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Accommodating 45 Million: California's Growth Challenges and Solutions

This article explores the growth challenges faced by California, including housing affordability, traffic congestion, water and energy supplies, environmental protection, economic opportunity, and urban development. It presents projections for population and household growth by age, ethnicity/race, and region for 2020, as well as potential urban footprints. The article discusses the constraints to quality growth and proposes strategies for accommodating the projected population increase by 2020 while improving the state's overall well-being.

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Accommodating 45 Million: California's Growth Challenges and Solutions

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  1. Growing with Grace:How California Can Accommodate 45 Million People by 2020 and Also Be a Better State John Landis University of California, Berkeley October 21, 2000/Lake Arrowhead Based in part on Raising the Roof: California Housing Development Projections and Constraints, 1997-2020 published by the California Department of Housing & Community Development (www.hcd.ca.gov)

  2. GROWTH CHALLENGES • Restoring housing affordability. • Overcoming traffic congestion/providing more transportation choices. • Secure water and energy supplies • Protecting and enhancing our unique natural environment. • Expanding economic opportunity. • Improving our older cities and existing neighborhoods.

  3. OUTLINE • Growth & Change • 2020 Projected Urban Footprints • Constraints to Quality Growth • Real Effects • Growing Gracefully

  4. GROWTH AND CHANGE

  5. California Population and Household Trends and Projections

  6. California Population Projections by Age, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020

  7. California Population Projections by Ethnicity/Race, 1990, 2000, 2010, 2020

  8. Projected 2020 Population by Ethnicity/Race for Core Urban Counties

  9. Projected 2020 Population by Ethnicity/Race for Inner Suburban Counties

  10. Projected 2020 Population by Ethnicity/Race for Outer Suburban Counties

  11. Projected 2020 Population by Ethnicity/Race for San Joaquin Valley Counties

  12. Projected 2020 Population by Ethnicity/Race for Central Coast Counties

  13. Projected Household Growth by Region, 1997-2020

  14. Projected 2020 Households by Age of Head for Core Urban Counties

  15. Projected 2020 Households by Age of Head for Inner Suburban Counties

  16. Projected 2020 Households by Age of Head for Outer Suburban Counties

  17. Projected 2020 Households by Age of Head for San Joaquin Valley Counties

  18. Projected 2020 Households by Age of Head for Central Coast Counties

  19. 1997 and Projected 2010 Tenure Splits by Region

  20. 1997 and Projected 2010 Tenure Splits by Region

  21. Implications

  22. 2020 PROJECTED URBAN FOOTPRINTS

  23. A Spatially-explicit UrbanGrowth Model 1. 3. Calibration Model: Probability of county grid-cell land use change between times t-1 and t, as as a function of physical, locational, prior land uses, surrounding land use, activity, and policy factors. Calibrated using binomial logit. Mask Exclusion Sites: Based on common sense and policy assumptions, set selected grid-cell probabilities to zero. 4. Allocation: Using exogenous population projections (DoF) , and infill and density assumptions (scenario), allocated growth to remaining sites from highest probability to lowest. 2. Construct Probability Surface: Using estimated model parameters, calculate forward urbanization probabilities for each grid-cell.

  24. Selected Logit Model Results

  25. 2020 Southern California Urban Footprint Scenarios: Greenfield Shares and Allocation Densities

  26. Southern California Results

  27. Inland Empire Results

  28. San Diego Results

  29. 2020 S.F Bay Area Urban Footprint Scenarios: Greenfield Shares and Allocation Densities

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