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The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. The National Association of Business Political Action Committees 2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE. 2012 Election Overview. 2012 Election Overview. PRESENTED BY: Hans Kaiser

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2012 election overview

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE

The National Association of Business Political Action Committees2012 NABPAC POST-ELECTION CONFERENCE

2012 Election Overview

2012 Election Overview

PRESENTED BY:

Hans Kaiser

November 16, 2012


State by state voting
State by State Voting Committees

2012

= Obama

Electoral Votes

2008

Obama 365

McCain 173

2012

Obama 332

Romney 206

= Romney

Popular Vote

2008

Obama 69,456,897 (+ 9.5 million)

McCain 59,934,814

2012

Obama 62,615,406 (+ 3.5 million)

Romney 59,142,004

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Our 2010 nabpac presentation
Our 2010 NABPAC Presentation Committees

265 Electoral Votes

New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)

Florida (29 electoral votes)

Ohio (18 electoral votes)

North Carolina (15 electoral votes)

Virginia (13 electoral votes)

Indiana (11 electoral votes)

GOP nominee sits at:

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


What Happened Committees

205 Electoral Votes

New 2012 Republican Total (179 electoral votes)

Romney Net

Florida (29 electoral votes) - 0.9

Ohio (18 electoral votes) -1.9

North Carolina (15 electoral votes) +2.2

Virginia (13 electoral votes) -3.0

Indiana (11 electoral votes) +10.5

GOP nominee sits at:

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Swing states real clear politics polling averages vs actual results
Swing States: CommitteesReal Clear Politics – Polling Averages vs. Actual Results

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


What If … ? Committees

Total 267 Electoral Votes

In each swing state the average Obama bump of 2.6% went toward Romney; Romney would have won:

Colorado

Florida

Iowa

New Hampshire

Virginia

61 Electoral Votes

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


And What If … ? Committees

Total 289 Electoral Votes

Each state swung toward Romney by the average Obama bump in that particular state, Romney would have won those states:

Colorado 9

Florida 29

Iowa 6

Michigan 16

Nevada 6

New Hampshire 4

Virginia 13

83 Electoral Votes

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Presidential vote by party id
Presidential Vote by Party ID Committees

2012

2008

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Presidential vote by ethnicity
Presidential Vote by Ethnicity Committees

2012

2008

+4

-8

+8

+15

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Presidential vote by gender white
Presidential Vote by Gender/White Committees

2012

2008

+11

+7

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Presidential vote by gender black
Presidential Vote by Gender/Black Committees

2012

2008

+14

+0

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Presidential vote by gender latino
Presidential Vote by Gender/Latino Committees

2012

2008

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Presidential vote by area of residence
Presidential Vote by Area of Residence Committees

2012

2008

+2

+4

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Presidential voting by 2011 total family income
Presidential Voting by 2011 Total Family Income Committees

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


50k was the dividing line
$50K was the Dividing Line Committees

2011 Total Family Income

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Most important issue
Most Important Issue Committees

  • Obama won health care and foreign policy voters.

  • Romney won deficit voters.

  • Economy voters were divided. Romney needed to win

  • these voters to win the election.

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Condition of economy
Condition of Economy Committees

Do you think the condition of the nation’s economy is:

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Family financial situation
Family Financial Situation Committees

Compared to four years ago, is your family’s financial situation:

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Blame for economy it s bush s fault
Blame for Economy? CommitteesIt’s Bush’s Fault

Who is more to blame for current economic problems, Barack Obama or George W. Bush?

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Biggest economic problem
Biggest Economic Problem Committees

Which ONE of these four is the biggest economic problem facing people like you?

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Candidate qualities
Candidate Qualities Committees

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Obama cares about people
Obama Cares about People Committees

Which ONE of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for President?

-Shares my values -Is a strong leader -Cares about people like me -Has a vision for the future

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Obama is more in touch
Obama is More in Touch Committees

Who is more in touch with people like you?

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Candidate policies
Candidate Policies Committees

Do Barack Obama’s/Mitt Romney’s policies generally favor:

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Vote for president
Vote for President Committees

Which best describes your vote for president today?

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


W hat s ahead
W Committeeshat’s Ahead?

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


What s ahead
What’s Ahead? Committees

Party ID

Philosophy

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Income taxes
Income Taxes Committees

Should income tax rates:

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Taxes and the deficit
Taxes and the Deficit Committees

Should taxes be raised to help cut the budget deficit?

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Illegal immigrants
Illegal Immigrants Committees

Should most illegal immigrants working in the United State be:

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Shift in make up of electorate s white voters in key states
Shift in Make-Up of Electorate’s White Voters in Key States

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Same sex marriage
Same-Sex Marriage States

Should your state legally recognize same-sex marriage?

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Gop vote
GOP Vote States

Network News Exit Polls

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


Contact information
Contact Information States

www.moore-info.com

Bob Moore, [email protected]

Hans Kaiser, [email protected]

www.facebook.com/mooreinformation

34

THE NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BUSINESS POLITICAL ACTION COMMITTEES


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