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CCCCIO Spring Conference Monterey, California March 24, 2010 Presentation by: David Longanecker President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE). The Evidence on Student Success in California Higher Education –What, Why, & How. The Case Again for Whopping Big Change

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The evidence on student success in california higher education what why how

CCCCIO Spring Conference

Monterey, California

March 24, 2010

Presentation by:

David Longanecker

President, Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE)

The Evidence on Student Success in California Higher Education –What, Why, & How

The Case Again for Whopping Big Change

With or Without Disruption


Why whopping big change is required

Why Whopping Big Change Is Required

  • Total Quality Management – Continuous Improvement

    • Booz-Allen: Stable State Management System

    • Not a crisis management strategy

  • Your challenge

    • 50 percent productivity gain almost immediately

    • Productivity gain = Quality improvement


The case for change

The Case for Change

  • AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised

    • The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy & Prices, Student Aid

    • Student Access & Success: Enrollment Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation Initiative

    • Educational Improvement: College Readiness, Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher Effectiveness

    • Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting Metrics.


The case for change1

The Case for Change

  • AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised

    • The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy & Prices, Student Aid

    • Student Access & Success: Enrollment Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation Initiative

    • Educational Improvement: College Readiness, Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher Effectiveness

    • Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting Metrics.


The case for change2

The Case for Change

  • AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised

    • The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy & Prices, Student Aid

    • Student Access & Success: Enrollment Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation Initiative

    • Educational Improvement: College Readiness, Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher Effectiveness

    • Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting Metrics.


The case for change3

The Case for Change

  • AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised

    • The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy & Prices, Student Aid

    • Student Access & Success: Enrollment Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation Initiative

    • Educational Improvement: College Readiness, Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher Effectiveness

    • Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting Metrics.


The case for change4

The Case for Change

  • AASCU’s TOP ISSUES Revised

    • The Fiscal Crisis: State Support, Tuition Policy & Prices, Student Aid

    • Student Access & Success: Enrollment Capacity, Veterans Education, the Graduation Initiative

    • Educational Improvement: College Readiness, Focus on Community Colleges, & Teacher Effectiveness

    • Accountability: Data Systems and Reporting Metrics.


The case for whopping big change an emerging perfect storm

The Case for Whopping Big Change An Emerging Perfect Storm

  • Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness

  • Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive

  • Wave Three: What We Have in Resources


The liberal borrowings

The Liberal Borrowings

  • Knocking on the College Door (WICHE)

  • Beyond Social Justice (WICHE)

  • National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) : www.higheredinfo.org.

  • State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO), SHEF Report, February 2010.


The converging waves

The Converging Waves

  • Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness

  • Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive

  • Wave Three: What We Have in Resources


Relationship between educational attainment personal income and economic strength

AK

NV

MI

RI

FL

GA

OH

PA

VT

KS

NC

MO

ME

NE

ID

NM

Relationship Between Educational Attainment, Personal Income, and Economic Strength

$30,000

High Income, Low Educational Attainment

High Income, High Educational Attainment

CT

State New Economy Index (2002)

Top Tier

Middle Tier

NJ

Low Tier

MA

MD

$25,000

CO

VA

NH

NY

DE

MN

IL

WA

CA

Personal Income Per Capita, 2000

US

HI

WI

OR

IN

AZ

$20,000

IA

TX

TN

WY

SC

AL

UT

KY

ND

OK

SD

MT

LA

AR

WV

MS

Low Income, Low Educational Attainment

Low Income, High Educational Attainment

$15,000

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

Percent of Adults Age 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher


Percent of population ages 25 64 with a bachelor s degree or higher

Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS


Percent of population ages 25 64 with an associate degree

Percent of Population Ages 25-64 with an Associate Degree

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2007 American Community Survey. Via NCHEMS


The evidence on student success in california higher education what why how

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S. and OECD Countries, 2005

Source: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), Education at a Glance 2007


Differences in college attainment associate and higher between younger and older adults u s 2005

Differences in College Attainment (Associate and Higher) Between Younger and Older Adults - U.S., 2005

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005 ACS


The white caps on the first wave

The White Caps on the First Wave

  • We’ve Been A Leader

  • But Slip-Sliding Away

    • Losing Ground:

