Forecasting
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Forecasting. MBA/510. Objectives. Describe the use of time series analysis and forecasting in making business decisions Apply time series analysis and forecasting. Much like Forecasting Weather. Persistence Method today equals tomorrow. Trends and other methods. Climatology Analogue

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Forecasting

Forecasting

MBA/510


Objectives

Objectives

  • Describe the use of time series analysis and forecasting in making business decisions

  • Apply time series analysis and forecasting


Much like forecasting weather

Much like Forecasting Weather

Persistence Method

  • today equals tomorrow


Trends and other methods

Trends and other methods

  • Climatology

  • Analogue

  • Numerical

    weather

    prediction


Much like forecasting

Much like forecasting …

Average Absorption Time

40

34.6

30

Seconds

20

5.8

10

3.6

0

267

576

1562

Droplet size (microns)

(Hours)


What we now expect

AGENT

SURFACE

LIQUID HAZARD

VAPOR HAZARD (BEST CASE)

VAPOR HAZARD

(WORST CASE)

A

CONCRETE OR ASPHALT

8-50 MIN

50 MIN

4 HOURS

GRASS OR SAND

8 MIN- 3 HOURS

25 MIN

3 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

12 MIN – 4 HOURS

4 HOURS

10 HOURS

B

CONCRETE OR ASPHALT

8-50 MIN

25 MIN

5 HOURS

GRASS OR SAND

8 MIN- 3 HOURS

25 MIN

4 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

12 MIN – 5 HOURS

5 HOURS

16 HOURS

C

CONCRETE OR ASPHALT

8-50 MIN

50 MIN

7 HOURS

GRASS OR SAND

8 MIN- 3 HOURS

7 HOURS

8 HOURS

NON-POROUS MATERIALS

12 MIN – 4 HOURS

7 HOURS

20 HOURS

What we Now Expect

  • Technical Review

    • 40 Concrete and Asphalt

    • 120 Painted Surfaces

    • 55 Grass

    • 10 Thickened Agent

  • Recent live agent surface tests

    • D****Test (1998 - 1999)

    • C**** Tests (1999)

    • N**** Test (1999)


What about business forecasting

What about Business forecasting?


Heban lumber mill exercise 19 1

Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

  • Plot the data on a chart.

  • Estimate the linear trend equation by drawing a line through the data.

  • Estimate the earnings per share for 2004.

Earnings in dollars


Heban lumber mill exercise 19 11

Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

Sales went up $2.67 – $1.56, or $1.11 in 4 years

(2001 –1997). Thus ($1.11 ÷ 4) = $0.2775 or $0.30

Y′=1.00+0.30t

Y′= a + bt

Y′= 1.00 + bt


Heban lumber mill exercise 19 12

Heban Lumber Mill (exercise 19.1)

The estimated earnings for 2004 are

$3.10


Norton company exercise 19 3

Norton Company (Exercise 19.3)

The quarterly sales for the Norton Company are given in millions of dollars for four years. Compute the quarterly seasonal index using the ratio-to-moving-average method.

Full Table


Norton company exercise 19 31

Norton Company (Exercise 19.3)

Full Table


Summary of mba 510

Summary of MBA/510

  • Secondary and primary research

  • Tools of data analysis

  • Levels of measurement

  • Sampling size & methods

  • Descriptive data & Probability

  • Normal distribution

  • Confidence intervals

  • Hypothesis & Testing Variables

  • ANOVA & F-distribution

  • Linear regression & Correlation analysis

  • Time series analysis & Forecasting


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