Understanding Psychological Science: Fact or Falsehood?

1. Chapter 2: The Research Enterprise in Psychology

2. 8/16/16 Actividades Please come into class and have a seat! I will be providing you with a handout to complete. I will give you 5 minutes to complete these. They will be done in absolute silence

3. Fact or Falsehood? • Read each statement and decide whether you believe it is true or false. • T F 1. Human intuition is remarkably accurate and free from error. • T F 2. Most people seem to lack confidence in the accuracy of their beliefs. • T F 3. Often people think that psychological findings are common sense that people knew all along.

4. T F 4. Even in random strings of numbers or letters, patterns that seem unlikely actually emerge. • T F 5. Given the number of people who purchase lottery tickets, statisticians believe it is actually likely that somewhere, someone will win the lottery twice. • T F 6. Several psychics have been subjected to scientific tests of their abilities and found to possess real paranormal powers.

5. Answers • 1. F • 2. F • 3. T • 4. T • 5. T • 6. F

6. Why do we need Psychological Science? • We function on two levels • Conscious • Unconscious (largely autopilot) • “The first principle is that you must not fool yourself- and you are the easiest person to fool.” (Freyman)

7. Hindsight Bias • The “I-knew-it-all-along” phenomenon • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U7rPIg7ZNQ8 • The tendency to believe, after learning the outcome, that one would have foreseen it • Some 100 studies have shown hindsight bias in various countries, in both adults and children *this doesn’t mean our intuition is always wrong

8. Overconfidence • It has been proven that the less you know, the more you think you know. (Dunning and Kruger Effect) • Dunning and Kruger found that incompetent people overestimate their own skill level, fail to recognize the skill of other people and fail to recognize their own inadequacy. Also, as they receive training to improve their skills, incompetent people tend become more aware of their own inabilities. • We overestimate things ALL THE TIME

9. Perceiving Order in Random Events • We try and find patterns in things that happen every day…that are totally random • We have a difficult time imagining things that seem extraordinary (even though they can be explained by statistics) • Think about this: something that has 1 in 1 billion odds occurs 7 times a day, 2500 times a year

10. Scientific Attitude • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlfMsZwr8rc • Curious, Skeptical and Humble • Empirical approaches • Skeptical NOT cynical • Open NOT gullible • Ask “What do you mean? How do you know?” • Be aware of vulnerability to error • Open to surprises and new perspectives • https://www.ted.com/talks/james_randi?language=en

11. Critical Thinking

12. Bell Ringer 8/17/16 • Why is it important to have a scientific attitude? • Name the 3 components of a scientific attitude • Who killed JonBenet Ramsey?

13. The Scientific Approach:A Search for Laws • Basic assumption: events are governed by some lawful order • Goals: • Measurement and description • Understanding and prediction • Application and control

14. Figure 2.1 Theory construction

15. Figure 2.2 Flowchart of steps in a scientific investigation

16. The Scientific Method: Terminology • Operational definitions are used to clarify precisely what is meant by each variable • Participants or subjects are the organisms whose behavior is systematically observed in a study • Data collection techniques allow for empirical observation and measurement • Statistics are used to analyze data and decide whether hypotheses were supported

17. The Scientific Method: Terminology • Findings are shared through reports at scientific meetings and in scientific journals – periodicals that publish technical and scholarly material • Advantages of the scientific method: clarity of communication and relative intolerance of error • Research methods: general strategies for conducting scientific studies

18. Table 2.1 Key Data Collection Techniques in Psychology

19. Experimental Research:Looking for Causes • Experiment = manipulation of one variable under controlled conditions so that resulting changes in another variable can be observed • Detection of cause-and-effect relationships • Independent variable (IV) = variable manipulated • The Cause • Dependent variable (DV) = variable affected by manipulation • The Effect

20. Experimental and Control Groups:The Logic of the Scientific Method • Experimental group • Gets the IV • Control group • Does not get the IV • Random assignment • Necessary to minimize extraneous variables • Extraneous and confounding variables • Might alter the accuracy of results • Participants are sleepy, in a bad mood, sick, etc. Resulting differences in the two groups must be due to the independent variable

21. Figure 2.5 The basic elments of an experiment

22. Experimental Design Examples • As you watch the following video, take note of the IV and DV for each of the studies listed below: • Domestic Violence Study • Aspirin Study Against All Odds

23. Figure 2.6 Manipulation of two independent variables in an experiment

24. Strengths and Weaknessesof Experimental Research • Strengths: • conclusions about cause-and-effect can be drawn • Weaknesses: • artificial nature of experiments • ethical and practical issues

25. Descriptive/Correlational Methods:Looking for Relationships • Methods used when a researcher cannot manipulate the variables under study • Naturalistic observation • Case studies • Surveys • Allow researchers to describe patterns of behavior and discover links or associations between variables but cannot imply causation

26. Figure 2.10 Comparison of major research methods

27. Statistics and Research:Drawing Conclusions • Statistics – using mathematics to organize, summarize, and interpret numerical data • Descriptive statistics: organizing and summarizing data • Inferential statistics: interpreting data and drawing conclusions

28. Descriptive Statistics:Measures of Central Tendency • Measures of central tendency = typical or average score in a distribution • Mean: arithmetic average of scores • Median: score falling in the exact center • Mode: most frequently occurring score • Which most accurately depicts the typical?

29. Figure 2.11 Measures of central tendency

30. Descriptive Statistics:Variability • Variability = how much scores vary from each other and from the mean • Standard deviation = numerical depiction of variability

31. Descriptive Statistics: Correlation • When two variables are related to each other, they are correlated. • Correlation = numerical index of degree of relationship • Correlation expressed as a number between 0 and 1 • Can be positive or negative • Numbers closer to 1 (+ or -) indicate stronger relationship

32. Interpreting correlation coefficients

33. Correlation:Prediction, Not Causation • Higher correlation coefficients = increased ability to predict one variable based on the other • SAT/ACT scores moderately correlated with first year college GPA • 2 variables may be highly correlated, but not causally related • Foot size and vocabulary positively correlated • Do larger feet cause larger vocabularies? • The third variable problem • http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations 5 Minute Explanation of Correlation

34. Figure 2.15 Three possible causal relationships between correlated variables

35. Inferential Statistics:Interpreting Data and Drawing Conclusions • Hypothesis testing: do observed findings support the hypotheses? • Are findings real or due to chance? • Statistical significance = when the probability that the observed findings are due to chance is very low • Very low = less than 5 chances in 100/ .05 level

36. Evaluating Research:Methodological Pitfalls • Sampling bias • Placebo effects • Distortions in self-report data: • Social desirability bias • Response set • Experimenter bias • the double-blind solution

37. Figure 2.16 The relationship between the population and the sample

38. Let’s Get Ethical! • https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn7-JZq0Yxs

39. Ethics in Psychological Research:Do the Ends Justify the Means? • The question of deception • The question of animal research • Controversy among psychologists and the public • Ethical standards for research: the American Psychological Association • Ensures both human and animal subjects are treated with dignity

40. Figure 2.17 Ethics in research

41. 8/31/15 • Come show me your Vocabulary! • One the bell rings, I will give you 5 minutes to review your vocabulary • Then….QUIZ • Brief review of standard deviation/skews • Review packet over Research Methods 

42. Quick Stats Discussion • Measures of central tendency can be skewed, or lopsided, by way-out scores Mean Negative Skew No Skew Positive Skew

43. Standard Deviation -Normal Curve (most fall near the middle, a few on the extremes