      • The West, and California in particular, are the U.S. Problem

      • Falling Internationally


The unique ccccio challenges opportunities making wave one wave won

The Unique CCCCIO Challenges/Opportunities: Making Wave One, Wave Won

  • With Respect to College Entry

    • Not so bad – clear state Mission

    • Placement has not been synchronized

      • But underway

      • Think Common Core

    • Low hanging fruit – Adults With Some College But No Degree

      • 4.4 Million – 22.7% of Adults in California

    • Ramp up Production of High Value Certificates


The unique ccccio challenges opportunities making wave one wave won1

The Unique CCCCIO Challenges/ Opportunities:Making Wave One, Wave Won

  • With Respect to Progression Through College

    • Need higher thru put: More Transfer and Terminal Associate Degrees

    • The Good News (or so it seems): Transfer and Articulation progressing

    • Consider more aggressive remunerated coop work study programs

    • Focus on being adult friendly – use CAEL’s ALFI assessment.

    • Eliminate time as the enemy

      • Less is more – a default curriculum

      • Guaranteed curriculum if full-time/on-time


The unique ccccio challenges opportunities making wave one wave won2

The Unique CCCCIO Challenges/ Opportunities:Making Wave One, Wave Won

  • With Respect to Completion

    • Same/same as progression

    • Plus:

      • Accept legitimate Prior Learning Assessment (PLA)

      • Better Yet: Encourages PLA

      • Do Degree Audits & Grant Degrees Where Appropriate (Win/Win Project)

      • Intentionally partner with non-public institutions

        • (Yup; I mean private for and not for profit places)

        • Triage almost demands this


The converging waves1

The Converging Waves

  • Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness

  • Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive

  • Wave Three: What We Have in Resources


Projections of california high school graduates

Projections of California High School Graduates


The evidence on student success in california higher education what why how

High School Graduation Rates - Public High School Graduates as a Percent of 9th Graders Four Years Earlier, 2006

Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS


The evidence on student success in california higher education what why how

College-Going Rates – First-Time Freshmen Directly Out of High School as a Percent of Recent High School Graduates, 2006

Source: Tom Mortenson, Postsecondary Opportunity Via NCHEMS


The evidence on student success in california higher education what why how

Difference Between Whites and Next Largest Race/Ethnic Group in Percentage of Adults Age 25-34 with an Associate Degree or Higher, 2000

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, PUMS (based on 2000 Census), Via NCHEMS


The evidence on student success in california higher education what why how

Patterns of U.S. High School and College Participation and Completion by Age (Average Annual from 2005 to 2007)

Not Much Happens After the Age of 24

100%

High School Participation

Earn High School Diploma or Equivalent – Levels off at Age 21

80%

We are left with 13 percent of adults with no high school diploma, and 60 percent with no college degree.

60%

Undergraduate College Participation – Peaks at Age 19, Levels off at Age 30

Complete Undergraduate College Degree – Peaks and Levels off at Age 31

40%

20%

0%

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

AGE

Note: Includes associate and bachelor’s degrees, but not certificates.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005-07 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample)


The white caps on the second wave

The White Caps on the Second Wave

  • Those with whom we have succeeded are declining

  • Those with whom we have not succeeded are increasing

  • “Average” won’t sustain us, and may not even be achievable


The unique ccccio opportunities challenges wave two too being won

The Unique CCCCIO Opportunities/ Challenges: Wave Two, Too, Being Won

  • With respect to College Entry

    • Much the same as with Wave Won

      • Improve Placement – build on Common Core

      • Think “Adults with some college, no degree”

        • Market research & intention works here

      • Think high-value certificates

        • Even post-bachelaureate – i.e. Red Rocks PA program

      • Demand evidence as basis for chage, but

      • Be willing to adapt rapidly – tradition is your enemy here


The unique ccccio opportunities challenges wave two too being won1

The Unique CCCCIO Opportunities/ Challenges: Wave Two, Too, Being Won

  • With respect to Progression

    • REINVENT REMEDIATION

      • Problem is not what we call it; it’s how we do it

      • Approaches to consider

        • Technology blended (National Center for Academic Transformation)

        • Replace prerequisites with co-requisites

        • Modularized self-paced instruction

        • Nix Learning Communities for this purpose

    • Know thyself – get the evidence

      • By: race/ethnicity, major, gateway courses, etc.


