The Nature and Impact of Early Achievement Skills, Attention and Behavior Problems

1. The Nature and Impact of Early Achievement Skills, Attention and Behavior Problems Greg J. Duncan, University of California, Irvine Katherine Magnuson, University of Wisconsin - Madison

2. Thanks to support from the Russell Sage Foundation, Foundation for Child Development and Spencer Foundation • And to CAPCA -- the Center for the Analysis of Pathways from Childhood to Adulthood – at the University of Michigan

3. Our questions: • What are the roles of academic, attention and socioemotional skills for later child well-being? • What is the likely impact on child well-being of randomly-assigned academic, attention and behavioral skills interventions prior to kindergarten or in primary school?

4. Skills, behaviors and attainment across childhood K-12 Adult Prenatal to school entry Child’s eventual school and labor market attainment, and adult crime Child’s kindergarten achievement, attention and behavior Child’s K-12 achievement, attention and behavior Prenatal and infant/toddler environment Home and child care environments Classroom and peer environments Genes Focal paths of influence Other paths of influence

5. Figure 2: A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors

6. Figure 2: A Taxonomy of Skills and Behaviors

7. Temperament Self-regulation/impulse control Negativity Working memory Cognitive SR Emotional SR/Effortful control Reactive Control Attention Shifting Executive Functioning Depressed/ anxious Attention/hyperactivity Anti-social/Aggression Internalizing BP Externalizing BP ATTENTION BEHAVIOR

8. Figure 5: Kindergarten correlations among achievement, attention and behaviors +.69 Reading test score Math test score Correlations: l r l >.60 +.41 +.29 .20 > l r l >.60 -.14 Attention/ engagement -.07 l r l <.20 -.51 -.36 Externalizing behavior problems Internalizing behavior problems +.25 -.19 -.12

9. Age-related Development of Achievement and Attention

10. Age-related Development of Externalizing and Internalizing Behavior Problems

14. School-entry Skills & Later Achievement (Duncan et al., 2007) • Six longitudinal datasets • Reading and Math achievement in 1st through 8th grade • Test scores and teacher reports • Key Predictors: • Math and reading achievement • Attention/engagement • Externalizing (Antisocial), Internalizing (Anxious/Depressed) • Covariates: Family SES, family structure, mother, child cognitive skills/IQ (5 of 6 datasets); mother’s AFQT in NLSY

15. Coefficients from Models of 3rd Grade Achievement – ECLS-K, full controls, including classroom fixed effects

16. Coefficients from Models of 3rd Grade Achievement – ECLS-K, full controls, including classroom fixed effects

17. Coefficients from Models of 3rd Grade Achievement – ECLS-K, full controls, including classroom fixed effects

18. Table 2: Effect sizes of School-entry Skills and Behaviors on Later Achievement; Meta-analysis of 236 Coefficients * p<.05; n=236 estimated coefficients; Source: Duncan et al. (2007). Meta-analytic estimates control for time to test, test/teacher outcome and study fixed effects; coefficients are weighted by inverse of their variances.

19. HS Completion and Crime • NLSY79 Child Supplement • 4 Cohorts: Children ages 5 or 6 in 1986, 1988, 1990, or 1992 • Impute missing data (N=3,893) • Outcomes: • High School completion (78%) & self-report arrest (23%) measured at age 19 or 20 • College attendance measured at age 20 or 21 (47%) • Key Predictors: • Achievement: PIAT Reading & Math Composite • Attention: attention/hyperactivity subscale of BPI • Behavior & MH: antisocial, anxious/depressed subscales of BPI • Covariates: Family income, family structure, mother AFQT, child temperament & child PPVT (ages 3/4)

20. Effect of a 1 sd Increase in Composite Achievement on the Probability of High School Completion, Full Controls Source: NLSY

21. Effect of a 1 sd Increase in Anti-social Behavior on the Probability of High School Completion, Full Controls Source: NLSY

22. What about the persistence problems? • Use worst 25% of the distributions at ages 6, 8 and 10 to define problems • Persistent problems if in worst 25% at all three measurements • Intermittent Problems if in worst 25% on 1 or 2 measurement • No problems (reference group) if never in worst 25% of distribution • Full Controls

23. Effect of Persistent and Intermittent Problems at Ages 6, 8 and 10 on the Probabilities of High School Completion and College Attendance, Full Controls ** p<.01 *p<.05 †p<.10; “problem” is defined as being in the worst quartile of distribution at a given age

24. Effect of Persistent and Intermittent Problems at Ages 6, 8 and 10 on the Probabilities of High School Completion and College Attendance, Full Controls ** p<.01 *p<.05 †p<.10; “problem” is defined as being in the worst quartile of distribution at a given age

25. Figure 12: Effect of a 1 sd Increase in Anti-social Behavior at Various Ages on the Probability of Ever Arrested, Full Controls Source: NLSY

26. Bold fontindicates R>=.20; Regular font indicates R<.2, but statistically significant

27. Bold fontindicates R>=.20; Regular font indicates R<.2, but statistically significant

28. Concluding thoughts… • Continuity within domain • Magnitude of associations do not suggest that outcomes are “predetermined” • Persistence of problems seems to be more predictive than skills at a point in time • Attention skills are surprisingly unpredictve • Need to align with intervention results