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Cooperation and synergy in ocean studies between GCR, BCCR and MSC. Helge Drange G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, NERSC. Outline. Bjerknes Centre G. C. Rieber Climate Institute GCR/BCCR  MSC MSC  GCR/BCCR. University of Bergen Geophysical Institute Dept. of Earth Science

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Helge Drange G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, NERSC

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Cooperation and synergy in ocean studies between GCR, BCCR and MSC

Helge Drange

G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, NERSC


Outline

  • Bjerknes Centre

  • G. C. Rieber Climate Institute

  • GCR/BCCR  MSC

  • MSC  GCR/BCCR


  • University of Bergen

  • Geophysical Institute

  • Dept. of Earth Science

  • Dept. of Geography

  • Dept. of Botany

Nansen Environmental

and

Remote Sensing Center

Institute of

Marine Research

The Bjerknes Collaboration

1999-2000


2002-10

  • University of Bergen

  • Geophysical Institute

  • Dept. of Earth Science

  • Dept. of Geography

  • Dept. of Botany

Nansen Environmental

and

Remote Sensing Center

Institute of

Marine Research

The Bjerknes Collaboration

2002

1999-2000


Research Infrastructure

  • Climate time series

  • Climate modelling & supercomputing facilities

  • Ocean research vessels

  • Laboratories/measurement systems

  • Alpine research station

  • Expertise

    • Physical oceanography

    • Chemical oceanography

    • Paleoclimatology

    • Global/regional climate modelling

  • Interdisciplinary

    • Bridging paleo and instrumental observations, theory and modelling of the coupled physical and geochemical climate system

Resources

  • Staff

  • (Person-years)

  • 70in science

  • 10 in technical support

  • 4 in administration

  • By far the largest climate research group in Norway


Research Infrastructure

  • Climate time series

  • Climate modelling & supercomputing facilities

  • Ocean research vessels

  • Laboratories/measurement systems

  • Alpine research station

  • Expertise

    • Physical oceanography

    • Chemical oceanography

    • Paleoclimatology

    • Global/regional climate modelling

  • Interdisciplinary

    • Bridging paleo and instrumental observations, theory and modelling of the coupled physical and geochemical climate system

Resources

  • Staff

  • (Person-years)

  • 70in science

  • 10 in technical support

  • 4 in administration

  • By far the largest climate research group in Norway


Core activities at GCR Climate Institute and BCCR

  • Past, present and future climate modelling

  • Coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean system (Bergen Climate Model)

  • Atmosphere and ocean only systems (ARPEGE and MICOM, respectively)

  • Mainly global scale modelling

  • Some regional scale modelling, and then with lateral boundary conditions provided by the global system


Climate modelling – academic exercise or (approaching) reality?

Basic climate research  Climate impact studies

Where does the MSC enter the scene?


0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10°C

Sea surface temperature from satellite, May

Greenland

Norway

Orvik and Niiler, GRL, 2002


Iceland

Norway

UK

Ocean colour (SeaWifs), July 2004


The Miami Isopycnic Coordinate Ocean Model

  • Dynamic-thermodynamic sea ice modules included

  • Reference pressure at the surface

  • 24 model layers with potential density ranging from 23.54 to 28.10

  • Stretched grids with focus in the North Atlantic-Arctic region (Bentsen et al., Mon. Wea. Rev.,1999)

  • Daily atmospheric forcing, using

  • NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data

  • (Kalnay et al., 1996)

  • • No explicit use of in situ

  • observations

  • Period 1948 to present

  • Integrations conducted:

  • - 80/40/20 km resolution

  • - with CFC-11, CFC-12,

  • 137Cs and SF6


Simulated and observed mean transports (Sv)

Nilsen et al., GRL (2003), Nilsen et al., in prog.

PassageDirModObsReferences

DS N0.51.0Hansen & Østerhus (2000)

S4.34.3HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)

PassageDirModObsReferences

DS N0.51.0Hansen & Østerhus (2000)

S4.34.3HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)

IFR Net2.22.3HØ (2000)

PassageDirModObsReferences

DS N0.51.0Hansen & Østerhus (2000)

S4.34.3HØ (2000), Fissel et al. (1988)

IFR Net2.22.3HØ (2000)

FSC N4.34.4Orvik & Skagseth (2003)

S2.22.6HØ (2000), Turrel et al. (1988), Østerhus et al. (1999), Ellett (1998)


Observations (seasonal cycle and averages removed)

Model

Model

Temperature

Salinity

Rockall Through temp (0-800 m)

Hátun/Sandø (2004)


vs. simulated

Gao et al., in prep. (2004)

Observed variability

Orvik and Skagseth, GRL (2004)

Observed transport

7 days low pass

Transports along Norwegian continental slope =Inflow through FSC


Changing potential energy difference between the extratopical, A and subpolar gyre B (Curry and McCartney, 2001)

Changes in the average curlzt, (Orvik and Skagseth, 2003)

*B

curlzt=0, i.e.vanishing Sverdrup transport

Discontinuous latitude of the North Atlantic Current (Bower et al., 2002)

*A

Upstream effects on the northward flowing Atlantic water


Conceptual scheme

curlzt>0

1.

Norw. Sea

Atlantic

2. As this baroclinic currentencounters the European continental slope, a conversion to a barotropic slope current, the NwASC, takes place

Orvik and Skagseth, GRL (2003)


Release point

Transport & dispersion of 137Cs from the Sellafield reprocessing plant

137Cs ObservationKershaw & Baxter (1995)

Gao et al. (2004)


Observed and simulated concentration of 137Cs in the Barents Sea

5 yr

Solid line Simulated atm. fallout + Sellafield 137Cs

Dotted line Simulated atm. fallout of 137Cs

Circles Observed 137Cs

Gao et al. (2004)

Obs: Kershaw og Baxter (1995)


Observed and simulated 0-250 m temperature in the Barents Sea (Kola Section)

Red line Observed T

Black line Simulated T

Gao and Drange, in prep. (2004)


Climate modelling – academic exercise or (approaching) reality?

Approaching reality!

 Unexploited potential for bridging ocean climate observations and models to describe and to understand observed fluctuations in the marine climate system

 Next step is to use data assimilation systems to further improve the simulations; global boundary conditions are available; dynamic interpretation of observed and simulated anomalies are emerging


What will the climate of Europe be like in 2020?

Greenland

  • Coupled climate models suggest the answer may be quite sensitive to the present state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

  • More research needed to

  • Better observe the Atlantic MOC

  • Better understand how current state of the Atlantic MOC constrain its future evolution


The importance of decadal climate prediction

Greenland

  • ‘Forecasting’ of climate change has focused on time horizons of 50-100 years

  • The longest time horizon considered in strategic planning are generally much shorter: 1-30 years


From Predicate (EC FP5)

The evolution of the strength of the Atlantic MOC is relatively stable to perturbations to the system

Collins et al. (2004)


From Predicate (EC FP5)

 In general positive coefficient of regression (K per Sv) over northern Northern Hemisphere

Collins et al. (2004)


From Predicate (EC FP5)

 Proper 3-D ocean initial state is needed for properly addressing decadal scale climate prediction

Collins et al. (2004)


Great potential for collaboration and interaction between G. C. Rieber Climate Institute, the Bjerknes Centre and the Mohn-Sverdrup Centre


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