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PREPARED and CC Adaptation Work

PREPARED and CC Adaptation Work. Gary Eilerts, Chris Funk, Gideon Galu, James Verdin, James Rowland …. PREPARED. Planning for Resilience in East Africa Adaptation, Research and Economic Development Six year, $40 million dollar USAID Project

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PREPARED and CC Adaptation Work

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  1. PREPARED and CC Adaptation Work Gary Eilerts, Chris Funk, Gideon Galu, James Verdin, James Rowland …

  2. PREPARED • Planning for Resilience in East Africa Adaptation, Research and Economic Development • Six year, $40 million dollar USAID Project • Global climate change (50%), water (25%) and biodiversity congressional ear marks

  3. Intermediate Results IR 1: Climate change adaptation technical capacity, policy leadership, and action readiness of regional institutions improved IR 2: Resilient and sustainable management of biologically significant transboundary freshwater ecosystems in the East African Community region strengthened IR 3: Resilient and sustainable drinking water supply, sanitation, and wastewater treatment services in the Lake Victoria Basin enhanced

  4. Decisions? 1) strategic and targeted on-the-ground investments in water resources management and governance as well as WASH service delivery in the countries of the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) 2) biodiversity conservation activities 3) linkages to other USAID/EA/REGI programming, particularly ties to USAID/EA’s Feed the Future (FtF) strategy

  5. Countries Kenya Uganda Rwanda Burundi Tanzania

  6. Current Climate Projections

  7. ESRL ECHAM5 Simulations

  8. Development Challenges PREPARED expects to contribute indirectly to the success of the FtF program by expanding investments in scientific capacity, improved climate information, predictions and diffusion of information, and evidence-based analysis to identify vulnerabilities in selected value chains and agro-ecological regions. Furthermore, USAID/EA plans to invest in building the capacity of regional partners and stakeholders to make use of climate information and analysis in decision-making.

  9. National Objectives USAID/Kenya USAID/Kenya is investing in Kenya’s agricultural sector … water conservation and efficiency, sustainable water harvesting, drought tolerant crops, terracing and contour farming, integrated pest management, training on deeper fertilizer/seed placement in dry seasons, and altering planting dates based on rainfall predictions to cope with rainfall variability. On-the-ground activities such as this will help inform the development of decision-making and planning tools under PREPARED. USAID/Kenya will invest in a new GCC-AD program that will use vulnerability assessment methodologies to identify priority regions, sectors, or communities for adaptation interventions. As one intervention example, the program may address increased risk of drought. USAID/Uganda USAID/Uganda is supporting national government institutions, including the Meteorological Department, the national Climate Change Unit, as well as local governments…. improving district-level capacity to mitigate climate change effects, and rehabilitating weather stations to track and record weather data. <- GeoWRSI? USAID/Uganda will use GCC-AD funds to support the development of a climate change vulnerability assessment for the agriculture sector to better understand current and future climate change impacts and work to effectively respond to these impacts. In addition, USAID is working with national and retail level agricultural input suppliers to disseminate improved and drought-resistant seed varieties. These input suppliers also provide agricultural extension services and will serve as a vector for improved agronomic practices that will help small farmers address the effects of global climate change. USAID/Tanzania To date USAID/Tanzania is investing towards building climate change adaptive capacity and incorporating climate change adaptation measures into the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor of Tanzania. USAID is investing in national institutions responsible for climate change in Tanzania to help enhance awareness and find alternative solutions to address climate change and promote adaptation strategies. The program will improve local capacity to implement climate change regulations and guidelines.

  10. WamiRuvu Basin USAID/Tanzania is investing $700,000 to work within the WamiRuvu Basin to identify adaptation strategies and to work with communities to improve climate resilience. These strategies will be incorporated into the Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor, a public-private partnership to improve agricultural productivity in the region.

  11. USAID/Washington African Regional Climate Change Program (ARCC) USAID’s ARCC program is a three-year program designed to provide technical, analytical, and project assistance, as well as providing capacity building to improve resilience to climate change and safeguard economic growth. It includes developing analytic, fact-based vulnerability assessment methodologies to identify the most vulnerable economic sectors, regions, or communities, as well as a developing a methodology specific to the agricultural and food security sector. The program will also concentrate on improved analytic methods to evaluate potential adaptive strategies, better understand how climate change exacerbates conflict, and better address governance aspects of adaptation to climate change. Lastly, it will address improved understanding and use of scientific information, including working with universities and government meteorological services to improve weather and climate data management and the use of predictions. Sustainable Water and Sanitation in Africa (SUSWASA) Initiative SUWASA is a USAID regional initiative, implemented by Tetra Tech ARD, with a mission of fostering the transformation of water and sanitation delivery services in Africa to achieve long-term financial sustainability through the application of market-based principles. SUWASA is managed by USAID’s Bureau of Economic Growth, Agriculture, and Trade and is designed to spread effective models of reform at the water utility and sector levels, and to facilitate innovative financing approaches for African water providers.

  12. Spatial Pattern and Development Impacts arise through the spatial intersection of change and mean climate High rainfall areas – ‘climatically secure’ Medium/low rainfall areas – more vulnerable Temperature impacts elevation dependent: lower cropping areas more vulnerable higher coffee growing areas at risk

  13. CHG Data Products High resolution (0.05°) climatologies of: mean rainfall and air temperature recent trends in rainfall and air temperatures Gridded 0.05° rainfall time series - monthly station + mean climatology (1920-2011) - pentadal station + satellite rainfall (1981-2011) Gridded 0.05° temperature time series - monthly station + mean climatology (1920-2011) - station density sparse

  14. Identifying opportunities for increasing Kenyan yields-1 Frank Davenport

  15. Identifying opportunities for increasing Kenyan yields-2 Relatively low yields, given climatelow climate variability protects investments? Frank Davenport

  16. Potential MSU FSG/Tegemeo collaboration • Use district level yield and rainfall data to target underutilized high potential areas and vulnerable cropping regions • Perform local analysis using Tegemeo panel data on crop statistics • Work with partner agency (USAID/Kenya?) to conduct small pilot with two small adaptation efforts targeted to the high potential and vulnerable cropping regions

  17. Supporting agricultural development makes economic sense? • In FY11 the USG humanitarian aid to the Horn was >$604 million • In 2009/2010 a 5 million dollar Worldbank project in Kenya led to increased production of ~41,000 tons • Seed and fertilizer vouchers for 50,000 people • $122 per ton of maize • Based on these numbers, increasing 2011 production by 20% (472,800 tons) might cost around ~$58 million dollars • Theoretical percent hungry would drop by ~45% • In FY2011 the US+WFP contributed ~141 million dollars in aid to Kenya, supplying 118,820 tons in aid. • Cost = $1,187 per ton

  18. Yield & MDG % Undernourishment Analysis provided by Frank Davenport A modestimprovement in yields could dramatically reduce the theoretical percentundernourished Food is strength, and food is peace, and food is freedom Senator John. F. Kennedy, 1960

  19. Questions? • How do we partner with existing agencies to increase our ‘on the ground’ presence. • Does PREPARED really target climate change adaptation, or climate variability? Does it matter? • Can our decision support help identify opportunity, as well as vulnerability?

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