The 17 Feb 2006 Severe Weather and High Wind Event across Eastern New York and New England. Thomas A. Wasula and Neil A. Stuart NOAA/NWS at Albany Alicia C. Wasula SUNY/University at Albany Northeast Regional Workshop 8 November 1-2, 2006. Motivation.
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Thomas A. Wasula and Neil A. Stuart
NOAA/NWS at Albany
Alicia C. Wasula
SUNY/University at Albany
Northeast Regional Workshop 8
November 1-2, 2006
Albany has only ~6 in over 60 yrs in FEB ! Eastern New York and New England
Albany Averages 24 T-storm Days/Year
Data Source: NCDC
16 FEB reports
57 hail 40 wind 1 tornado
Thanks to John Quinlan for this slide Eastern New York and New England
Albany Forecast Area in warm sector (Sfc temps~10°C and dewpoints ~5°C)
This event was extremely challenging on all levels !!!
1300Z 17 FEB 2006
1630Z 17 FEB 2006
Little SBCAPE to work with…but steep mid level lapse rates (based on RUC from SPC)
Unidirectional 300-850 hPa flow
***12Z BUF Sounding FROPA with MLCAPE < 50 J kg-1 and 0-6 km shear 89 kts***
Convective initiation occurs in clear slot behind pre-frontal trough
Clearing ahead of cold front.
0-6 km Bulk Shear values 65-85 knots
MUCAPE < 100 J kg-1
White arrow indicates weak convective instability (theta-e decreasing with height)
SBCAPE < 200 J kg-1
3-hr pressure rises up to 14 hPa
G40 G52 G52 G44 G42 G42
Approaching developing line of convection with the cold front.
Prefrontal trough showery activity helps moisten the boundary layer.
Convective line more organized… no lightning yet !
Bow Echo develops and first warning issued at 1454Z.
Shallow mesocyclone develops N/NE of RDA. Roof blown off home in Edinburgh with northern bow. Southern bow had 62kt gust.
Saratoga County velocity values > 55 knots at 3.3-5.3kft AGL
Washington County hit hard next with 55-65 kts AGL at 3.5-6.5kft. MESO base and top (5.1; 7.5kft)
45 dBz to ~10kft!
VIL 15 kg m2
Squall line passed east of ALY with winds 65-75kts 2-3kft AGL
Winds 80-100 kts 3.5-5kft AGL. KDDH 57kt gust.