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3° ICTP Workshop on “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9 2006. Marco Verdecchia. 3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9. CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it.

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3° ICTP Workshop “The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models” May 29 – June 9

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3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop on

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9 2006

Marco Verdecchia

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CETEMPS, Physics Department, University of L‘Aquila

http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Developed by:

Since 2002

  • It runs in any geographical domain with any resolution

  • It runs in any (?) unix platforms

  • It does not use any licensed software

  • Different kind of rain data are assimilated


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Two reasons for NOT using CHYM:

  • NOT easy to use

  • (CHyM is a NSE2USE Model)

  • Documentation is not (yet) available


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Outline

  • Description of the model

  • Algorithms

  • Generating streamflow network

  • Building prec. fields with diff. data

  • Physical processes

  • Applications


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

  • Why to develop a new Hydrological Model?

  • It has been thought for operational

  • purposes

  • It is a good “exercise”


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Step 1: generating streamflow network from DEM

DEM matrix for the selected domain and resolution is generated

Flow direction matrix is computed

Validation

“Pits” and singularities are corrected


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

For each cell the slope is computed as:

Max slope

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Runoff direction

DEM is available with a

resolution of 300 m


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

A Cellular Automata definition

  • A cellular automaton is a discrete dynamical system

  • Space, time and states of the system are discrete quantities

  • Each point in a regular spatial lattice, called a cell, can have anyone of a finite number of states

  • The state of the cells in the lattice are updated according to a local rule

  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

A Cellular Automata application

Life rules by Chris G. Langton

  • The status of each CA can be ON or OFF

  • If more than 3 CA in the neighborhood are ON CA became OFF

  • If less than 2 CA in the neighborhood are ON, CA became OFF

  • Otherwise CA became ON


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CA for CHyM applications

  • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata

  • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a

CHyM matrix (DEM)

  • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule

  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously

  • Update ends when flow scheme is OK


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Recipe for DEM pit correction

  • Smooth DEM using CA rules until FD can be

  • obtained for all the cells

  • Generate streamflow network using smoothed DEM

  • Use “true” DEM and modify ONLY the cells draining

  • toward an higher cell


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: Drainage network test

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: DEM pit correction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: Examples of

Drainage Network Extraction

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)

  • Startingfrom each cell a stone rolls up to the

  • river‘s mouth

2. Each time that the stone goes through one cell for

this cell a counter is incremented by 1

3. If a quantity A is associated to each stone where A

is equivalent to the surface where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the

upstream drained surface

4. If a quantity R is associated to each stone where R

is equivalent to the precipitation where the stone was at the beginning, for each cell it can be computed the

upstream drained precipitation


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: the Rolling Stones Algorithm (RSA)


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources

Radar

Gauge data

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

time

Museo

Archive

MM5 analysis

MM5 Forecast

Satellite

estimations

Now


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM rain data sources: Gauge measurements

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM rain data sources: Radar estimates


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM rain data sources: NERETIR

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

NERETIR

NEural

Rainfall

Estimation

from

Termal

InfraRed


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM rain data sources: MM5

MM5 Meteorological Model


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Step 2: Building Precipitation Fields using different Data Sources

Module 1

  • Define subdomain

  • Fill cells corresponding to rain gauges

  • Fill subdomain matrix – Cr. Formula

  • Smooth subdomain matrix using CA

  • algorithm

Module 2

Module 3

Module n


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CA for CHyM applications

  • CHyM grid is considered an aggregate of cellular automata

  • The status of a cell corresponds to the value of a CHyM matrix

(RAIN)

(DEM)

  • The state of the cells in the lattice is updated according to following rule

But cells corresponding to rain gauges or defined in a previous

Module are not updated

  • All cells on the lattice are updated synchronously

  • Update ends when flow scheme is OK

  • Update ends when a stable state is reached


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

rij≤ a

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

+ smoothing using

Cellular Automata

Observed rain

using Cressman

algorithm


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

+ MUSEO module

using Cressman

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

+ CA


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

In sequence …


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM Rain field sources: an example


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

For each cell the simulated processes are:

Runoff

Evapotraspiration

Infiltration

Rainfall


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

Soil moisture storage

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Infiltration

Surface Runoff

Infiltration

Deep percolation

Interflow


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Evapotraspiration

Thornthwaite Formula (Thornthwaite and Mather, 1995)


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: Runoff

Continuity equation

A= cross sectional area of the river

Q= flow rate of water discharge

qc= rain for length unit

Momentum equation

S= slope

1/R= wetter perimeter

n= Manning‘s roughness coefficient


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: A first application

Ri = rain

Ai = drained

surface

AI= Alarm Index


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Soverato Flood

simulation


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

Val Canale flood

simulation


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: simulation of

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: simulation of

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Flood alert mapping using MM5 and CHyM


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: simulation of

Aug 22-23 2005 event

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results

  • Daily precipitation from

  • 1958 to 2002

  • Total drained rain in the

  • last N days

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

  • Landslides occur when TDR-N

  • is greater than LT (N and LT

  • values to optimized)


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

Landslides prediction using CHyM.

(Very) Preliminary results


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

CHyM: hydrological effects due to

Alpine Glaciers Melting

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

For further information about the model and related literature please visit the URL:

http://cetemps.aquila.infn.it/chym/


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9

CHyM: an operational distributed

hydrological model

using different data sources

THANKS!!


3 ictp workshop the theory and use of regional climate models may 29 june 9

3° ICTP Workshop

“The Theory and Use of Regional Climate Models”

May 29 – June 9


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