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Estimating Task Durations

Estimating Task Durations. Methodologies and Psychology of Estimating. Project Schedules and Estimates. Accuracy at the task level translates up to the accuracy at the project level Consistency is key. Estimating the unknown. How long does it take to catch a fish? Might be right away

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Estimating Task Durations

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  1. Estimating Task Durations Methodologies and Psychology of Estimating

  2. Project Schedules and Estimates • Accuracy at the task level translates up to the accuracy at the project level • Consistency is key

  3. Estimating the unknown • How long does it take to catch a fish? • Might be right away • Might be never • Might be anything in between

  4. Estimating the unknown • Apply metrics to the madness • What is ‘most likely’ to happen?

  5. Estimating the unknown • What are the required ‘tools’ to complete the task? • Do we need to acquire the tools before attempting the task?

  6. Estimating the unknown • Multiple tasks create an accumulation of guesses • ‘Buffers’ 5+5=13

  7. So what do we do? • Buffers are not secrets • Everyone knows durations are buffered

  8. What Does the Task Duration Really Represent? • Discussion

  9. Here are several approaches to estimating task durations: • Elapsed Time vs. Working Time • Task Time vs. Resource Time • Interface Losses & Delays • Theoretical Duration vs. Experience

  10. Elapsed Time vs. Working Time • We don’t work ALL the time

  11. Task Time vs. Resource Time • The number of people involved affects the elapsed time

  12. Interface Losses & Delays • How do we represent these spans of time to accommodate ‘buffers’ / ‘losses’?

  13. Theoretical Duration vs. Experience • What I know SHOULD happenvs.What I know Will happen

  14. Here are a few traps to note:

  15. Traps: Math • Improper use of averaging

  16. Trap: Skill Levels, Learning Curves & Priorities • Know your people • Know your priorities

  17. Task Duration EstimationPERT Method • (a + 4b + c) / 6

  18. PERT Method • Document the estimation process

  19. Delphi Method • WAG and SWAG

  20. The Psychology of Task Durations • 10 days to do 5 days of work. Why?

  21. The Psychology of Task Durations • Work seems to expand if we have time for it

  22. The Psychology of Task Durations • Do it tomorrow

  23. The Psychology of Task Durations • Padding – we can’t seem to win either way

  24. The Psychology of Task Durations • It seems for many it is natural to keep working until we are out of time or late

  25. Practical Time Estimating • We must pad or buffer • We must be realistic • Where’s the balance?

  26. Practical Time Estimating • There are methods that are tried and true

  27. Practical Time Estimating • Technique Example 1

  28. Practical Time Estimating • Technique Example 2

  29. Practical Time Estimating • Technique Example 3

  30. Practical Time Estimating • Technique Example 4

  31. Develop consistency in estimating • Follow standards

  32. Key factors in achieving project success • Know your objectives and these will drive your approach to Task Duration Estimations

  33. Estimating Task Durations • Standards • Documentation • Communication

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