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国际油轮船东协会 Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business Environment

国际油轮船东协会 Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business Environment. Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia-Pacific Environmental Manager. 2 nd China Shipbuilding Summit Dalian, 18-20 June 2008. Image Courtesy of NORDEN AS. Presentation overview

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国际油轮船东协会 Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business Environment

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  1. 国际油轮船东协会Future Demands on the Tanker Industry the Upcoming New Business Environment Tim Wilkins Regional Manager Asia-Pacific Environmental Manager 2nd China Shipbuilding Summit Dalian, 18-20 June 2008 Image Courtesy of NORDEN AS

  2. Presentation overview 1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview 2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment • Overview • Environment • Human element

  3. INTERTANKO Today 290 + members operating ca. 2950 ships > 80% of the independent oil tanker fleet > 85% of the chemical carrier fleet 330 + associate members: in oil and chemical tanker related businesses 15 Committees – 5 Regional Panels Principal Offices – London and Oslo Representative Offices in Asia, US and Brussels Observer Status at IMO, IOPC, OECD and UNCTAD

  4. INTERTANKO – The Voice of the Tanker Industry MISSION • To provide leadership to the Tanker Industry in serving the world with safe, environmentally sound and efficient seaborne transportation of oil, gas and chemical products. VISION FOR THE TANKER INDUSTRY • A responsible, sustainable, respected Tanker Industry, committed to continuous improvement and constructively influencing its future. • Lead the continuous improvement of the Tanker Industry’s performance in striving to achieve the goals of: • Zero fatalities • Zero pollution • Zero detentions • 领导油轮工业取得业绩上的不断改进和提高，以努力实现以下目标： • 零死亡事故 • 零海洋污染 • 零港口国控制滞留率

  5. INTERTANKO Membership No. members/million dwt No. tankers

  6. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview

  7. Tanker development (oil and chemical) m dwt number

  8. Options today Conversion to - DH Tanker - FSU/FPSO - Bulk Carrier Recycling Continue Trading Continued Trading Subject to (i) Flag state and (ii) Coastal state acceptability after 2010 Uncertainty over Korea Japan China India Others Future for Single Hulls

  9. Investment in new tonnage - Move to Double Hulls • More than USD 500 billion invested since 2000 with the result that ~95% of tanker fleet double hulled in 2010 Assumed all SH tankers phased out by 2010

  10. Average age tankers above 10,000 dwt (1970-2007) 16 14 12 10 8 6 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 Years

  11. Tanker fleet, orderbook and phase out- tankers above 25,000 dwt m dwt 63 m dwt 155 m dwt 358 m dwt

  12. Single Hull Tanker Phase Out - “uncertainty” post 2010 70 MARPOL (min phase out - trading of SH 60 until 25 years) EU + no SH after 2010 50 OPA90 40 30 20 10 0 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 m dwt • Assumptions : • MARPOL phase out allows for trading until the age of 25 years old, max 2015 • The EU alternative does not allow SH trading after 2010. • DB/DS can trade until the age of 25 years old, but here cut off 2015

  13. Where did the Single Hull tankers go in 2007tankers above 50,000 dwt ‘000 dwt SH Arrivals: 765 1521 618 432 387 1026 1351 1972 NW Europe: 103 arrivals N America: 60 ” Source: Fearnleys

  14. Share of oil import by hull 2007 ‘000 dwt Source: Fearnleys

  15. VLCC arriving in AG1 Dec 2006 – 18 April 2008 Double hull tanker taking over No ships Week number Source. PF Bassøe/Pareto

  16. Phase out by segment

  17. Tanker fleet: by hull type and size segment m dwt

  18. Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankers25,000 – 59,999 dwt, - assume 2.5% trade increase m dwt Overhangfrom pre 08 Number: 347 - SH 312 Orderbook: 475 m wt: 43.7 - SH 11.8 Orderbook: 22.0 Assume all SH tankers phased out by 2010, balanced market end 2006

