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2013 - The Year Ahead In Mobile

2013 - The Year Ahead In Mobile. Alex Cocotas Research Analyst, Business Insider Intelligence. Now that the year-end 2012 data is in, where’s the mobile i ndustry h eaded t his year?. First, some context. As of year-end 2012: 2.5+ billion people online. ~35% of global population.

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2013 - The Year Ahead In Mobile

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  1. 2013 - The Year Ahead In Mobile Alex Cocotas Research Analyst, Business Insider Intelligence

  2. Now that the year-end 2012 data is in, where’s the mobile industry headed this year?

  3. First, some context

  4. As of year-end 2012: 2.5+ billion people online

  5. ~35% of global population

  6. Mobile is already 1/7 of global Internet traffic and growing its share quickly

  7. Mobile now accounts for 15% of global Internet traffic

  8. Mobile on pace to top 25% of traffic by year-end 2013

  9. Device sales are pushing people onto the mobile Internet

  10. Smartphone growth continued, while PC shipments actually declined last year

  11. And the disparity will only grow We are here

  12. Tablets are poised to take a huge leap this year

  13. U.S. tablet penetration now ~25%, so plenty of room to grow

  14. But … unlike smartphones, tablet sales aren’t usually subsidized by carriers

  15. That’s why current owners tend to be moneyed

  16. And a bit older …

  17. Thankfully, tablets and mini-tablets are getting cheaper … Even Apple is price-cutting

  18. Lower prices will help tablet sales skyrocket We are here

  19. And tablet sales are just getting started globally

  20. In 2013, the mobile growth story will shift to the developing world

  21. Mobile is driving Internet penetration in China

  22. (Which stands at 42 percent)

  23. It is now the world’s largest smartphone market

  24. Android is winning China’s platform race

  25. Which is bad news for Apple

  26. Because the next wave of adoption will come from countries like China

  27. Large populations, low penetration … but less money

  28. And iPhones aren’t getting any cheaper

  29. Which is what is driving this…

  30. The shift to low-end emerging markets is crucial because …

  31. Technology adoption growth slows after hitting the 50% penetration tipping point

  32. Because under-penetrated segments are older and less wealthy

  33. Even though it may look like upside is still huge for phone manufacturers

  34. The U.S. has already reached that point

  35. So have the largest European markets

  36. And penetration will slow as a result

  37. But globally, it’s still early days

  38. In the developed world, the focus will be on monetizing users

  39. Over 50% of U.S. mobile consumers have downloaded apps, browsed mobile Web

  40. For now, U.S. mobile audiences are still growing

  41. Even among the largest mobile categories

  42. Mobile consumers glued to games, entertainment, and social networks Source: Flurry, November 2012

  43. In 2013, we’ll top 1 million apps on Android and iOS

  44. Downloads continue to grow frantically

  45. And time spent in apps continues to skyrocket

  46. Mobile gaming population has reached ~35%

  47. (Games suck up the most user time) Source: Flurry, November 2012

  48. (And are the biggest money makers)

  49. But, games aside, there’s a problem with the whole mobile story … where’s the money?

  50. Mobile app revenues are smaller than you think

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