Do elections matter ?

1. Do electionsmatter? 4 December 2013

2. 1. General issues

3. Does democracy matter? • Prevents long-term tyranny • Dictators may be elected, but don’t win reelection • Preserves liberal rights • People desire rights • But illiberal democracy: sometimes majority wants to limit rights of minority • Produces best policies (wisdom of crowds, Condorcet) • But conditions are not always met • Increases legitimacy of system • Prevents wars (democratic peace) • An end in itself (zoon politikon) • Better than other systems

4. But problems of democracy • Inefficient (campaigns, elections, patronage) • Ineffective (checks and balances) • May need strong authority for state-building, economic reform • Bad policy choices (uninformed citizens, lobbies) • Democratizing states more likely to fight wars • Doesn’t listen to experts • Creates conflict • Can use liberal rights to promote hate (Rwanda) • Unstable (regular changes of government) • Ugly (sausages and laws)

5. Elite theorists – Michaels, Mosca, Pareto • Democracy just an illusion • All societies are ruled by an elite – economic and political • People want to be ruled – not capable of freedom • Iron law of oligarchy: expert knowledge, specialization • At best circulation of elites: changing from one elite to another • Or separation of economic, political, cultural elites • But real democracy cannot work • Michels studies German SPD which tries to be democratic but fails • Is CZ ruled by an elite class?

6. 2. Political cycles

7. Periodic elections influence decisions of politicians • Citizens are myopic: only see short-term • As elections approach, incentives of politicians change • Want public to be pleased • Possible reactions • Make sure economy is growing before elections • Make sure promises are fulfilled • Make sure public is distracted

8. Political business cycle • Business cycle that results from actions of politicians • Attempt to stimulate the economy before elections • Monetary stimulus – but leads to creation of independent central bank • Fiscal stimulus – spending and gifts to electorate • But consequences • Need to put on brakes after election or get high inflation and large budget deficits

9. A Czech political business cycle?

10. Other manipulations • Theory of diversionary war • Government initiates foreign conflict in order to distract public from domestic problems • “Rally round the flag effect” – public supports leader in times of danger • Film “Wag the Dog” • Examples: Falklands • Judicial elections in US • Judges give longer sentences in year prior to elections • Voters like “hanging judges” – harsh punishments

11. 3. Partisan influences

12. Mandate theory • Parties present alternative programs • Voters choose between these programs • Winning parties implement their programs • Therefore: Should see changes in policy along with changes in government

13. Partisan cycles • Policy and outcomes should change with governments • Left-wing governments favor low unemployment • Supporters are workers • Right-wing governments favor low inflation • Supporters are business and capital • Both should favor economic growth

14. Poor do better with Democrats in US

15. Many studies of relation between partisanship and economic results • Typical design: regression analysis of cross-national time-series data • Partisanship and macroeconomics (growth, inflation, unemployment) • Manifesto data (emphasis on policy area) and government spending • Hibbs, Garrett, Boix, etc. • Results: • Left-wing governments do seem more sensitive to growth and unemployment • Governments that emphasize policy do spend more • But • Lots of problems with methods • Many other influences on economy besides government • Government has to respond to previous government

16. Partisan changes in the Czech economy? • My quick calculations • From 1996 to 2013 • 31 quarters of right-wing governments: average +1.8% growth • 32 quarters of left-wing government: average +3.8% growth • 6 quarters of caretaker government: average -1.0% growth • Is CSSD better for growth? What policies did they introduce? • Or were the lucky to be in government at the right time (1998-2006) • ODS gets recession in 1997 and 2008

17. Czech inequality trends

18. A better view

19. Do reform promises predict reform? • I characterized post-communist governments by whether they supported or opposed reforms in their campaigns • Then considered how much they reformed (EBRD reform scores) • Very little relationship between reform promises and reforms • In particular, many left-wing governments attack reform in campaign but then introduce many reforms – eg, CSSD

20. Conclusions

21. What does the future hold? • A government by Christmas? • A new election next year? Who would win? • What sort of policies? • Taxes, spending, healthcare, pensions, Church restitution, corruption and transparency

22. Final exam • Identifications: 8 concepts, you choose 5 and write 1-2 sentences about what it is • I will provide a list of terms • Short answer: 6 questions, you choose 3 and write 1-2 paragraphs • Mostly describing a particular theory • Essay: Here is the question • Does the 2013 Czech election fit standard theories of elections? Pick two topics that we have discussed this semester. One topic should be one where the 2013 election fit standard theories of political science and the other should be one where the 2013 election did not fit standard theories. In your essay, first show how the election fit and did not fit these standard theories, then explain why it fit and did not fit. In your conclusion, say whether this was a “typical” election or an unusual one.

23. What we have learned • How to think about political science: cause and effect • Policy space and party ideologies: linkages between parties & voters – programmatic, clientelistic, charismatic; left-right and other policy dimensions in CZ; ways of measuring ideology • Promises: mandate responsiveness, policy switches – good or bad; party promises – do parties fulfill promises • Election campaigns: defining a campaign; minimal or maximal effects; types of campaigns; negative campaigns; internet campaigning; what works and what doesn’t

24. What we have learned, continued • Media and media bias: what is bias, is media biased; what can we do to make coverage better • Polls and polling: accuracy and variability of polls, how do people answer polls, who is left out of polls • Determinants of election results: electoral accountability, economic voting, voting in postcommunist Europe; problems with economic voting • Turnout and participation: paradox of voting; turnout trends and explanations; how to increase turnout; contentious politics; civil society and its weakness

25. What we have learned, continued • Campaign finance: varieties of rules; do they work; does money matter; who do politicians listen to; corruption • Political information: how much does public know; can democracy work without knowledge; systematic biases; are elites better; what can we do? • Do elections matter: does democracy matter; political cycles, partisan cycles; policy responsiveness