PREPOP Meeting

1. PREPOP Meeting Wednesday, March 23, 2011 10 AM – NOON Room 602 WWB

2. Agenda • Operational Product Status Updates (15 min) • Hydro-Estimator precipitation products (Kuligowski/Zhao) • MSPPS/MIRS precipitation products (Zhao/Ferraro/Boukabara) • Blended TPW products (Zhao/Kidder/Paquette) • eTRaP (Seybold/Kidder) • GOES histogram precip product (Schreitz/Xie) • Developmental Project Updates (15 min) • MSPPS snowfall rate (Ferraro/Meng/Zhao) • MIRS NPP rainfall rate (Boukabara/Iturbide/Zhao) • eTRaP enhancements (Ma/Kuligowski/Kidder) • Soil Moisture Products System (Zhan/Zhao) • POES-GOES-GPS Blended TPW and RR (Zhao/Kidder/Ferraro) • Satellite Cal/Val efforts for Rainfall Estimates and POES-AMSU Monitoring (Janowiak) • New satellite data products for TV broadcast market (Ferraro) • SCaMPR improvements (Kuligowski) • Discuss Inactive Projects and Pending PREPOP Projects (All; 5 min) • Special Discussion (60 min) • Impact of MSPPS changes in response to AMSU-B band issues (Zhao/Janowiak; 20 min) • MIRS Rainfall Rate recalibration (Iturbide-Sanchez; 20 min) • SMOPS(Zhan; 20 min) • New Business (All; 10 min) • Review of Action Items (All; 5 min) • Adjourn

3. a. Operational Hydro-Estimator Update(Zhao/Kuligowski) • Operational Global HE User Request (SPSRB 1010-0019): • SPIWG reviewed NWS user request and requested written assurance of NWS funding support; waiting on signed letter from NWS • Multi-Day HE Total Request (SPSRB 1006-0009) • SPIWG tasked Zhao and Kuligowski to determine if this falls under the OSPO Change Management process • ESPC CM Repository • Source code for the HE and SPE have been verified and put in the repository.

4. b. MSPPS/MIRS Rainfall Products (1/2) (Zhao / Ferraro / Meng / Boukabara) • Upcoming Operational Products • F18 MIRS DAP was received from STAR in June 2010, but its operational implementation is pending IT readiness at OSPO – pending for the new Diamond with the capacity to run MIRS with high resolution, which is now targeted in the June 2011 time frame. • The updated and improved snowfall rate algorithm was received from Huan, but its operational implementation is delayed due to the OSPO IT freeze – the task will be put in the queue to compete for Contractor support resources after the freeze is lifted in April 2011. • Tailored Products • A netCDF-to-HDF-EOS encoder has been developed and available to users • Products Anomaly • No changes for N19, N15 anomalies. • The NOAA-16 AMSU-B channel-18, -19 and -20 are gradually getting very noisy as the instrument is aging. The RR product generation should be evaluated, and might need to be stopped in near future if no alternative works. • NOAA-18 “reduced gyro test” will be conducted on March 23-24, 2011; a geo-location error of 10-15 km is expected.

5. b. MSPPS/MIRS Rainfall Products (2/2) (Zhao / Ferraro / Meng / Boukabara) • Impacts of ESPC Contractor Transition and IT Freeze • The IT freeze is delaying the readiness of the new operational machine, which consequently impacts the progress to upgrade MIRS to run at the high resolution (at MHS FOVs). • The IT freeze is delaying the implementation of the updated snowfall algorithm.

6. c. Updates on the Operational bTPW Products (1/3)(Zhao / Kidder / Ferraro) • Operational Anomalies • No GOES data were being filled in over the outback of Mexico, while no GPS was available. Changes were made in the GOES TPW reader to allow the GOES TPW data be ingested into the system correctly. • A bug was discovered in the GPS TPW analysis, which produced problematic TPW gridded analysis, especially while there are only a few GPS receiver stations. The problem has been fixed and implemented in operations, together with a new GPS station file. Before After Before After

7. c. Updates on the Operational bTPW Products (2/3)(Zhao / Kidder / Ferraro) • Operational Anomalies (cont) • GPS data dropouts have been observed more frequently during the past couple of months • Added the option to pick the data file with maximum stations between NOAAPort and FSL ftp site • Increased re-visit and also reduced the time latency from 30 min to 60 min when no data are available from the latest hour. • Surface pressure was observed not correct in the GOES West TPW data file – problem reported and fixed. • Status of Archive • The archive request is still pending for its final approval at NCDC/CLASS. • The backlog data files will have to be deleted due to the space limits at ESPC if the archive can not be started in two or three months. • Archive assessment for the blended RR product has been provided to NCDC, and also an archive initiation was send to NCDC following the newly developed SPSRB archive guidance.