The unique ccccio opportunities challenges wave two too being won2

The Unique CCCCIO Opportunities/ Challenges: Wave Two, Too, Being Won

  • With respect to Progression

    • Many of the same as with Wave Won

      • Improve transfer/articulation (under way)

      • Coop work study

      • Adult friendly

      • Garner greater student commitment through incentives – incentivize full-time, continuity (again, time is everyone’s enemy)

    • Develop Cohort approach

      • (and backup cohort)

    • Streamline curriculum – less is more

      • Default curriculum

      • STEM specific curriculum


The unique ccccio opportunities challenges wave two too being won3

The Unique CCCCIO Opportunities/ Challenges: Wave Two, Too, Being Won

  • With respect to Completion

    • Same As Wave Won

      • Encourage PLA

      • Degree Audits

      • Partner with non-public sector institutions

    • Reward Steps Along The Way – Momentum Points.

    • Mine your data

      • To prevent dropouts

      • To re-attract recent dropouts


The converging waves2

The Converging Waves

  • Wave One: Our Economic Competitiveness

  • Wave Two: Who We Are – Can We Be Competitive

  • Wave Three: What We Have in Resources


Life could have been worse

Life could have been worse

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations, and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, U.S., Fiscal 1985-2010

$14,000

14.0

$12,000

12.0

$3,278

10.0

$10,000

$3,293

$3,384

$3,428

$3,387

$3,337

$3,431

$3,288

$4,027

$2,469

$3,375

$2,403

$2,575

$2,518

$3,348

$3,419

$4,116

$3,982

$2,341

$4,068

$3,343

$4,108

$2,434

$2,657

$3,387

$2,550

$3,230

$3,271

$4,178

$3,356

$3,891

$2,608

$2,371

$3,760

$2,691

$2,866

$2,245

$3,146

$3,146

$4,321

$2,274

$3,360

$3,043

$2,501

$3,718

$3,611

$3,431

$2,903

$3,186

$3,524

$3,082

8.0

$8,000

Public FTE Enrollment (millions)

Dollars per FTE

6.0

$6,000

$7,682

$7,979

$7,988

$7,869

$7,825

$7,607

$8,035

$7,993

$4,000

4.0

$7,961

$7,171

$7,770

$7,855

$7,211

$7,547

$6,912

$7,311

$6,951

$7,325

$6,994

$6,454

$7,227

$7,479

$7,195

$6,740

$6,662

$6,986

2.0

$2,000

$0

0

2010

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment (millions)

Note: Net tuition revenue used for capital debt service is included in the above figures. All figures are adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment (HECA).Source: SHEEO SHEF 2010.


Same trend lower amounts in ca

Same trend; lower amounts in CA

Public FTE Enrollment, Educational Appropriations and Total Educational Revenue per FTE, California, Fiscal 1985-2010

10.0

$12,000

$10,000

8.0

$947

$1,445

$949

$988

$878

$932

$873

$1,419

$974

$1,013

$1,506

$917

$949

$1,198

$1,445

$899

$8,000

$1,467

$1,487

$1,562

$1,598

$1,230

$1,687

$1,457

$1,649

$1,404

6.0

$1,814

Public FTE Enrollment (thousands)

Dollars per FTE

$6,000

4.0

$8,730

$8,534

$8,302

$8,292

$8,302

$8,240

$8,293

$8,026

$7,961

$4,000

$7,773

$7,741

$7,596

$7,682

$7,546

$7,393

$7,404

$7,095

$7,204

$7,227

$7,132

$6,929

$6,815

$6,690

$6,585

$6,486

$6,065

2.0

$2,000

0

$0

2010

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

Educational Appropriations per FTE (constant $) Net Tuition Revenue per FTE (constant $) Public FTE Enrollment (millions)

Note: Constant 2009 dollars adjusted by SHEEO Higher Education Cost Adjustment. 2009 Educational Appropriations include ARRA funds. (HECA)

Source: SSDB


Revenues per student from net tuition state local appropriations public research

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Research

Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS


Revenues per student from net tuition state local appropriations public masters and baccalaureate

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local Appropriations Public Masters and Baccalaureate

Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS


Revenues per student from net tuition state local appropriations public 2 year

Revenues Per Student from Net Tuition, State, & Local AppropriationsPublic 2-Year

Sources: NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Finance Files; f0607_f1a and f0607_f2 Final Release Data Files. NCES, IPEDS 2007-08 Institutional Characteristics File; hd2007 Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS 2006-07 Enrollment Files; ef2006a, effy2007, and efia2007 Final Release Data Files. Via NCHEMS


