2011 Census Do they change our view of the Greater Manchester economy? . Miriam Ferrari Senior Economist firstname.lastname@example.org 02892528614. 16 th August 2012. Contents . Introduction Executive summary At a glance – 59,000 extra people Migration and jobs – a surprise?
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2011 CensusDo they change our view of the Greater Manchester economy?
16th August 2012
At a glance – 59,000 extra people
Difference between Census day and revised rolled-forward population estimates, England & Wales (millions)
Source: Census, ONS
Difference between Census day and revised rolled-forward population estimates, Greater Manchester (000’s)
Source: Census, ONS
Migration and jobs – a surprise?
High net migration despite job losses
Low R Squared – weak correlation
Long-Term International Migration into the United Kingdom. YE Dec 01 to YE Sep 11:
Immigration by main reason for migration
No. of students increasing
Immigration for work reasons – fallen during recession
Long-Term International Migration into and out of the United Kingdom. YE Dec 01 to YE Sep 11 – all citizenships
Immigration remains strong despite the recession
emigration peaked at the height of the boom and has fallen ever since
Emigration also starting to fall
Manchester: Comparison of population by age band for rolled-forward estimates and 2011 Census
Implies migrants are staying and having families
Back in 2006 - ‘no’ migration firmly fixed in policy
Indicative scenario – accounting for higher migration, against baseline and ONS 2010 projections
now form an
Source: ONS, Oxford Economics
Indicative economic implications of population scenarios
Significant economic impacts if assume employment rates remain the same
Source: Oxford Economics
GMFM – next steps
Difference between Census day, revised rolled-forward population estimates and GMFM population estimates for 2011, Greater Manchester (000’s)