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3° ICTP Workshop on “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 2006. Marco Verdecchia. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9. CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it.

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3° ICTP Workshop on

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9 2006

Marco Verdecchia

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila

http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Developed by:

Since 2002

  • It runs in any geographical domain with any resolution

  • It runs in any (?) unix platforms

  • It does not use any licensed software

  • Different kind of rain data are assimilated


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Two reasons for NOT using CHYM:

  • NOT easy to use

  • (CHyM is a NSE2USE Model)

  • Documentation is not (yet) available


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Outline

  • Description of the model

  • Algorithms

  • Generating streamflow network

  • Building prec. fields with diff. data

  • Physical processes

  • Applications


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

  • Why to develop a new Hydrological Model?

  • It has been thought for operational

  • purposes

  • It is a good “exercise”


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Step 1: generating streamflow network from DEM

DEM matrix for the selected domain and resolution is generated

Flow direction matrix is computed

Validation

“Pits” and singularities are corrected


For each cell the slope is computed as:

Max slope

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Runoff direction

DEM is available with a

resolution of 300 m


CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

A Cellular Automata definition

  • A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamical system

  • Space, time and states of the system are discrete quantities

  • Each point in a regular spatial lattice, called a cell, can have anyone of a finite number of states

  • The state of the cells in the lattice are updated according to a local rule

  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

A Cellular Automata application

Life rules by Chris G. Langton

  • The status of each CA can be ON or OFF

  • If more than 3 CA in the neighborhood are ON CA became OFF

  • If less than 2 CA in the neighborhood are ON, CA became OFF

  • Otherwise CA became ON


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CA for CHyM applications

  • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata

  • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a

CHyM matrix (DEM)

  • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule

  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously

  • Update ends when flow scheme is OK


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Recipe for DEM pit correction

  • Smooth DEM using CA rules until FD can be

  • obtained for all the cells

  • Generate streamflow network using smoothed DEM

  • Use “true” DEM and modify ONLY the cells draining

  • toward an higher cell


CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


CHyM: Examples of

Drainage Network Extraction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)

  • Startingfrom each cell a stone rolls up to the

  • river‘s mouth

2. Each time that the stone goes through one cell for

this cell a counter is incremented by 1

3. If a quantity A is associated to each stone where A

is equivalent to the surface where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the

upstream drained surface

4. If a quantity R is associated to each stone where R

is equivalent to the precipitation where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the

upstream drained precipitation


3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)


Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources

Radar

Gauge data

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

time

Museo

Archive

MM5 analysis

MM5 Forecast

Satellite

estimations

Now


CHyM rain data sources: Gauge measurements Sources

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM rain data sources: Radar estimates


CHyM rain data sources: NERETIR Sources

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

NERETIR

NEural

Rainfall

Estimation

from

Termal

InfraRed


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM rain data sources: MM5

MM5 Meteorological Model


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources

Module 1

  • Define subdomain

  • Fill cells corresponding to rain gauges

  • Fill subdomain matrix – Cr. Formula

  • Smooth subdomain matrix using CA

  • algorithm

Module 2

Module 3

Module n


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CA for CHyM applications

  • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata

  • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix

(RAIN)

(DEM)

  • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule

But cells corresponding to rain gauges or defined in a previous

Module are not updated

  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously

  • Update ends when flow scheme is OK

  • Update ends when a stable state is reached


r Sourcesij≤ a

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

+ smoothing using

Cellular Automata

Observed rain

using Cressman

algorithm


+ MUSEO module Sources

using Cressman

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

+ CA


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

In sequence …


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM Rain field sources: an example


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

For each cell the simulated processes are:

Runoff

Evapotraspiration

Infiltration

Rainfall


Soil moisture storage Sources

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Infiltration

Surface Runoff

Infiltration

Deep percolation

Interflow


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Evapotraspiration

Thornthwaite Formula (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1995)


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Runoff

Continuity equation

A= cross sectional area of the river

Q= flow rate of water discharge

qc= rain for length unit

Momentum equation

S= slope

1/R= wetter perimeter

n= Manning‘s roughness coefficient


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: A first application

Ri = rain

Ai = drained

surface

AI= Alarm Index


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Soverato Flood

simulation


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Val Canale flood

simulation


CHyM: simulation of Sources

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM


CHyM: simulation of Sources

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM


CHyM: simulation of Sources

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


Landslides prediction using CHyM. Sources

(Very) Preliminary results

  • Daily precipitation from

  • 1958 to 2002

  • Total drained rain in the

  • last N days

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

  • Landslides occur when TDR-N

  • is greater than LT (N and LT

  • values to optimized)


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


CHyM: hydrological effects due to Sources

Alpine Glaciers Melting

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

For further information about the model and related literature please visit the URL:

http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it/chym/


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

THANKS!!


3° ICTP Workshop Sources

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


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