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Sardinian Economic System

Sardinian Economic System. Cagliari, 27 giugno 2011 Geography of water 2011 summer school. Outline. Sardinian economic system Competitive factors Environment and tourism: a challenge for the future Concluding remarks. Sardinia in EUrope.

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Sardinian Economic System

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  1. Sardinian Economic System Cagliari, 27 giugno 2011 Geography of water 2011 summer school

  2. Outline • Sardinian economic system • Competitive factors • Environment and tourism: a challenge for the future • Concluding remarks

  3. Sardinia in EUrope PIL pro-capite regionale in parità dei poteri d’acquisto media EU27=100, anno 1998 Fonte: Eurostat XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011

  4. Sardinia in EUrope PIL pro capite regionale in parità dei poteri d’acquisto media EU27=100, anno 2008 XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011

  5. Some comparisonsFonte: Eurostat DATI: Confronti UE: dati Eurostat 1998-2008 (UE27=100) Sardinia and Mezzogiorno are movingawayfrom the EU average The aftercrisisdynamicsis at a dualspeed: XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011

  6. The dynamics of the GDP per capitaFonte: elaborazione Conti Economici Territoriali Istat • Sardinian GDP in 2009 is 33 billion 450 millions euro. • The reduction of GDP per capita in real term for 2008-2009 has taken back Sardinia to the 2002 values. • Mezzogiorno perfermed even worse, in spite of the presence of a strong quota of Public Sector, which usually weaken crisis impacts. • Recession has been stronger in centre north of Italy because of its international exposure - 0,82 - 3,9 XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011

  7. International tradeFonte: elaborazioni su dati Istat-Coeweb • Exports have increased in 2009 (especially because of oil) • Quota of export over GDP: 9,8%: • Greater than in Mezzogiorno • But for ¾ is made of petrochemicals • Other sectors have quite marginal quota (especially by-products of the agriculture sector) XVIII Rapporto CRENoS, Cagliari, 27 maggio 2011

  8. The production structure

  9. Fattori di crescita e sviluppo Butwhatabout the future? • Are we working on our potential in order to have a better growth in the medium-long period? • Three pillars for growth: • Material infrastructure (trasporti, telecomunicazioni, reti energetiche, servizi idrici, ambientali) • Technological change • Human capital

  10. Material infrastructure • 9 indicators: Italy=100 • Persistent gap of Sardinia for all the indicators • - road: 45,6 • - train: 15,0 • ports: 119,8 • airports: 84,8 • education: 53,4 • health: 55,1 • In relative terms the gap has been reduced in health and education 2001 2007

  11. I fattori immateriali 1/ Intangibleassets Competitionis more and more due tointangible (immaterial) assets Europehas the target tobecome the more competitive and more dynamicsknowledgebased area. Letussee the factorswhichcontribute more tothisaim, theircreation and possiblepolicies.

  12. Scientific regions/1 • definition key concepts for knowledge creation and absorption: • Human capital; • R&D activity. • methodology: • Ranking of regions with respect to EU average.

  13. Scientific regions/2

  14. Identificazione degli indicatori Indicators • Human capital: • Quota of population with tertiary education • Quota of population in the education sector • Funds per capita thanks to 5FP • R&D activity: • R&D expenditure per capita • Quota of employment in the R&D sector • Patents per capita • High-tech patents per capita

  15. Research Intensive regions Scientificregions RegionswithotherspecialisationsthanR&D Human capital intensive regions

  16. Conclusioni 1 Preliminaryconclusions • In the last two decades Sardinian economy has been falling behind (likewise the Italian one) • Our competitiveness is based on a model which is biased towards a mix of heavy industries and public administration • The labour market is characterised by usual problems of Mezzogiorno, high young and women unemployment • Recently the performance of the women labour forse has been very positive. • For the future we still have a very heavy gap in infrastructures, despite quite relevant public funds in the past. • The gap is even more dramatic when we refer to human capital and technological change.

  17. Conclusioni 2 In search of good news • Tourism has had a very good performance in the last decade • It is a sector which, despite some critical aspects, is able to compete in the international market, with some important excellencies • Most importantly, in 2009, the annus horribilis for the whole world tourism, Sardinian market has show some remarkable resilient feature.

