Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate
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Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate Variability on Ecosystem Services of Tidal Marshes, South Atlantic Coast. Chris Craft (IU) Mandy Joye (UGA) Steve Pennings (UH), Dick Park, Jon Clough (Eco Modeling) Jeff Ehman (Image Matters). U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results (STAR) program.

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Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate Variability on Ecosystem Services

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Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Effects of Sea Level Rise and Climate

Variability on Ecosystem Services

of Tidal Marshes, South Atlantic Coast

Chris Craft (IU)

Mandy Joye (UGA)

Steve Pennings (UH),

Dick Park, Jon Clough (Eco Modeling)

Jeff Ehman (Image Matters)

U.S. EPA Science to Achieve Results

(STAR) program


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Altamaha River


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Land

Sea

Tidal fresh-water marsh

Salt marsh

Regulation Functions

Shoreline Protection

CO2 & CH4 Flux

Carbon sequestration

N&P retention

Sediment Deposition Denitrification

Habitat Functions

Macrophyte Diversity

Marsh Nekton

Productivity Functions

Macrophyte ProductivityMarshNekton


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Research Questions

  • How will rising sea level affect abundance

  • and distribution of tidal wetlands AND

  • their delivery of ecosystem services?

  • How will climate variability (drought,

  • flood) affect delivery of ecosystem

  • services?


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Rising sea level

Increased inundation,

salinity & sulfate

Alteration of ……….

Wetland Habitat Ecosystem Services

● Reduction of salt and brackish ● Reduced Regulation Functions

marsh habitat (shoreline protection, CH4 & CO2

flux, carbon sequestration,

N, P retention, sediment deposition

denitrification)

● Complete loss of tidal fresh-● Reduce Habitat Functions

water marsh (plant diversity)

● Increased submerged land● Reduced Production Functions

(plant productivity, marsh nekton,

commercial shrimp yield)

Submerged Land


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Satilla River


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Ogeechee River


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

I. Sea Level Rise

  • Quantify ecosystem services of salt, brackish

  • and tidal fresh marshes.

  • Overlay ecosystem services on GIS map of

  • wetlands.

  • Simulate different scenarios of sea level rise to

  • predict change in wetland area, type and

  • ecosystem services.

  • Evaluate the effects of dikes versus no dikes.

  • Scale to South Carolina-Georgia coasts.


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Figure 4. Study region, including the southeast (GA, SC) coast, field sampling areas

(Altamaha, Satilla, Ogeechee Rivers) and GIS map of tidal wetlands of the

Altamaha River estuary (GA).


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

SLAMM Version 5 (alpha)

(Sea Level Affects Marshes Model)

SLAMM uses elevation,

NWI, tide range and

historic sea level rise

data to parameterize

the model.

The simulation is run

using A1B SRES (mean)

scenario.


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

2050

1986

2075

2100


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Dry Land

Hardwood Swamp

Cypress Swamp

Inland Fresh Marsh

Year 2100

Tidal Fresh Marsh

Transitional Salt Marsh

Saltmarsh

Estuarine Beach

Tidal Flat

Ocean Beach

Inland Open Water

Estuarine Open Water

Open Ocean

Brackish Marsh

Tidal Swamp

Freshwater Shore

Initial Condition

Year 2100


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Init. Cond.Year 2100 Loss

(ha) (ha)(%)

----------------------------- -------

Dry land49,00038,80021

Swamp18,10017,100 5

Tidal swamp 8,300 1,400 83

Fresh marsh 800 60025

Tidal fr. marsh 4,000 1,50075

Brack. marsh10,70011,100 +4

Salt marsh25,10019,700 38

Tidal flat 1005,500 +9000


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

Net Change (1986-2100)

Wetland Area C Sequestration

(ha) (MT/yr)

-----------------------------

Tidal fresh-2,500-3000

(120 g C/m2/yr)

Brackish marsh+400+480

(120 g C/m2/yr)

Salt marsh-5,400-1620

(30 g C/m2/yr)


Effects of sea level rise and climate variability on ecosystem services

II. Climate Variability

Identify relationships between climate

forcing functions (annual rainfall,

temperature, discharge, salinity) and…

temporal variation in ecosystem services

(emergent biomass, epifauna, sediment

deposition, accretion/subsidence and

commercial shrimp harvest).

(GCE LTER monitoring data, NMFS data)


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