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WFP

WFP. LEAP estimate of Regional Livelihood Protection Needs Sandro Calmanti Addis Ababa, April 2010. contribution from Niels Balzer, Bronwyn Cousins, Teshome Erkineh, Ulrich Hess, Peter Hoefsloot, Mattehows Hunde, Muktar Reshid, Joanna Syroka, Elliot Vhurumuku input data provided by

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WFP

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  1. WFP LEAP estimate of Regional Livelihood Protection Needs Sandro Calmanti Addis Ababa, April 2010 contribution from Niels Balzer, Bronwyn Cousins, Teshome Erkineh, Ulrich Hess, Peter Hoefsloot, Mattehows Hunde, Muktar Reshid, Joanna Syroka, Elliot Vhurumuku input data provided by DRMFSS, NMA, MoARD, FAO, FewsNET, University of Reading

  2. LEAP WRSI: deviation from normal Meher 2009 Belg 2010

  3. Concluding Remarks • A methodology to compute beneficiary numbers has been developed, simple, transparent and robust. • The calculation methodology is based on LEAP Water Requirement Satisfaction Index output • Compared to historical records, the method and provides valuable information. • The method can be continuously improved and adapted by including more and more accurate information on farming practices, risk profiles etc.

  4. Schedule of Needs Assessments The methodology is flexible: can be used for early assessments of livelihood needs at different times of the year. End May End October New year Belg Assessment Meher Assessment Combined Belg & Meher Assessment

  5. Model assumptions • The rate of change in number of beneficiaries is smallwhen the drought is not severe • The rate of change in number of beneficiaries is large when the drought is severe • A failure level for drought intensity exists when the entire population at riskneeds assistance

  6. Model parameters Model input LEAP based Water Requirement Satisfaction Index Population Woreda by Woreda Parameters N0: Needs in case of optimal rainfall (chronic food insecure) NR: Population at risk F: Level of drought severity that requires entire population at risk to be assisted

  7. a few examples of LEAP beneficiaries compared to HISTORICAL records of annual beneficiaries In Crop Areas

  8. AMHARA Belg & Meher Assessment Last Meher Year Belg Assessment

  9. OROMYA Belg & Meher Assessment Last Meher Year Belg Assessment

  10. TIGRAY Belg & Meher Assessment Last Meher Year Belg Assessment

  11. Pastoral Areas • In pastoralareas the LEAP Water RequirementSatisfactionIndex (WRSI) at the end of the cropseason can notbeadoptedasanindicatoroffood security hazards. • LEAP provides a RangelandIndexthatweusetoconstruct a suitableindexforpastoralareas.

  12. Rangeland Index

  13. Pastoral Index Pastoral Index defined as: regionally averaged mean annual rangeland index Examples of Pastoral Index defined over different averaging time intervals

  14. Afar Last Meher Year

  15. LEAP Outlook for Meher-2009/Belg-2010

  16. LEAP WRSI: deviation from normal Meher 2009 Belg 2009

  17. LEAP Beneficiaries for 2010

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