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农业保险 保费 财政补贴效率研究: 基于农户级微观数据的证据 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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农业保险 保费 财政补贴效率研究: 基于农户级微观数据的证据. 张跃华 副教授 管理学博士、经济学博士后 浙江大学社会保障与风险管理系. 13868130078 zhangyuehua@zju.edu.cn. 目 录. 1. 4. 6. 5. 2. 3. 研究背景及意义. 农业保险保费财政补贴绩效评价思路. 研究方法. 准经济学实验:生猪保险与农户行为. 自然实验:能繁母猪保险与农户供给. 结论及建议. 研究背景及意义. 一号文件. 连续十年中央 1 号文件.

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农业保险 保费 财政补贴效率研究: 基于农户级微观数据的证据

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13868130078

zhangyuehua@zju.edu.cn


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  • Budget: crop insurance has become the most costly farm program (outside of food and nutritional assistance).

  • In 2011, over 265 million acres were insured in the program, with a total liability estimated at $114 billion. Federal costs of the program in fiscal year (FY) 2011 are estimated to exceed $11 billion, and the Congressional Budget Office projects that 10-year outlays over FY 201322 will exceed $90 billion.

  • Questions

    What Market Failure?

  • The Harm of Subsidies

    Potential distortions

  • Efficient of Subsidy

    As Smith (2011) pointed out, over the 20052009 period, the combination of A&O subsidies and underwriting gains resulted in a return of $1.44 to the private insurance companies for each subsidy dollar returned to farmers (in terms of the excess of indemnities over farmerpaid premiums).


WHY DOWE SUBSIDIZE CROP INSURANCE?

  • What is the price elasticity of demand for crop insurance?

  • Adverse selection and moral hazard are difficult to measure and may have changed over time.

  • To what degree do farm decision-makers experience cognitive failure when assessing catastrophic price and yield risk?

  • With the current premium subsidy structure, subsidy per dollar of insurance protection varies dramatically across different crops and regions.

  • To what extent does this affect planting and resource allocation decisions? What alternative subsidy designs might be less distortionary?



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200964538.6 4890.8 201066686.4320093.33%


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  • 2009-2010600

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  • 20092010

  • SCIDiDJRI


hog


swine


survey




Insurance Impact on Vaccine Use


Insurance Impact on Mortality Rate


Insurance Impact on Production


Conclusion

  • Vaccine use for hogs increased significantly after the withdrawal of insurance, while it is not significant for swines.

  • Access to insurance significantly increases the hog production, but not significant for the swine production.

    • swine is like capital for farmers

  • However, all the impacts of insurance is trivial in view of scale.


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  • 2009-20101350

  • 2008-200921%

  • DiD




50%49%,,1%



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