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3° ICTP Workshop on “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 2006. Marco Verdecchia. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9. CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

3° ICTP Workshop on

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9 2006

Marco Verdecchia

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila

http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

slide2

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Developed by:

Since 2002

  • It runs in any geographical domain with any resolution
  • It runs in any (?) unix platforms
  • It does not use any licensed software
  • Different kind of rain data are assimilated
slide3

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Two reasons for NOT using CHYM:

  • NOT easy to use
  • (CHyM is a NSE2USE Model)
  • Documentation is not (yet) available
slide4

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Outline

  • Description of the model
  • Algorithms
  • Generating streamflow network
  • Building prec. fields with diff. data
  • Physical processes
  • Applications
slide5

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

  • Why to develop a new Hydrological Model?
  • It has been thought for operational
  • purposes
  • It is a good “exercise”
slide6

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Step 1: generating streamflow network from DEM

DEM matrix for the selected domain and resolution is generated

Flow direction matrix is computed

Validation

“Pits” and singularities are corrected

slide7

For each cell the slope is computed as:

Max slope

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Runoff direction

DEM is available with a

resolution of 300 m

slide8

CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide9

CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide10

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

A Cellular Automata definition

  • A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamical system
  • Space, time and states of the system are discrete quantities
  • Each point in a regular spatial lattice, called a cell, can have anyone of a finite number of states
  • The state of the cells in the lattice are updated according to a local rule
  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously
slide11

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

A Cellular Automata application

Life rules by Chris G. Langton

  • The status of each CA can be ON or OFF
  • If more than 3 CA in the neighborhood are ON CA became OFF
  • If less than 2 CA in the neighborhood are ON, CA became OFF
  • Otherwise CA became ON
slide12

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CA for CHyM applications

  • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata
  • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a

CHyM matrix (DEM)

  • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule
  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously
  • Update ends when flow scheme is OK
slide13

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Recipe for DEM pit correction

  • Smooth DEM using CA rules until FD can be
  • obtained for all the cells
  • Generate streamflow network using smoothed DEM
  • Use “true” DEM and modify ONLY the cells draining
  • toward an higher cell
slide14

CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide15

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

slide16

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide17

CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide18

CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide19

CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide20

CHyM: Examples of

Drainage Network Extraction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide21

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)

  • Startingfrom each cell a stone rolls up to the
  • river‘s mouth

2. Each time that the stone goes through one cell for

this cell a counter is incremented by 1

3. If a quantity A is associated to each stone where A

is equivalent to the surface where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the

upstream drained surface

4. If a quantity R is associated to each stone where R

is equivalent to the precipitation where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the

upstream drained precipitation

slide22

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)

slide23

Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources

Radar

Gauge data

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

time

Museo

Archive

MM5 analysis

MM5 Forecast

Satellite

estimations

Now

slide24

CHyM rain data sources: Gauge measurements

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide25

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM rain data sources: Radar estimates

slide26

CHyM rain data sources: NERETIR

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

NERETIR

NEural

Rainfall

Estimation

from

Termal

InfraRed

slide27

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM rain data sources: MM5

MM5 Meteorological Model

slide28

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources

Module 1

  • Define subdomain
  • Fill cells corresponding to rain gauges
  • Fill subdomain matrix – Cr. Formula
  • Smooth subdomain matrix using CA
  • algorithm

Module 2

Module 3

Module n

slide29

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CA for CHyM applications

  • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata
  • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix

(RAIN)

(DEM)

  • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule

But cells corresponding to rain gauges or defined in a previous

Module are not updated

  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously
  • Update ends when flow scheme is OK
  • Update ends when a stable state is reached
slide30

rij≤ a

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

+ smoothing using

Cellular Automata

Observed rain

using Cressman

algorithm

slide31

+ MUSEO module

using Cressman

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

+ CA

slide32

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

In sequence …

slide33

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM Rain field sources: an example

slide34

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

For each cell the simulated processes are:

Runoff

Evapotraspiration

Infiltration

Rainfall

slide35

Soil moisture storage

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Infiltration

Surface Runoff

Infiltration

Deep percolation

Interflow

slide36

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Evapotraspiration

Thornthwaite Formula (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1995)

slide37

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Runoff

Continuity equation

A= cross sectional area of the river

Q= flow rate of water discharge

qc= rain for length unit

Momentum equation

S= slope

1/R= wetter perimeter

n= Manning‘s roughness coefficient

slide38

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: A first application

Ri = rain

Ai = drained

surface

AI= Alarm Index

slide39

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide40

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Soverato Flood

simulation

slide41

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Val Canale flood

simulation

slide42

CHyM: simulation of

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM

slide43

CHyM: simulation of

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM

slide44

CHyM: simulation of

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide45

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results

  • Daily precipitation from
  • 1958 to 2002
  • Total drained rain in the
  • last N days

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

  • Landslides occur when TDR-N
  • is greater than LT (N and LT
  • values to optimized)
slide46

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

slide47

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

slide48

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results

slide49

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results

slide50

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results

slide51

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results

slide52

CHyM: hydrological effects due to

Alpine Glaciers Melting

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

slide53

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

For further information about the model and related literature please visit the URL:

http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it/chym/

slide54

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

THANKS!!

slide55

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

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