8. c. Updates on the Operational bTPW Products (3/3)(Zhao / Kidder / Ferraro) • Impacts of ESPC Contractor Transition and IT Freeze • The ESPC Contractor Transition put marginal impact on the project schedule. • The ESPC IT freeze is expected to be lift as scheduled on April, 2011, which will allow the transition of the TPW enhancement and blended RR products to start, it will have to compete with all other tasks for Contractor resources. • Blended TPW products tailored for TV broadcasters • Set-up the routine support to transfer data for WorldWinds.

9. d. eTRaP Ma / Seybold / Kuligowski / Kidder(SPSRB 0101-2) • Liqun Ma replaced Matt Seybold as OSPO Tropical PAL • User survey by Mike Turk (SAB); key findings: • Broad awareness of product • Greatest benefit to operations in Eastern / Southern Hemispheres • Equally divided on point vs. area probabilities • B. Ebert proposed both (gridded point values overlaid with contourd area values); discussion ongoing

10. e. GOES histogram precip product (Schreitz / Xie) • Quarterly Critical Infrastructure Protection (CIP) testing was successfully completed.

11. Agenda • Operational Product Status Updates (15 min) • Hydro-Estimator precipitation products (Kuligowski/Zhao) • MSPPS/MIRS precipitation products (Zhao/Ferraro/Boukabara) • Blended TPW products (Zhao/Kidder/Paquette) • eTRaP (Seybold/Kidder) • GOES histogram precip product (Schreitz/Xie) • Developmental Project Updates (15 min) • MSPPS snowfall rate (Ferraro/Meng/Zhao) • MIRS NPP rainfall rate (Boukabara/Iturbide/Zhao) • eTRaP enhancements (Ma/Kuligowski/Kidder) • Soil Moisture Products System (Zhan/Zhao) • POES-GOES-GPS Blended TPW and RR(Zhao/Kidder/Ferraro) • Satellite Cal/Val efforts for Rainfall Estimates and POES-AMSU Monitoring (Janowiak) • New satellite data products for TV broadcast market (Ferraro) • SCaMPR improvements (Kuligowski) • Discuss Inactive Projects and Pending PREPOP Projects (All; 5 min) • Special Discussion (60 min) • Impact of MSPPS changes in response to AMSU-B band issues (Zhao/Janowiak; 20 min) • MIRS Rainfall Rate recalibration (Iturbide-Sanchez; 20 min) • SMOPS(Zhan; 20 min) • New Business (All; 10 min) • Review of Action Items (All; 5 min) • Adjourn

12. Active PREPOP R2O Projects 12

13. Active PREPOP R2O Projects 13

14. a. MSPPS Snowfall RateMeng / Yan / Ferraro / Zhao (SPSRB 9802-5/6) • Project Overview • The project will develop an operational surface snowfall rate algorithm using passive microwave data from AMSU/MHS. • Recent Accomplishments • Limited case studies • Next Steps • Algorithm validation

15. MIRS NPP Rain RateBoukabara / Iturbide / Zhao(SPSRB 9802-5/6) • Project Overview • Adaptation of MiRS to NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) ATMS and integration within NPOESS Data Exploitation (NDE). • Recent Accomplishments • Developed a netCDF-to-HDF-EOS encoder • Provided the NDE team the algo description for the MIRS Level-3 mapped products. • Analyzed the impact of a Hydrometeor Background Covariance Matrix based on WRF simulations • Next Steps • Preparing the detailed documentation for the MIRS Level-3 products • Analyze new strategies to improve the quality of the MiRS rainfall rate.

