Climate Change has affected biological systems already Walther et al. Nature 2002

1. Climate Change has affected biological systems already Walther et al. Nature 2002

2. CCIOB or Climate Change Impacts on Birds • Evidence for impacts – global reviews (you saw one example already) • Funding and organisation of the project • Cooperation • Climate Change Background • Climate Change Scenarios • Main questions • Our approaches • Future

3. Why study Climate Change Impacts in Finland – benefits? • Northern Dimension • Higher proportion of migratory species • More clear definition of migration • Migrants from fewer populations and closer to goal • More borders of distribution areas • Stronger expected impacts • Hence, larger expected effect sizes of responses • Plenty of data for analysis

4. Climate Change Impacts on Birds – funding and staff • Project funded by • Academy of Finland • Maj and Tor Nessling Foundation • Kone Foundation • Period 2001-2004, hopefully longer • Staff • Leader Esa Lehikoinen • Post doc Toni Laaksonen • Postgraduate Kalle Rainio • Postgraduate Markus Ahola • MSc thesis finished Katja Sippola

5. Sources of CC background data weather data and scenarios • publicly available from centers of CC research • http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/HADLEY CENTRE GREAT BRITAIN • http://www.ipcc.ch/INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL FOR CLIMATE CHANGE • http://www.knmi.nl/samenw/eca/htmls/index5.htmlEUROPEAN CLIMATE ASSESSMENT & DATASET (ECA&D) • and nationally: agreement for scientific cooperation withhttp://www.fmi.fi FINNISH METEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE • For public information concerning Climate and its change, look at: • http://www.ilmasto.org/index.htm

6. Bird data

7. Cooperation • National • Hanko and Jurmo bird stations • Anssi Vähätalo, Aleksi Lehikoinen • Natural History Musem of Helsinki University • Risto A. Väisänen, Juhani Terhivuo, Jari Valkama • Finnish Meteorological Institute • International • Institut für Vogelforschung - Vogelwarte Helgoland/Institute of Avian Research, Germany • Franz Bairlein, Ommo Hüppop • Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH)/Institute for Terrestrial Ecology (ITE), Great Britain • Tim Sparks • and others (Lithuania, France, Denmark)

8. Main questions • Confirmation of impacts already connected with Climate Change • quality assurance of data • validity of methods and realism of models used • quantification of changes (degree of response/year, degree of response/°C) • What is the relative role of CC in... • timing changes of the phases of the annual cycle • changes of numbers • changes of distributions • Which other factors contribute • habitat change, other human impacts • How impacts on different traits are intercorrelated • correlations between changes of different events of the annual cycle • indirect impacts on fitness traits: mismatches • community reorganisation • Making predictive models

9. Climate Background • Global Climate System • Oscillations: El Niño (ENSO), AO, NAO, PDO • Climate Change: • including the idea that present day climate is changing due to human impact on Global Climate System • very long term oscillations (Ice Age ”cycles”)

10. North Atlantic Oscillation –NAO index • calculated from the pressure difference between Iceland low and Azorean high (PC I from values of several meteorological stations) • available back to 1821 • high values – warm and rainy winters in W Europe

11. Temperature variation North of 60 °N

12. winter spring summer autumn Fennoscandia 1900-45 1945-65 1966-2001 Spatial, periodical andseasonal variability of CC

13. 60-90 °N global Predictions of five models of future change in Ta

14. Impacts on birds • Changes of • arrival time of migrants ***strong evidence • departure time of migrants *weak evidence • of breeding time ** medium evidence • of breeding performance *weak evidence • mismatch of food availability and breeding *weak evidence • overwinter survival in sedentary species *weak evidence • numbers (increase/decrease) *weak evidence • distributions: northern and/or southern borders *weak evidence

15. Our project’s recent activities • Congresses and workshops: • Freising 2000 International Phenology Network • before start of the project • Cambridge 2002 IPN Impacts on Birds, specialist workshop • Konstanz 2003 ESF BIRD workshop on Climate Change Impacts • Chemnitz 2003 EOU meeting, session on climate change impacts on birds

