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农业保险 保费 财政补贴效率研究: 基于农户级微观数据的证据 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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农业保险 保费 财政补贴效率研究: 基于农户级微观数据的证据. 张跃华 副教授 管理学博士、经济学博士后 浙江大学社会保障与风险管理系. 13868130078 [email protected] 目 录. 1. 4. 6. 5. 2. 3. 研究背景及意义. 农业保险保费财政补贴绩效评价思路. 研究方法. 准经济学实验:生猪保险与农户行为. 自然实验:能繁母猪保险与农户供给. 结论及建议. 研究背景及意义. 一号文件. 连续十年中央 1 号文件.

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农业保险 保费 财政补贴效率研究: 基于农户级微观数据的证据

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13868130078

[email protected]


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  • Budget: crop insurance has become the most costly farm program (outside of food and nutritional assistance).

  • In 2011, over 265 million acres were insured in the program, with a total liability estimated at $114 billion. Federal costs of the program in fiscal year (FY) 2011 are estimated to exceed $11 billion, and the Congressional Budget Office projects that 10-year outlays over FY 201322 will exceed $90 billion.

  • Questions

    What Market Failure?

  • The Harm of Subsidies

    Potential distortions

  • Efficient of Subsidy

    As Smith (2011) pointed out, over the 20052009 period, the combination of A&O subsidies and underwriting gains resulted in a return of $1.44 to the private insurance companies for each subsidy dollar returned to farmers (in terms of the excess of indemnities over farmerpaid premiums).


Why dowe subsidize crop insurance

WHY DOWE SUBSIDIZE CROP INSURANCE?

  • What is the price elasticity of demand for crop insurance?

  • Adverse selection and moral hazard are difficult to measure and may have changed over time.

  • To what degree do farm decision-makers experience cognitive failure when assessing catastrophic price and yield risk?

  • With the current premium subsidy structure, subsidy per dollar of insurance protection varies dramatically across different crops and regions.

  • To what extent does this affect planting and resource allocation decisions? What alternative subsidy designs might be less distortionary?


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200964538.6 4890.8 201066686.4320093.33%


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  • 2009-2010600

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  • 20092010

  • SCIDiDJRI


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hog


Swine

swine


Survey

survey


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Insurance impact on vaccine use

Insurance Impact on Vaccine Use


Insurance impact on mortality rate

Insurance Impact on Mortality Rate


Insurance impact on production

Insurance Impact on Production


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Vaccine use for hogs increased significantly after the withdrawal of insurance, while it is not significant for swines.

  • Access to insurance significantly increases the hog production, but not significant for the swine production.

    • swine is like capital for farmers

  • However, all the impacts of insurance is trivial in view of scale.


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  • 2008-200921%

  • DiD


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50%49%,,1%


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