Demographics in the 21 st century
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Demographics in the 21 st Century. Current trends regional & local population & employment aging boomers & labor force diversity Resulting challenges. Population 1860-2004. 2004 City Limits. SDO Projections. Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections.

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Demographics in the 21 st century

Demographics in the 21st Century

Current trends

regional & local population & employment

aging boomers & labor force

diversity

Resulting challenges




Sdo projections
SDO Projections

Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections



Olmsted county growth projections
Olmsted County Growth Projections

ROCOG: Rochester Olmsted Council of Governments. SDO: Minnesota State Demographer’s Office.


Projected population growth
Projected Population Growth

Source: State Demographer’s Office 2002 projections


How much will olmsted county grow
How much will Olmsted County grow?

  • At State Demographer’s projected Olmsted share of region’s growth, it will increase ~46,250 from 124,277 in 2000 to 170,530 by 2030

  • At historic Olmsted share using State Demographer’s regional population forecast, it will increase to 182,465 by 2030

  • This would still require at least 20,000 more commuters from surrounding counties, roughly a 100% increase


How much will rochester grow
How much will Rochester grow?

  • At projected Olmsted share of region & continued Rochester share, around 41,000, to 126,700 by 2030 (includes annexations)

  • At historic Olmsted share & continued Rochester share of County, about 50,000, to 136,300 by 2030 (includes annexations)

  • Assumes increased commuting.


District 6 Commuter Exchanges

With Olmsted County

To Olmsted

From Olmsted

105

2,179

41

498

3,141

232

3,817

256

347

554

1,907

104

439

2,621

1,993

90

147

251

6

23


Employment growth
Employment Growth

From 1990 through 2004, we have

  • grown from 65,700 to 90,175 non-farm wage & salary jobs,

  • an increase of 24,475 jobs,

  • an increase of 37% overall,

  • at a rate averaging over 2.1% per year.


1990 2004 non farm wage salary employment growth rochester msa
1990-2004 Non-farm Wage & Salary Employment Growth Rochester MSA

Source: ROPD from Minnesota Department of Economic Security



Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth
Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth MSA

  • Aging baby boom has reduced the rate of home-grown labor force growth

  • Aging baby boom puts most growth in age groups resistant to migration.

  • Recent sources of labor force growth have been exhausted (increased female labor force participation, workers leaving the farm, increased commuting, etc.)


1990 population by age and sex
1990 Population by Age and Sex MSA

Aging baby boom


2000 population by age and sex
2000 Population by Age and Sex MSA

Aging baby boom


Distribution of population change by age olmsted county 1990 2000
Distribution of Population Change by Age MSAOlmsted County 1990-2000

Aging baby boom


Population change by age source 1990 2000
Population Change by Age & Source MSA1990 - 2000

Positive net migration helped to offset losses in early labor force population.


Distribution of population change by age olmsted county 2000 2030
Distribution of Population Change by Age MSAOlmsted County 2000-2030

Aging baby boom


Distribution of population change by age olmsted county 2000 20301
Distribution of Population Change by Age MSAOlmsted County 2000-2030

Aging baby boom



Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth1
Why it will be harder to continue this type of growth MSA

  • Olmsted County will experience a 20% growth in its labor force age groups (according to State Demographer forecasts based on historic share of statewide net migration)

  • versus a 41% growth in employment (based on growth not constrained by labor force availability).


Labor force employment by age sex olmsted county 2000 census
Labor Force & Employment by Age & Sex MSAOlmsted County 2000 Census


George will pb 1 04 2004

Unless there are politically difficult changes, such as raising the retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today. And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which would involve its own political difficulties.

George Will

PB 1/04/2004


Olmsted county population change by race 1990 to 2000
Olmsted County Population Change by Race – 1990 to 2000 raising the retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today. And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which would involve its own political difficulties.

1990 numbers adjusted to control total of 106,470.

Source: ROPD from 2000 Census


Sources of population change olmsted county 1990 2000
Sources of Population Change raising the retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today. And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which would involve its own political difficulties. Olmsted County 1990-2000

Calculated based on Census and Minnesota State Health records.

“Other” excludes Hispanic Whites, who are included as White.


1990 2000 olmsted county under 19 population by race
1990 – 2000 Olmsted County raising the retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today. And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which would involve its own political difficulties. Under 19 Population by Race


1990 2000 under 19 population change by race
1990 – 2000 Under 19 Population raising the retirement age, there will be twice as many retirees as there are today. And there will be perhaps only 18 percent more workers to pay for the retirees -- unless there is a much higher rate of immigration, which would involve its own political difficulties. % Change by Race



5 19 household population by race olmsted county 2000 2003
5-19 Household Population by Race Olmsted County 2000-2003 Population

Estimated from public school enrollment in 5 school districts in Olmsted County.



Demographic challenges for the next 30 years
Demographic Challenges for the Next 30 Years Population

  • Aging and retirement of the baby boom

  • Slow growth or decline of surrounding commuter counties

  • Increased reliance on in-migration to fill jobs

  • Assimilation and training of immigrants

  • Education and training of our future work force


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