JM Smucker Processed & Packaged Goods

1. JM SmuckerProcessed & Packaged Goods Connor Myers

2. “With a name like Smucker’s, it has to be good”

5. Background • Founded in 1897 in Orville, Ohio. • Full-Time Employees: 4,875 • Revenues of 5.72 Billion Dollars in 2013

6. Comparable Companies (Processed & Packaged Goods) • Starbucks (SBUX) • Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) • Mondelez (MDLZ)

7. Module 12 & 13: Full Information Forecasting and Valuation • Trend Analysis of NEA and EPAT • Breakdown of ROE • New Sales, EPAT, and NEA forecasts • Updated Valuations using FCF, REI, Abnormal Growth • Buy/Sell Recommendation

8. NEA Trend Analysis

9. EPAT Trend Analysis

10. First Level Breakdown $603.04 - $56.84 _______________________________________________ [($7,028.2 + $7,114.7) – ($1,879.4 + $1,951.4)] / 2 10.6%

11. ROE Drivers

12. 2nd & 3rd Level Breakdown

14. Updated Sales Forecast

15. Updated Sales Forecast • There is not much information in the 10K breaking down sales • After some analysis determined the 6.5% was still a good estimate • Only change is I faded the 6.5% down to 2.5% in 1% increments

16. Updated EPM • Cost of Goods Sold remained relatively constant as a % of sales over the past 3 years so I kept it constant • All the expenses have increased over the years, plans to increase advertising and marketing and cut distribution costs • Most other accounts I just kept constant due to the lack of detail in the notes

17. Updated EPM

18. Updated EPAT

19. Updated EATO Assets

20. Updated EATO Liabilities

21. Updated NEA

22. Discounted Cash Flow

23. REI

24. Abnormal Growth

25. Estimated Value per Share

26. Conclusion • Pretty Close! • I would recommend buying shares of JM Smucker because it is slightly undervalued • Also their future plans to keep expanding should increase their value