16. Project’s recent activities: publications/manuscripts/drafts… • Lehikoinen, E., Sparks, T.H. and Zalakevicius, M. (in press): Arrival and departure dates In: Møller, A.P., Fiedler, W. & Berthold, P. The Effect of Climatic Change on Birds. Advances in Ecological Research. Academic Press. A Review • Anssi V. Vähätalo, Kalle Rainio, Aleksi Lehikoinen and Esa Lehikoinen (in press)Spring arrival of birds depends on the North Atlantic Oscillation. – Journal of Avian Biology 34: 000-000. • Rainio, K., Lehikoinen, A., Vähätalo, A. and Lehikoinen, E. () – “Second NAO paper” (untitled) – to be submitted in November-December 2003 • Markus Ahola, Toni Laaksonen, Katja Sippola, Tapio Eeva and Esa Lehikoinen () Spring phenology of a long-distance migrant bird is driven by spatio-temporally varying climate trends (about to be submitted) • Rainio, K., Lehikoinen, E., Terhivuo, J. ()Comparison of responses of birds to temperature and NAO during different warming and cooling periods (about to be submitted). • T.H. Sparks, F. Bairlein, J. Bojarinova, O. Hüppop, E. Lehikoinen, K. Rainio, L.V. Sokolov & D. Walker ():Examining the total arrival distribution of migratory birds (about to be submitted?) • Laaksonen, T., Ahola, M., Eeva, T. and Lehikoinen, E ()Long term changes of breeding success in a long-distance migrant. • = short talks by Kalle and Markus in this seminar • = a couple of next slides

17. Lehikoinen, E., Sparks, T. and Zalakevicius, M.(in press):In: Møller, A.P., Fiedler, W. & Berthold, P. The Effect of Climatic Change on Birds. Advances in Ecological Research. Academic Press Arrival and departure dates

18. Variable Definition Problems Benefits First arrival/departure First individual observed in spring/autumn (of transient/passage migrants) Large random variance Atypical behaviour Data quality tests mostly lacking Easy to observe, cheap, volume of data Median arrival/departure The middle individual arriving in/departing from a closely followed breeding population Difficult, labour-intensive, requires special study Closest to fitness consequences Mean arrival/departure Average arrival/departure date of all birds followed As above, but not as easy, because of complex arrival distributions Close to fitness consequences Median/Mean migration time The middle or average date of migration in an intensively studied migration flow Unknown mixture of passing populations, difficult statistical distributions, problems with mixing breeding populations Is done in bird stations in standard ways, plenty of data available Timing of migration – what to measure?

19. Some possible biases: minor and major • minor technical biases (in relation to effect sizes and data resolution) • Calendar effects: leap years vs ordinary years after 29 February, diff. of one day • Vernal Equinox is cycling c.0.8 or 1.5 days/100 years in 400 year cycles (Nature 414:600, 2001) • the next ones can be major observational biases • Bird station seasons have fixed starts and ends • Missing observation days are incorrectly or not at all treated • Observer activity is weather dependent • biological covariates (originate from bird behaviour) • Population size affects timing records • Changes from migrant to resident strategy complicate analysis

20. Questions concerning independent variables and approaches • Data selection and preparation • Local weather, or weather along the migratory route, spatio-temporal fit • NAO: winter-NAO, other NAO’s • Weather periods used in analyses • Principles of selecting time periods for analysis • Target species selection • Analyses • Linear regression vs. non-parametric LO(W)ESS vs. time-series • Autocorrelation problems • Lots of other tricky statistical things

21. Temperature has always affected arrival of birds – Leche’s Data 1749-1763

22. Meta-analysis of arrival responses

23. Dependence of departure dates on temperature are less well understood and more variable

24. Variation of moult start – Willow Warbler • Sexed individuals, n=845, RSQ = 34.8% • Source DF Type IV SS F Value Pr > F • YEAR 29* 7840.7403656 4.62 0.0001 • AREA 1* 854.2635848 14.59 0.0001 • YEAR*AREA 10* 1183.0473934 2.02 0.0288 • SEX 1* 1991.9488772 34.02 0.0001 • YEAR*SEX 25* 2407.4581812 1.64 0.0250 • AREA*SEX 1* 143.2869043 2.45 0.1182 • YEAR*AREA*SEX 7 329.3295331 0.80 0.5846

25. y = 0.4135x + 32.966 = 0.1526 R 50 48 2 46 44 42 Start of moult (1.6= day 1) 40 38 36 34 32 30 10 15 20 25 30 Arrival day in May Willow Warbler – annual cycle intercorrelations Moult is delayed if arrival is delayed, but differently in males and females

26. Long term change of clutch size

27. Future within our lab / university? • Cooperation between groups studying (also) impacts of Climate Change • Regular seminars on the topic • Article reviews • Regular reports of current status in each separate project • Cooperation in handling background data and predictive models • Impacts of CC on trophic interactions and community structure