  19. Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersPanamax – assume 2.5% trade growth m dwt Overhangfrom pre 08 Number: Fleet SH Orderbook Fleet 347 72 134 m dwt: 24.4 4.7 9.8

  20. Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersAframax – assume 2.5% trade growth m dwt Number Fleet SH Orderbook Fleet 749 104 283 m dwt 77.3 9.8 31.2

  21. Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersSuezmax – assume 2.5% trade growth m dwt Number: Fleet SH Orderbook Fleet 363 41 155 m dwt: 54.0 7.6 24.5

  22. Tanker phase out, deliveries, scrapping tankersVLCC – assuming 2.5% trade growth m dwt Number Fleet SH Orderbook Fleet 505 117 219 m dwt 149.3 32.0 67.7

  23. m dwt

  24. Conclusion • SH fleet 40% of the orderbook • SH tankers becoming marginal in most size segments – biggest share in VLCC segment • SH tankers moving to certain areas (66% Asia 2007) • Change in VLCC spot market after SH becoming marginal?

  25. State of the Industry

  26. The rogues of the oil tanker industry SHIP OWNER OIL COMPANY SPOKESMAN

  27. Tanker incidents 2007 by type and accidental pollution No. incidents 1000 ts oil pollution Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/ITOPF/various

  28. Accidental oil pollution into the sea bn tonne-m 1000 ts spilt -45% -33% -82% reduction per tonne miles Source: ITOPF/Fearnleys

  29. Reported tanker incidents Number Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various

  30. Tanker incidents 2007 by type Source: INTERTANKO/LMIU/various

  31. Tanker incidents 2007 by age 13% Incidents/no tankers: 33% 21% 33% 325 incidents

  32. State of the Industry 1. Environment

  33. Tanker Industry’s Environmental Agenda • Anti-fouling Systems • Ballast Water Management • Biofouling • Ship Recycling • Port Reception Facilities • Waste Management • Marine Noise Pollution • Whale Strikes • Spill Prevention and Response Planning • VOC reductions • Atmospheric Pollution - Revision of MARPOL Annex VI • Green House Gas Emissions • Environmental Benchmarking

  34. Air emissions – GHGs • Reduction options Technical and commercial feasibility assessments • Carbon (CO2) indexing Design Index (New); Operational Index (existing) • Market Mechanisms (Economic Instruments) Emissions Trading, Carbon Levy (Fuel tax), Incentive Schemes One litre of fuel on a modern VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) moving one tonne of cargo more than 2,500 kilometres - more than twice as far as 20 years ago

  35. Air emissions – GHGs Vessel Design Index Proposed Index (gram CO2/tonne-mile) = Fuel Cons (g/kW hr) x (ME power (kW) x (1+K2)) x C/c DWT (tonne) x Max Speed (n mile/hr) x K1 K1 is Coefficient of decreased propulsion efficiency in actual sea conditions K2 is Coefficient of contribution to CO2 from aux engines and energy conservation equipment Issues for consideration • Application to all ship types ? • One or more design conditions ? – e.g. load/ballast • One or more sea conditions ? – how weighted ? • How measured / normalised / verified ?

  36. State of the Industry 2. Human element

  37. Human element Availability and Quality Issues But a guiding principle: Human Resources are respected as an asset, not treated as a cost !

  38. Human element • Proud of our people, proud of our ships • Proud of our performance – but not complacent !

  39. Human element • MANNING - IMO Safe Manning Document - ILO Convention 180 - Maritime universities • TRAINING - Cadet berths - Tanker Officer Training Standards (TOTS)

  40. Presentation overview 1. Oil market and Tanker fleet overview 2. State of the industry: future demands on the tanker industry, the new business environment • Overview • Environment • Human element

  41. thank you For more information please visit www.intertanko.com tim.wilkins@intertanko.com

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