16. c. eTRaP EnhancementsMa / Seybold / Kuligowski / Kidder(SPSRB 0101-2) • Project Overview • Improve the eTRaP product by • calibrating probabilities against observations to remove bias • determining the optimal product format (point vs. area probabilities) • adding new ensemble members (H-E, SSMIS, R-CLIPER) • adding enhancements (shear, topography, storm rotation) • Recent Accomplishments • Delays in getting the project started; agreed to schedule regular conference calls to track progress • Next Steps • Finish and implement probability calibration • Incorporate H-E and SSMIS data into ensemble

17. d. Soil Moisture Products SystemZhan / Zhao (SPSRB 0707-17) (To be covered in Special Discussion)

18. e. POES-GOES-GPS Blended TPWZhao / Kidder / Ferraro(SPSRB 0708-0023) • Project Overview • To develop an enhanced Blended TPW product which • Includes SSMIS TPW and MIRS TPW • Has a higher resolution (8 km vs 16km for the current operational bTPW) • Uses an enhanced blending technique to fully utilize the capabilities of GOES PW, MIRS TPW, and GPS TPW • Recent Accomplishments • Added MIRS TPW over land and water • Added SSMIS TPW • Improved handling of GPS TPW • Filtering of “eyeball” problem; Fixed Barnes analysis bug; Added land mask capability; Updated GPS station list • Developed an enhanced blending algorithm to fully utilize the strength of each dataset, including AMSU, SSMIS, GPS and GOES TPWs • Experimental products have been developed and runs hourly at CIRA: http://cat.cira.colostate.edu - Blended TPW with SSMIS and MIRS TPW over land http://amsu.cira.colostate.edu/btpw - Blended TPW with the enhanced merging algorithm • Next Steps • Continue working on the fine tune of the new merging algorithm • Operational implementation of the enhanced TPW products after the OSPO IT freeze is lift • Investigating some apparently anomalous behavior of over-land MIRS TPW (conference call scheduled 31 March) • Reworking scripting code to allow script-level control of • Blending algorithm • Data sources

19. e. POES-GOES-GPS Blended RRZhao / Kidder / Ferraro(SPSRB 0708-0023) • Project Overview • To develop a blended Rain Rate product for NWS forecasters • Recent Accomplishments • The blended RR product from MSPPS, MIRS, and FNMOC SSMIS are generated and made available for evaluation on Internet • Worked with John Janowiak for validation • Upgraded the histogram correction with options to • allow different corrections over land and ocean • choose any satellite as the reference satellite, including DMSP F13 • specify the “strength” of correction as none, light, and strong • The product has been developed and runs hourly at CIRA (http://cat.cira.colostate.edu) • Provided archive assessment for the blended RR product to NCDC, and submitted an archive initiation following the newly developed SPSRB archive guidance. • Next Steps • A delta CDR for the blended RR, which is delayed due the Contractor transition, and is planning to be completed by April, 2011. • Operational implementation of the blended RR products

20. Active PREPOP Development Projects

21. f. Satellite Cal/Val efforts for Rainfall Estimates and POES-AMSU MonitoringJanowiak • Project Overview • Provide routine and (as requested) case-study validation of MW-based rain rate products • Recent Accomplishments • Added SON 2010 validation to Web page at http://cics.umd.edu/~johnj/STAR/html/US_page.html • Evaluated impact of AMSU-B band issues on MSPPS changes (see upcoming presentation) • Next Steps • Continue routine validation and case study validation as requested

22. g. New Satellite Data Products for TV Broadcast MarketFerraro • Project Overview • Funded through NOAA’s FY10 SBIR Program • Develop prototype method to deliver new NOAA satellite products to TV broadcasters • Recent Accomplishments • Phase I project completed Dec 31, 2010 • Blended TPW delivered through Baron Systems package • Was used by three west coast markets on the air during December heavy precipitation event! • Both WorldWinds and Baron great to work with. • Next Steps • Phase II proposal submitted by WorldWinds Inc. • Enhanced product list • Reviews due April • They will brief NOAA SBIR in May

23. h. SCaMPR ImprovementsKuligowski • Project Overview • Improve the SCaMPR algorithm by incorporating TRMM data (short-term) and implementing the GOES-R version (medium-term) • Recent Accomplishments • Evaluating the impact of the TRMM data and working on a journal article • Working on a real-time version of SCaMPR that will use MWCOMB as the MW input • Next Steps • Finalize parallel real-time runs of MWCOMB SCaMPR • Implement real-time version of GOES-R SCaMPR (also driven by MWCOMB) to support GOES-R Proving Ground beginning in summer

