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Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services Published by: Bureau of the Census Frequency: Monthly Period Covered: Prior Month Market Significance: High Volatility: High What is it? First report of the month on consumer spending

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Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

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Advance monthly sales for retail and food services l.jpg

Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services

Published by: Bureau of the Census

Frequency: Monthly

Period Covered: Prior Month

Market Significance: High

Volatility: High


What is it l.jpg

What is it?

  • First report of the month on consumer spending

  • It covers retail and food service (durable and nondurable goods) companies with one or more establishments that sell merchandise and associated services to final consumers.

  • Companies provide data on dollar value of sales, reporting period, and number of retail establishments.

  • The data is collected by a mail-out/mail-back survey of a sub-sample of companies and Employer Identification Numbers (EINs) selected from the monthly retail trade survey, Advanced Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services – MARTS.

  • Advance sales estimates are established by kind of business and by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) code.


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What is in the report?

  • Estimated monthly sales for retail and food services.

  • Estimated change in monthly sales for retail and food services.

  • Estimated measures of sampling variability and revision to advance estimates.


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In the report, by kind of business

Retail and Food Services;

Measured in volume sold

  • Motor vehicle & parts dealers

  • Furniture & home furniture stores

  • Electronics & appliance stores

  • Building material & garden equipment & supplier dealers

  • Food & beverage stores

    • Grocery stores

  • Health & personal care stores

  • Gasoline stations


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Cont…

  • Miscellaneous store retailers

  • Nonstore retailers

  • Food services & drinking places

  • Clothing & clothing accessories stores

  • Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores

  • General merchandise stores

    • Department stores


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Why is it important?

  • Key release from the consumer’s demand side.

  • First indicator of consumer activity.

  • Consumer spending makes up 70% of all economic activity and retail sales account for 1/3 of that.

  • Retail Sales are used to compute Personal Consumption Expenditures; an important factor of GDP.

  • Shifts in consumer spending show the moods of American Households.


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Keys to Interpreting the Data

  • Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey (MARTS) is set to measure retail and food services activity at the national level and not at specific geographic areas.

  • Retail sales is measured only in nominal dollars, which means no adjustment is made for inflation.

  • Only shows goods found at department stores, auto dealers, gas stations, food services. Nothing on services; ie medical treatments, haircuts, legal fees, movies, air travel, etc.


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Percentage Change


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More Keys….

  • The advance reports are very volatile and can be misleading; the government revaluates the information periodically. See Graph

  • Dollar figures are gathered from receipts, subtracting merchandise returns and rebates, excluding sales tax, excise tax, and finance charges from department store credit cards.

  • Are seasonally adjusted (Christmas Example; Black Friday)


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Latest Release March

  • Adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $371.6 billion, an increase of 0.7 percent (0.7%)* from the previous month and up 3.8 percent (±0.7%) from March 2006. Total sales for the January through March 2007 period were up 3.2 percent (0.5%) from the same period a year ago. The January 2007 to February 2007 percent change was revised from 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* to 0.5 percent (±0.2%).

  • *The 90 percent confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different than zero.


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Graph of increasing sales from 2000


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Adjustment Differences


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Data Analysis

  • Based on the information from this indicator we conclude:

  • Total Retail sales and Services have increased significantly from the same time last year (an increase of 3.8%)

  • Consumers continue to spend despite housing slump and energy prices

  • Clothing and clothing accessories are increasing

  • Sales of general merchandize stores are increased the highest and will cool off


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Final Numbers

Retail trade sales were up .6 percent from Feb 2007 and were 3.6 percent above last year. Clothing and clothing accessories stores were up 8 percent from March 2006 and sales of general merchandise stores were up 5.8 percent from last year.


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