account surplus – 220 billion 2010

  • 19.4% of exports to the US

  • Economic growth at 10%

  • Security council member


China national interests
China – National Interests

  • Economic development

  • Territorial integrity

  • Improved international standing

  • Harmonious socialist society

  • Plus a range of other interests that include regional stability, security for the DPRK, influence in the world order.


Economic development
Economic Development

  • Growth GDP, current account, overseas investment – significant

  • Policy – joined WTO, Most Favoured Nation clause –US, private ownership, tarriffs from 56 to 11 %

  • GDP per capita to double by 2020.

  • Problems – environment, disparity in wealth, corruption, one child policy population increase and under employment


Territorial integrity
Territorial Integrity

  • Issues – Taiwan / Tibet / Xianjing – Uighur

  • Separatism

  • China – a state not a nation state

  • One China policy – Taiwan

  • Harmonious socialist state

  • Hong Kong – an example – separate administrative unit. One country two systems


International standing
International Standing

  • Significant given growing influence and economic interaction

  • Security council

  • Limited use of veto eg Iran / Iraq

  • Cancelled 10 billion debt - Africa

  • Olympic games and World Fair

  • Multilateral forums

    • APEC / ARF / NPT / CBTB / Peace keeping / WTO


Competing interests
Competing Interests

  • Sudan – oil

  • Tibet / Xianjing / Taiwan

  • Milk / paint / environment / labour


Harmonious society
Harmonious Society

  • Domestic issues and International good standing

  • Problems

    • Increased social tensions – growth / expectations / separatism

    • Social security - .8 vs .41

    • Land seizure

    • Corruption

    • Environment


Foreign policy
Foreign Policy

  • 5 Principles of Peaceful Coexistence

    • Respect sovereignty / territory

    • Mutual non aggression

    • Mutual benefit

    • Peaceful coexistence

    • Non interference

  • New Security Concept – 1998

    • Dialogue/agreements/Russia/regional diplomacy


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