Projected state and local budget surplus gap as a percent of revenues 2016

Projected State and Local Budget Surplus (Gap) as a Percent of Revenues, 2016

Source: NCHEMS; Don Boyd (Rockefeller Institute of Government), 2009 Via NCHEMS


State tax capacity effort indexed to u s average

State Tax Capacity & EffortIndexed to U.S. Average

1.7

DE

1.6

1.5

1.4

CT

NJ

1.3

MA

AK

1.2

WY

State Tax Capacity (Total Taxable Resources Per Capita)

MD

NY

VA

NH

1.1

MN

CO

IL

NV

WA

CA

RI

1.0

US

PA

NE

WI

NC

GA

KS

HI

MO

SD

IA

OH

FL

IN

VT

TX

OR

0.9

TN

AZ

ND

ME

MI

UT

SC

KY

0.8

ID

NM

LA

AL

OK

WV

MT

AR

0.7

MS

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

State Tax Effort (Effective Tax Rate)

Source: State Higher Education Executive Officers (SHEEO)


Productivity total funding per degree certificate weighted 2006 2007

Productivity: Total Funding per Degree/Certificate (Weighted*, 2006-2007)

*Adjusted for value of degrees in the state employment market (median earnings by degree type and level)

Sources: SHEEO State Higher Education Finance Survey 2008; NCES, IPEDS Completions Survey; U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Samples)


The white caps on the third wave

The White Caps on the Third Wave

  • Prospects look bleak for much more in the short term

  • New Normal suggests a very different future than past.

  • Triage often sacrifices the most vulnerable


T he unique ccccio challenges opportunities wave three show me the money

The Unique CCCCIO Challenges/Opportunities: Wave Three – Show me the money

  • With respect to Entry into College

    • Tuition revenue, done smartly, is most of the answer

    • Balanced by financial aid is key

  • With respect to Progression through College

    • Tuition and financial aid remain key

    • Revise the rewards to focus on student success

      • Pay only for successful remediation – regardless of modality used

      • Pay only for completed courses -- tough love


T he unique ccccio challenges opportunities wave three show me the money1

The Unique CCCCIO Challenges/Opportunities: Wave Three – Show me the money

With respect to Completion

  • Know thyself – focus on gaps, not successes

  • Clearly articulated pathways reduce student and state costs

  • Don’t enroll students in course that don’t articulate to their degree goals

  • Price by priority

    • Currently in place for resident/non-resident

    • Why not for core vs luxury/high vs low-value

  • Streamline programs – dropping the duds

    • Where academic success is too low to justify

    • Where ROI is too low to justify

  • Outsourcing or Pairing


  • The california story three huge converging waves the makings of a perfect storm

    The California story – Three Huge Converging Waves -- The Makings of A Perfect Storm

    • Demographics present a challenge, all else being equal

    • The finances are perilous

    • We have been educationally competitive, which has made us economically competitive and comparative just, but:

      • Were slipping

      • And the good life has not been equitably distribute


    Creating a new business model what i hear see

    Creating a New Business Model – What I Hear & See

    • Who Will Lead – Academic Leaders or Other Leaders?

      • From the Community College “Community”

        • ACCT: Governance Institute for Student Success.

        • Foundations:

          • Achieving the Dream – top down through data driven reform, and limited success to date

          • Completion by Design – still in design

        • ____________ -- meet the goal


    Creating a new business model what i hear see1

    Creating a New Business Model – What I Hear & See

    • TRIAGE happens, whether intentional or not.

      • Lack of course availability

      • Low success rates

        • In remedial/developmental

        • In college level coursework

          • Particularly in STEM field

          • And indefensibly biased by race/ethnicity

      • Justifiable within current business model

        • Can’t afford more courses

        • Can’t support resources necessary for course success

      • But unjustifiable in support of Mission

      • So must create a new business model

    • Is that possible?

      • Disruptive technologies theory says no

      • We can’t live with that


    Creating a new business model dave s nine tenets of a new way

    Creating a New Business Model – Dave’s Nine Tenets of A New Way

    • Evidence based – data driven

    • Improvement imperative – Whopping big in the short term, continuous improve-ment, on benchmarks achieved.

    • Well, nearly continuous improvement. Recognize periodic perturbations.

    • Take reasonable risk & expect some failure.


    Creating a new business model tenets of a new way

    Creating a New Business Model – Tenets of A New Way

    • Eliminate what can’t be done well enough.

    • Be genius – borrow generously.

      • Follow the CASEstudy approach

    • Reward success and champions of success (make performance count for regular folk).

    • Make this work fun

      • We work live, not live to work.

    • Don’t have too many tenets


    That s all there is

    That’s all there is

    Enough Already


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