24. Agenda • Operational Product Status Updates (15 min) • Hydro-Estimator precipitation products (Kuligowski/Zhao) • MSPPS/MIRS precipitation products (Zhao/Ferraro/Boukabara) • Blended TPW products (Zhao/Kidder/Paquette) • eTRaP (Seybold/Kidder) • GOES histogram precip product (Schreitz/Xie) • Developmental Project Updates (15 min) • MSPPS snowfall rate (Ferraro/Meng/Zhao) • MIRS NPP rainfall rate (Boukabara/Iturbide/Zhao) • eTRaP enhancements (Ma/Kuligowski/Kidder) • Soil Moisture Products System (Zhan/Zhao) • POES-GOES-GPS Blended RR (Zhao/Kidder/Ferraro) • Satellite Cal/Val efforts for Rainfall Estimates and POES-AMSU Monitoring (Janowiak) • New satellite data products for TV broadcast market (Ferraro) • SCaMPR improvements (Kuligowski) • Discuss Inactive Projects and Pending PREPOP Projects (All; 5 min) • Special Discussion (60 min) • Impact of MSPPS changes in response to AMSU-B band issues (Zhao/Janowiak; 20 min) • MIRS Rainfall Rate recalibration (Iturbide-Sanchez; 20 min) • SMOPS(Zhan; 20 min) • New Business (All; 10 min) • Review of Action Items (All; 5 min) • Adjourn

25. Inactive PREPOP R2O Projects

26. Inactive PREPOP Development Projects

27. Pending PREPOP R2O Projects 27

28. Agenda • Operational Product Status Updates (15 min) • Hydro-Estimator precipitation products (Kuligowski/Zhao) • MSPPS/MIRS precipitation products (Zhao/Ferraro/Boukabara) • Blended TPW products (Zhao/Kidder/Paquette) • eTRaP (Seybold/Kidder) • GOES histogram precip product (Schreitz/Xie) • Developmental Project Updates (15 min) • MSPPS snowfall rate (Ferraro/Meng/Zhao) • MIRS NPP rainfall rate (Boukabara/Iturbide/Zhao) • eTRaP enhancements (Ma/Kuligowski/Kidder) • Soil Moisture Products System (Zhan/Zhao) • POES-GOES-GPS Blended TPW and RR(Zhao/Kidder/Ferraro) • Satellite Cal/Val efforts for Rainfall Estimates and POES-AMSU Monitoring (Janowiak) • New satellite data products for TV broadcast market (Ferraro) • SCaMPR improvements (Kuligowski) • Discuss Inactive Projects and Pending PREPOP Projects (All; 5 min) • Special Discussion (60 min) • Impact of MSPPS changes in response to AMSU-B band issues (Zhao/Janowiak; 20 min) • MIRS Rainfall Rate recalibration (Iturbide-Sanchez; 20 min) • SMOPS(Zhan; 20 min) • New Business (All; 10 min) • Review of Action Items (All; 5 min) • Adjourn

29. Impact of AMSU-B band issues on the MSPPS rain rate product Limin Zhao 3/23/2011

30. Status of Sensor Health and Product Availability • N15 AMSU-B • The 183 GHz moisture channels failed on Sep 20, 2010 (local oscillator failed), all data are flagged missing. • The 89 GHz and 150 GHz window channels are providing good quality data • No MSPPS Rain Rate is produced with the current algorithm • N16 AMSU-B • The 183 GHz moisture channels are getting much noisy as the sensor is aging out although the sensor is still operated operationally. • The 89 GHz and 150GHz GHz window channels are providing good quality data • MSPPS rain rate products are been producing with the CI-correction off for light rain over land • N17 AMSU-B • The 183 GHz moisture channels failed on Dec 16, 2009 (local oscillator failed), all data are flagged missing. • The 89 GHz and 150 GHz window channels are providing good quality data • No MSPPS rain rate is produced with the current algorithm • N18 MHS • All MHS channels are good • MSPPS rain rate product are available • N19 MHS • Channel 3 (183±1GHz) and its NDET exceeded spec started from Aug 27, 2009, and stabilized around 3.0 K (exceeding 1.0 K specification) since Oct 7, 2009 • Channel 4 (183±3GHz) and its NDET exceeded spec starting from Aug 27, 2009, and stabilized around 0.61 K (back within 1.0 K specification) since Oct 7, 2009, which is back within 1.0 K specification • MSPPS are being produced, no quality issue observed/reported so far • Metop-A MHS • All MHS channels are good • MSPPS rain rate product are available

