Alex C. MUELLER

1. Alex C. MUELLER Contribution au séminaire de ISCC "Epistémologie de la Communication" "Vérités scientifiques contre Obscurantismes": quelques réflexions dans le contexte de la communication autour de l'énergie nucléaire.

2. Les Questions du Séminaire ISCC - Quels sont les impacts des modèles communicationnels sur les théories de la connaissance? J'en ai pas la moindre idée! - Comment penser les conditions d’émergence ou de naissance des disciplines scientifiques? Quelques indications à propos de la LCA* - Quelles ruptures de paradigmes scientifiques ont été produites par l’émergence de ces nouveaux territoires de recherche? On a rompu des paradigmes "ecolopolitiques" en appliquant une démarche scientifique - Comment envisager selon votre discipline scientifique, le corpus suivant (pour exemple : communication, dialogue, émission, interaction, langage, mémorisation, organisation, savoirs, technologies de l’information et de la communication, transmission, etc...)? Quelques indications indirectes - Quel est le rôle de la communication dans la théorie de la connaissance? Je n'en sais rien. *LCA = Life Cycle Analysis

3. La perception du CNRS dans le baromètre de l'IRSN 2006 (sur des questions du nucléaire)

4. Urgency of knowledge-based approach Common, but not "knowledge based" opinions/misconceptions (alas, often voiced by political ecologists) • We have just to replace fossile energy (nuclear) • sources by "renewable" energies • Sufficient initial public subsidizing will be a quick means • to reach economic competitiveness for any "renewable" • energy through mass-production • It is impossible to solve the nuclear waste issue • (gegen Kernmüll kan man "bekanntlich" nichts tun)

5. We must consider our planet to be on loan from our children, rather than being a gift from our ancestors. (...) As caretakers of our common future, we have the responsibility to seek scientifically sound policies, nationally as well as internationally. If the long-term viability of humanity is to be ensured, we have no other choice. (Gro Harlem Brundtland) Definitions from the Brundtland Commission: Sustainable Development is development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. It’s a process of change in which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of technological development and institutional change are made consistent with future as well as present needs. What is "Sustainability" ?

6. Measuring Sustainability • Sustainability of an energy producing system can be • measured by costs if all costs are considered. • all costs = internal + external (use of environment) • over the whole cycle of life • hence, management rules (from Voss 2005) • The supply of energy services shall be carried out with • the possibly lowest total costs. • Total costs represent a useful measure for the usage of • scarce resources. • Therefore they are an indicator for relative sustainability • of technologies and systems for supplying energy. • Research and development are the basis for improving • efficiencies for usage of resources, for limiting energy • caused environmental impacts and for expanding the • technical-economical energy-basis for future generations.

7. Growth in World Energy Demand ("typical" predictions) also "typical": electricity = 1/3 of primary energy electricity = 40% of world's CO2 emissions Nuclear share of electricity: 17% world-wide 35% Europe 78% France

8. Total de CO2 émis: 24 milliards de tonnes par an Énergies primaires responsables

9. Rejets par an et par habitant en FRANCE • Industriels: 2,5 tonnes dont 100 kg toxiques • Ménagers: 0,8 tonne • Dioxyde de carbone CO2: 6 tonnes • Nucléaires: 1 kg dont 100 g de moyenne et forte activités

10. 0 ou 1500 900 400 100 3-20 6 4 950 340 Autres énergies fossiles Fioul: 800 g/kWh Gaz: 570 g/kWh

11. Equivalences de différentes énergies primaires 1,7 tonnes de charbon 1 tonne de pétrole 3,3 tonnes de bois 0,5 gramme de matière fissile

12. Total life cycle raw material requirements Source: Marheineke 2002

13. Inspite of being unable to meet Kyoto 2010 objectives, le federal Gvt fixes for 2020 an even more ambitious objective: -40% MTeqCO2 in 2020. MTequ.CO2 -0.6% Yet, if the presenty adopted measures are to be maintained, one may land here ("common sense" extra- Polation by H. Flocard) . Black point = DFG analysis (taking into account the phase-out of nuclear power as presently Imposed by law) The German Plan Political Fiction (2020 = -40%) Red Point: Flocard extrapolation And continuation of Nuclear Power at present level

14. HealthRisk in YOLL / GWh Source Hirschberg, PSI (2004)

15. Costsincludingexternalities Source Hirschberg, PSI (2004)

16. Le "casse-tête" énergétique • Les hypothèses pour 2050 • La consommation d’énergie n’augmentera que d’un facteur 2 (économie d’énergie !) • L’émission de CO2 sera réduite d’un facteur 2 2005 2050 Consommation ~10 Gtep (% de 10 Gtep) 20 Gtep (% de 20 Gtep) Fossiles 7.9 78% : 2 4.1 20% Bois+déchets 1.0 10% x 3 3.3 17% Hydraulique 0.6 6% x 2 1.2 6% Autre renouvelables* 0.05 0.5% x 100 5.4 27% Nucléaire 0.6 6% x 10 6.0 30% *Solaire thermique et photovoltaique, éolien, géothermie, biomasse