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Swiss Franc Valuation Nation. Presented By: Maggie O’Connell Colleen Traeger David Terschluse Sean McConnell. And we are not John Stiver. Current GDP at $250 billion (289.75B CHF) Recent GDP growth followed ’01-’03 recession Predicted 2.1% growth for ’05 Net assets exceed GDP at 135%.

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swiss franc valuation nation

Swiss Franc Valuation Nation

Presented By:

Maggie O’Connell

Colleen Traeger

David Terschluse

Sean McConnell

economic growth
Current GDP at $250 billion (289.75B CHF)

Recent GDP growth followed ’01-’03 recession

Predicted 2.1% growth for ’05

Net assets exceed GDP at 135%

Economic Growth
money growth and trade
Money Growth and Trade
  • Imposed ceiling on inflation at 2%
  • Predicted ’05 inflation growth – 0.8%
  • Large Current Account and trade surpluses
  • Fiscal account deficit of 2.5% in ’04 due to significant influx of investment
  • Economy holds about 35% of world’s offshore funds
chf facts
CHF Facts
  • Managed floating fiat currency, backed by gold and other currency holdings
  • Most stable by reputation
  • Unlikely EU member
  • Significant appreciation during US ’70s-’80s inflation, depreciation during ’90s
  • Appreciation, along with Euro, ever since 9/11/01
technical analysis
Technical Analysis*

Resistance

Main Trendline

Support

Resistance

Channel Line

New Main Trendline?

*Swiss Franc per US $

Support

  • Since September 2004, the Franc has appreciated in value relative to the dollar
  • Most recent breakthrough of main trendline shows continued appreciation
our cheesy predictions
Our Cheesy Predictions
  • Modest appreciation
  • Mitigation of appreciation with low interest rates
  • Possible peak and change of trend
  • Possible depreciation due to overvaluation of CHF according to PPP
analyst comments
Analyst Comments
  • Previous bottom and the Fibonacci support may give another upward movement from 1.1620-60 range. – Rahul Chandra, Forex strategist
  • USD/CHF is in a downtrend directed by 1H exponential moving averages. Volatility is low. Bollinger bands are parallel and form the trend. Should continue to1.1750.– Arnaud Jeulin, Mataf.net strategist
  • Price dipped marginally bellow our support, and given the bullish divergences we feel there is good case for the resumption of upside.– Iam Copsey, FX-Strategy currency strategist
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