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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future. NARUC Annual Meeting November 14, 2007 Hank Courtright Senior Vice President. CO 2 Reductions … Technical Potential*. * Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. EIA Base Case 2007.

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Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future

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  1. Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future NARUC Annual Meeting November 14, 2007 Hank Courtright Senior Vice President

  2. CO2 Reductions … Technical Potential* * Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible. EIA Base Case 2007

  3. EPRI “PRISM” - CO2 Reductions

  4. Assumed Economy-Wide CO2 Constraint Prism electric sector CO2 emission profile PRISM profile nearly matches economically optimal amount of CO2 electric sector reductions required if economy-wide emissions are held flat from 2010-20, then decline at 3%/year thereafter Year

  5. Electricity Technology Scenarios

  6. Coal Gas Oil Hydro Solar Demand with No Policy 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 w/CCS w/CCS Nuclear Wind Biomass Demand Reduction Full Portfolio (economic allocation) Trillion kWh per Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 U.S. Electric Generation - Full Portfolio The vast majority of electricity supply is CO2-free Wind Hydro Nuclear Gas and non-captured coal are the only supply options paying a CO2 cost Gas Coal with CCS Public Policy (RPS) can modify this economic allocation Coal

  7. Coal Gas Oil Hydro Solar Demand with No Policy 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 w/CCS w/CCS Nuclear Wind Biomass Demand Reduction Limited Portfolio (economic allocation) Trillion kWh per Year 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 U.S. Electric Generation – Limited Portfolio With a less de-carbonized supply, electricity load must decline to meet the CO2 emissions target Biomass Wind Nuclear Hydro Gas (with half the CO2 of coal) pays a significant CO2 cost Gas Coal

  8. CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide With a de-carbonized electricity supply, other parts of the economy pay a CO2 cost… not the electricity sector $/ton CO2* Limited Full Year *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

  9. CO2 Emission Cost – Economy Wide With a less de-carbonized supply, the electricity sector pays a significant CO2 cost…along with other sectors $/ton CO2* Limited Full Year *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

  10. Wholesale Electricity Price In the Full Portfolio the price of electricity has a low CO2 cost component and increases less Limited Index Relative to Year 2000 $/MWh* Full Year *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

  11. Wholesale Electricity Price In the Limited Portfolio the price of electricity has a higher CO2 cost component and increases substantially Limited Index Relative to Year 2000 $/MWh* Full Year *Real (inflation-adjusted) 2000$

  12. Coal Gas Oil Hydro Solar Demand with No Policy w/CCS w/CCS Nuclear Wind Biomass Demand Reduction 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 Limited Portfolio Full Portfolio +45% +260% Trillion kWh per Year Trillion kWh per Year 2000 2000 2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030 2040 2040 2050 2050 Increase in Real Electricity Prices…2000 to 2050 Both Scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO2 Cap* *Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr

  13. Achieving the Full Portfolio • Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable end-use efficiency and demand response, distributed generation, and PHEVs. • A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate with 20-30% intermittent renewables in specific regions. • Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and a viable strategy for managing spent fuel. • Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with 90+% CO2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies. ALL of the following technology advancements will be needed in order to have a full portfolio of technologies available for reducing CO2 emissions over the coming decades:

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