31. Use of AMSU-B 183 GHz Channels in MSPPS • Ice Water Path Retrieval • Conditions for existence of detectable precipitating cloud • Criteria for adding correction over costal lines to recover ice water path that are missed due to lack of large precipitating ice particles • 183±7 GHz channel for screening false alarm over desert • Rain Rate Retrieval • Used in deriving the Convective Index for separating convective cores from stratiform regimes • Criteria for adding correction over ocean and costal to recover light rain that are missed due to lack of large precipitating ice particles

32. Convective Index (CI) • CI algorithm The CI, which reflects the vertical convection strength of precipitation systems, is calculated using the MHS moisture channels (1831, 1833 and 190) as follows: CI = 1 for 2 >-3 and 2 > 1 and 2 > 3 CI = 2 for 2 > 0 and 1 > 0 and 3 > 0 and 1 > 3 and 2 > 3 CI = 3 for 2 > 0 and 1 > 0 and 3 > 0 and 1 > 3 and 2 < 3 where 1 = 1831 - 190 , 2 = 1833 - 190, 3 = 1831 - 1833 and the values of 1, 2 and 3 represent the exist of weak, moderate and strong vertical convection. A different IWP - RR relation is applied for these pixels with CI=3.

33. Responses to AMSU-B Moisture Channels Issues • Without Action • No AMSU rain rate products available from N15, N16 and N17 • Users have to live with degraded temporal sampling or global refresh rate, which increases from 2.5 ~ 4.0 hr → 6.0 hr while rain rate products are only available from N18, N19 and Metop-A. • Alternative • Disable the classification of convective and stratiform to allow the products be generated with slightly degraded quality • Exploring the possibility of retrieving rain rate without using AMSU-B moisture channels

34. First Attempt • Alternative CI • Made an attempt to use only 89 GHZ and 150 GHz channels over land for defining the strong convective cores CI=3 for BT150 < 173 and BT89 < 220 and land_stag=1 • Changes in the IWP algo • Conditions for existence of detectable precipitating cloud • Replace (BT176 < 265) with (BT150 < 270 && (BT89 – BT150) > 3) • Disable the correction over costal lines • Replace BT176 with BT150 for screening dessert, and adjust the threshold value according • Changes in the RR algo • Use the alternative CI over land • Disable the use of CI over ocean • Disable the correction over costal lines

35. With AMSU-B Moisture Channels Without AMSU-B Moisture Channels

36. Validation of MSPPS Changes in Response to AMSU-B Issues John Janowiak 3/21/2011

37. Evaluation of Changes • Approaches • Verify that the alternative algorithms can generate reasonable retrievals without using AMSU-B moisture channels • Satellite retrievals are matched with the closest radar hourly rainfall estimate: • N18 is used as the reference to compare the retrievals with and without using AMSU-B moisture channel • Performed with Limited Cases • Two weeks worth of data on November, 2010 • Two weeks worth of data on March, 2011

38. Time-space matched satellite & precipitation during March 3-14, 2011 NOTE: time sampling difference between NOAA-15/18 (radar matched for each satellite, separately) Difference Maps RADAR (N15 match) “N15_new” “N15_new” - RADAR RADAR (N18 match) “N18_new” “N18_new” - RADAR “N18_ops” “N18_ops” - RADAR “mm” accumulated over period

