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DEMETER D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-model E nsemble System for Seasonal to In ter annual Prediction. Tim Palmer Renate Hagedorn Francisco Doblas-Reyes. Outline. Hindcast production  Summary of all models  Estimate of ERA-40 production. • Verification

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DEMETER D evelopment of a E uropean M ulti-model E nsemble System for

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Demeter d evelopment of a e uropean m ulti model e nsemble system for

DEMETER

Development of a European

Multi-model Ensemble System for

Seasonal to Interannual Prediction

Tim Palmer

Renate Hagedorn

Francisco Doblas-Reyes


Outline

Outline

  • Hindcast production

  •  Summary of all models

  •  Estimate of ERA-40 production

•Verification

 Automatic diagnostics on web

 First multi-model results


Demeter

Hindcast production

Multi-model assessment

End users, applications

Hindcast verification

Downscaling

DEMETER

ERA40

EU and WMO programmes


Demeter hindcast production

ERA40 fluxes

09/86

11/86

Ocean model integration

(strong relaxation to observed SSTs)

DEMETER: Hindcast production

•9 member ensembles, 6 month hindcasts, 4 hindcasts per year

ERA-40 initial conditions

SST and wind perturbations

•Main focus: 1987-1998 (1969-1986)

No SST Pert

No WP

+ SST Pert

- SST Pert

+ SST Pert

+ WP

- SST Pert

- WP


Demeter hindcast production1

DEMETER: Hindcast production

ERA-40: 10 years and 7 months

ECMWF: 10*4 + 2 = 42 hindcasts

LODYC: 10*4 + 1 = 41 hindcasts

UKMO: 9*4 + 2 = 38 hindcasts

CNRM: 8*4 + 2 = 34 hindcasts

MPI: 6*4 + 1 = 25 hc

09/86

04/97

11/86

11/92

02/96

02/95

02/97


Estimate of era 40 production

Estimate of ERA-40 Production

Stream 2 Stream 3 Stream 1


Verification system

  • Bias

  • Indices

  • Deterministic Scores

  • Probabilistic Scores

  • Single vs. multi-model results

Verification System

www.ecmwf.int/research/demeter/verification


Demeter d evelopment of a e uropean m ulti model e nsemble system for

Bias


Value

Value


Anomaly correlation coefficient

Anomaly Correlation Coefficient


Multi model demeter hindcasts

Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts

ACC for Niño3 SST for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, andLODYC


Multi model demeter hindcasts1

Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts

Tropical RPSS (JJA) for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, and LODYC

SST

Precipitation


Multi model demeter hindcasts2

Multi-model DEMETER hindcasts

Value (Tropics, JJA) for Multimodel, ECMWF, MetFr, MetOf, and LODYC

SST

Precipitation

Anom>

Anom>

Anom>0

Anom>0


Summary

Summary

  • 5 DEMETER models are archiving into MARS

  • Hindcasts from 1987 – 1996 are available

  •  Full DEMETER data set (1969-1998) not available

  • before end of 2003

  • free (!) online (!) data retrieval very likely to be

  • installed and working at the end of 2002

  • Wide range of diagnostic plots freely accessible on the

  • DEMETER web site: www.ecmwf.int/research/verification

  • First results demonstrate value of multi-model approach


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