  18. L’andamento del settore turistico La crisi mondiale ha avuto un forte impatto anche sul turismo, determinando nel 2009 una riduzione del 4% del numero di arrivi internazionali nonostante una prima ripresa nell’ultimo trimestre Tra le principali destinazioni mondiali hanno mantenuto le posizioni solo la Turchia (+1,6%) e l’Italia (+0,4%); quest’ultima dopo un 2008 molto negativo Nostre fonti per l’analisi del settore in Sardegna: Dati definitivi 2008 ufficiali, ISTAT (Gennaio 2010) Dati provvisori 2009, Osservatorio Economico della Sardegna

  19. Touristic demand, 2008

  20. Touristicdemand, 2009

  21. Special features of the tourist sector

  22. Ambiente e Turismo: alcuni concetti base Key concepts/1 Ambiente e Economia Sustainability: “when an economy is endorsed with natural resources which are the main attraction for tourist, a development path is sustainable if it allows such natural resources to generate as much income today as in the future” implications: environmental sustainability, current and of long period, must be associated to economic sustainability, that is the capacity to generate income in the present and in the future, taking into account tourist preference and their modification along time (with increasing income)

  23. Key concepts/2 Tourism industry: is a integrated sector which includes many sub sectors: hospitality, transport, cultural services, agriculture, constructions, articrafts…., ecc. Implications: both the analysis about tourism and the policies for tourism have to be integrated Ambiente e Economia

  24. Specific features of the Sardinian tourism/1 Resilient to the crisis….?!? Ambiente e Economia • Natural resources • Snob and luxury good • Archeological resources • Cultural resources…sardinian identity • Low pression by residents • High average quality of hospitality sector (thanks to economies of scale and some multinationals) • Local environment without crime (at least not as much as in other areas: organised crime, terrorism)

  25. Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia/1 High concentration of demand and supply laong the coast (around 90%) High concentration in summer (70% of nights in june-august) Abnormal presence of second houses (7 out of 8 beds are offered by this sub sector, which is usually informal and unofficial) Low attraction of foreign flows (only 30% even though it is increasing thanks to low cost flights) Ambiente e Economia

  26. Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia/2 Low average expenditure (30% less than in Veneto) Low integration with other sectors and consequently low diffused impact on the whole economy (high dispersion effects) Low “diffused” quality of the entire production chain, starting from public services Low coordination among different actors of the tourist industry Ambiente e Economia

  27. Weaknesses of tourism in Sardinia (according to experts) • Mobility within Sardinia • Low price/quality ratio • Real accessibility to resources and attractions Ambiente e Economia

  28. Some data on the tourism sector in Sardinia Ambiente e Economia 170.000 “official” beds (80.000 in hotels); About 12 millions “official” nights; 25-30 millions nights in second houses with more than 700.000 beds in the unofficial market Regional value added due to tourism is around 8% of regional GDP

  29. 60 euro 880.000 0,12 1,26 0,69 The regional tourist budget: expenditure and V.A. Tourist expenditure= = per capita expenditure* (number of beds* utilisation rate) Regional value added due to tourist expenditure= Tourist exp. x internal multiplier x external demultiplier

  30. Tourism and growth Ambiente e Economia Is tourism good for growth? Empirical evidence says so….especially small islands specialised in tourism have grown at high speed Sustainability along time is crucial in for a development path based on tourism: we need to preserve the quality of the resource….and the market on its own is not able to provide the right incentives to economic agents for such a result

  31. Regional plan for sustainable tourism: why? • Public goods and common resources • (es. free riders, uso eccessivo) • Negative externalities • (es. uso eccessivo della risorsa ambientale, danni reputazionali) • Positive externalities • (es. promozione e marketing delle singole aziende, sistema informativo) • Coordination failure • (es. domanda e offerta di beni e servizi locali, apertura fuori stagione)

  32. Regional plan for sustainable tourism: what for? To develop an integrated touristic industry • Of high “diffused” quality • Based on the attractiveness of its natural and cultural heritage and richness • Diversified in space and time • Based on international demand (which is growing) • Based on price dynamics which avoid price competitions of other localities which have different characteristics, especially in terms of costs Ambiente e Economia

  33. Regional plan for sustainable tourism: how? • To increase the quota of tourism over GDP thanks to • solutions of the long lasting problems seen above • strenghtening the long term competitiveness of the whole tourist system in Sardinia, respectful of environment integrity The PRSTS defines the actions for the public authority to support choices in favour of a general objective:

  34. Regionalplanforsustainabletourism: how? • Some actions (among many others): • Subsidies for the riqualification and modernisation of touristis services • Subsidies for the creation of a certified products with a common brand • Subsidies for the creation and completion of internal production chain for a better intersectoral integration • Marketing strategies to sale destination products in all those markets with high potential and increasing dynamics in terms of income and potential expenditure for touristic purposes

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