39. Swath Rain rate Histograms (light rain) March 3-14, 2011 Nov 15-30, 2010

40. Swath Rain rate Histograms (moderate-heavy rain) Note Y-axis range differences March 3-14, 2011 Nov 15-30, 2010

41. PDFs over global oceans

42. Evaluation of Changes • Approaches spatially, all 3 satellite estimates exhibit very similar patterns and, in general, they underestimate precipitation (relative to radar) in the eastern 1/3 of the nation and overestimate in much of the West. -- Slide 9 • Histograms of precipitation rates in the 0.5 to 2 mm hr-1 range during the March 2011 case are very similar to the Nov 2010 data, with very good agreement among the satellite estimates and with the radar data in the 1.25 to 2 mm hr-1 range. -- Slide 10 • Histograms of precipitation rates in the 2 to 5 mm hr-1 range during the March 2011 period for the modified NOAA-15 algorithm are closer to the radar data than the NOAA-18 algorithms, and are in better agreement with radar compared to the Nov 2010 case. -- Slide 10 • For precipitation rates of 10 to 20 mm hr-1, the modified NOAA-15 results are in very good agreement with the radar data (particularly for rates in the 10-15 mm hr-1 range), and all 3 satellite estimates perform better during this period compared to the Nov 2010 case. -- Slide 11 • All of the satellite estimates exhibit considerably more events with precipitation rates of 25 to 30 mm hr-1compared to radar – although this may be because the radar data are integrated hourly data while the satellite estimates are ‘snapshots’. Note, that while the radar data indicate 0 to 0.03% of the events with precip. >25 mm hr-1 during both Nov and Mar, the satellite %’s are much higher in March than November. -- Slide 11

43. Summary • No MSPPS rain rate products are available from N15 and N17 due to the fail of AMSU-B moisture channels. • N16 rain rate product is degraded due to increased noise in AMSU-B moisture channels • A preliminary attempt is made to recover the MSPPS rain rate product without using AMSU-B moisture channels. • The comparisons with limited data sets show that the retrievals with a-CI in general look good and agree well with that from the operation. No obvious problems have cropped up during the two evaluation periods. • More detailed analysis and evaluation are needed to fully understand the impact of these changes. • Looking for comments/suggestions/recommendations from POP and/or Users • Any requirement or desires to recover the RR products from these aged satellites? • Should we make efforts to improve and implement the changes to operation?

44. Agenda • Operational Product Status Updates (15 min) • Hydro-Estimator precipitation products (Kuligowski/Zhao) • MSPPS/MIRS precipitation products (Zhao/Ferraro/Boukabara) • Blended TPW products (Zhao/Kidder/Paquette) • eTRaP (Seybold/Kidder) • GOES histogram precip product (Schreitz/Xie) • Developmental Project Updates (15 min) • MSPPS snowfall rate (Ferraro/Meng/Zhao) • MIRS NPP rainfall rate (Boukabara/Iturbide/Zhao) • eTRaP enhancements (Ma/Kuligowski/Kidder) • Soil Moisture Products System (Zhan/Zhao) • POES-GOES-GPS Blended TPW and RR (Zhao/Kidder/Ferraro) • Satellite Cal/Val efforts for Rainfall Estimates and POES-AMSU Monitoring (Janowiak) • New satellite data products for TV broadcast market (Ferraro) • SCaMPR improvements (Kuligowski) • Discuss Inactive Projects and Pending PREPOP Projects (All; 5 min) • Special Discussion (60 min) • Impact of MSPPS changes in response to AMSU-B band issues (Zhao/Janowiak; 20 min) • MIRS Rainfall Rate recalibration (Iturbide-Sanchez; 20 min) • SMOPS(Zhan; 20 min) • New Business (All; 10 min) • Review of Action Items (All; 5 min) • Adjourn

45. Present Efforts to Improve and Extend the MiRS Rainfall Rate

46. Implementation of a New Hydrometeor Background Covariance Matrix based of WRF Simulations MiRS Atmospheric Background Covariance Matrix based on ECMWF 60 and WRF simulations CONUS WRF Simulation over Middle Latitude Land Surfaces for SON season South America Australia Hydrometeors based on WRF simulations Temp. and Water Vapor based on ECMWF 60

47. Validation of the New Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix Using Stage IV Rainfall Rate Correlation Probability of Detection Dark Line: Based on Current Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix Blue Line: Based on New Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix

48. Validation of the New Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix Using Stage IV Rainfall Rate False Alarm Rate Heidke Skill Score Dark Line: Based on Current Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix Blue Line: Based on New Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix

49. Impact of the New Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix on the Rainfall Rate Distribution Current Covariance Matrix New Covariance Matrix Estimation of more high rainfall rate cases

50. Impact of the New Hydrometeor Covariance Matrix on the Estimation of Rainfall Rate Current Covariance Matrix New Covariance Matrix Estimation of more high rainfall rate cases