Analytics at the electricity authority
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Analytics at the Electricity Authority. Presentation at the EPOC Winter Workshop. 5 September 2013. Outline. Market Analytics within Market Performance Priority projects for Market Analytics Other significant initiatives EMI-tools in a browser Retail tariff information

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Analytics at the Electricity Authority

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Analytics at the electricity authority

Analytics at the Electricity Authority

Presentation at the EPOC Winter Workshop

5 September 2013


Outline

Outline

  • Market Analytics within Market Performance

  • Priority projects for Market Analytics

  • Other significant initiatives

    • EMI-tools in a browser

    • Retail tariff information

    • Profile expansion model (PEM)

    • GEMdata update


Market performance two teams

Market performance – two teams

Market Performance

Bruce Smith, GM

Market Monitoring

Doug Watt, Manager

Market Analytics

Phil Bishop, Manager

Enquiries, reviews and investigations (ERI)

Provision of tools and data to analyse, monitor and report on market performance

Monitor and report on market performance

Workstream support

Data warehouse

Annual publications e.g. Year in review

Data and reporting portal

CBAs for Code amendments

EMI-tools – develop and maintain suite of models

Ad-hoc data wrangling and visualisation tools

Post-implementation reviews


Market analytics near term priorities

Market Analytics – near term priorities

  • Consolidate/rationalise/harmonise data collections in data warehouse

    • Access arrangements and data dictionary

    • Data integrity and checking procedures

    • Remove duplication

  • Upgrade data and reporting portal

    • Portal will render CDS redundant

    • More performance metrics – not just data

  • Hydrology dataset – more on this in a moment

  • Use of Github – https://github.com/ElectricityAuthority


More on near term priorities

More on near term priorities…

  • New version of EMI-tools with Doasa and vSPD

    • Sophisticated model code and data updating/management functionality

    • Improved override (vSPD) functionality – sets and parameters

  • Doasa more-or-less ready to go now

    • Doasa ‘lite’, fixed NZ network, independent inflows, etc

  • vSPD v1.3 available now with original EMI

    • Audited in same way as SPD

    • 3 user interfaces – EMI, Excel, standalone

  • vSPD v1.4 being worked on as we speak

    • Incorporates FTR-rent and scarity pricing rules

    • Will need to be audited

    • Codes already on Github


Hydrological datasets

Hydrological datasets

  • Last update in 2010

    • Update overdue and will miss the October 2013 CDS

  • Two main hydrological datasets:

    • Comit Hydro (NIWA)

    • Opus

  • About to start review aimed at:

    • Improving accuracy and confidence in data

      • HRCs, customer compensation scheme

    • Improve alignment between datasets around plant factors used to convert volumetric data to GWh and consented storage

    • Publish annually

    • Consolidate formats

    • Snow pack? Southern Oscillation Index?


Emi tools in a browser

EMI-tools in a browser

  • Looking at option to host EMI-tools on web server

    • Alongside or integrated with upgraded portal

  • Addresses long-standing concern that cost of a GAMS license is prohibitive for some participants and interested stakeholders

  • Initially just exploration and visualisation of final pricing cases, i.e. vSPD inputs and outputs, and probably Doasa too

    • No need for GAMS licensing to be resolved but also no ability to solve GAMS-based models

    • .NET framework identical beneath the user-interface layer

  • EMI-tools would be able to access data warehouse directly via the portal

    • SQL ↔ XML – by-pass GDX if just exploration and visualisation

    • No need for users to manage/store large vSPD input data library

    • No need to solve vSPD in order to get outputs – they’re in the data warehouse


Retail tariff information

Retail tariff information

  • Item C8 in Authority work programme

  • A major undertaking – planning just getting underway now

  • Most likely begin with an Auckland pilot before rolling out nationally

  • Will involve consultation and almost certainly some Code changes

  • Aim to:

    • Enhance analysis and performance monitoring of retail competition

    • Facilitate innovation in product offerings, switching providers and new entry into retail sector

    • Be future-proofed re: smart metering data provision


Profile expansion model pem

Profile expansion model (PEM)

  • A model to help understand the cost imposed on the system by various types of load

    • Residential versus industrial versus commercial

    • Flat versus peaky – day, season, year

    • Winter versus summer

    • Actual or contrived

  • A bit like GEM but without the computational burden

    • A mix of generation technologies each with capital and operating costs, operational capabilities, etc

    • No integer variables

    • Load able to be represented chronologically with up to 17,520 periods or as a load duration curve

  • Start with a clean sheet of paper or expand the existing generation fleet


Load profile factors 2012

Load profile factors, 2012

South Island

North Island

Commercial

Industrial

Residential


Analytics at the electricity authority

GEM

  • Generation Expansion Model

  • MBIE and Transpower use GEM frequently

  • Used much less so these days at the Authority

  • Several other occasional users – based on calls for help

  • Also, many people find the dataset useful, if not the model

  • About to start a small project to update the GEM database and the data preparation tools

    • (Probably) a Python-based toolkit to source, document, and compile GEM datasets

    • GDX ↔ Text/CSV ↔ XML ↔ SQL

  • Move codes from Google Codes to Github

  • Integrate into EMI-tools (next year?)


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