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November 16, 2010

November 16, 2010. Status and Outlook for electricity demand and resources in Ontario Presentation to APPrO conference By Amir Shalaby. Outline of presentation on status and outlook for electricity. Status: Resource additions since 2005 Outlook: Resources in the pipe

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November 16, 2010

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  1. November 16, 2010 Status and Outlook for electricity demand and resources in Ontario Presentation to APPrO conference By Amir Shalaby

  2. Outline of presentation on status and outlook for electricity • Status: Resource additions since 2005 • Outlook: Resources in the pipe • Outlook: Resource requirements to 2015, starting with Demand, accounting for conservation, and reliability reserves • Comparing Supply to requirements to 2015 • Observations 2

  3. Recently added resources have restored reliability, replaced some coal 31,200 + 7,800 = 39,000 39,000 – 3,100 = 35,900 3

  4. More resources are in the pipe 35,900 + 9,900 = 45,800 45,800 – 4,500 = 41,300 2010 2015 4

  5. Five steps to compare requirements to supply • First, account for energy efficiency in the demand forecast • Second, add reliability reserve margins to demand to come up with required resources, this accounts for forced outages of nuclear, gas and for extreme weather • Third, check for transmission bottle necks and address regional reliability, in addition to provincial adequacy • Fourth, account for nuclear and NUG continuing operations • Fifth, adjust installed capacity of resources to their contribution at time of summer peak. This applies mostly to renewables. 5

  6. First: account for efficiency and TOU impacts in the demand forecast 3,200 MW 1,200 MW 380 MW/year increase in efficiency and TOU impact in the next five years 6

  7. Second: add reliability reserve margins (17 % of peak) to demand 4,000 MW 7

  8. Third: check for transmission bottle necks Northwest Region GTA Region KWCG 8

  9. Fourth: account for nuclear and NUG continued operations • Pickering continued operations, beyond 2014-15 are being pursued • Bruce refurbishment plans are being formulated • The period 2014-2018 can see over 4,000 MW out of service, or can have it all continuing to operate • There are NUG contracts that reach their end date • More information will be available in the next year or two 9

  10. Adding these considerations together 41,300 + 1,500 - 4,800 = 38,000 2010 Installed Capacity 2015 Installed Capacity 10

  11. Fifth: account for reduced resource capabilities during summer peak 28, 200 MW 38, 000 MW 11

  12. Now you can compare requirements to supply 12

  13. Assuming nuclear and NUG continued operations 13

  14. Observations • Efficiency more than offsets growth in population/economy • There are adequate resources to at least 2015 and likely beyond depending on new commitments and on nuclear and NUG continued operations • Additions of intermittent generation in the midterm requires: new transmission, new operating rules and protocols, contract administration, facility operations, and ancillary service planning • Regional reliability focus will be on: GTA, KWCG, Northwest • Planning for nuclear refurbishments is a current priority for post-2015 time period 14

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