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A Strategic Conversation About the Future of the New Hampshire Bar. Presentation by Charles F. Robinson Clearwater, Florida. www.CharlesRobinsonFuturist.com. Chief Justice Broderick. “I believe that when we look back at the legal landscape 15 years from now, we will barely recognize today.

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A strategic conversation about the future of the new hampshire bar l.jpg

A Strategic Conversation About the Future of the New Hampshire Bar

Presentation by

Charles F. Robinson

Clearwater, Florida

www.CharlesRobinsonFuturist.com


Chief justice broderick l.jpg
Chief Justice Broderick Hampshire Bar

  • “I believe that when we look back at the legal landscape 15 years from now, we will barely recognize today.

  • It would be silly to think that with technology moving at the speed of light, that the practice of law and the court system will remain largely as they are.

  • We need to do all that we can to design the future.”


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Tom Peters Predicts Hampshire Bar

  • Ninety per cent white-collar jobs will disappear in the next ten years.

  • What color collars do lawyers wear?

  • Is there an exception for lawyers?


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Stare Decisis- Hampshire BarWalking Through Life Backwards


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Change Implications Hampshire Bar

  • Speeches, articles, and even retreats to teach how to deal with change won’t change behavior without

    • Follow-up positive reinforcement

    • Multidisciplinary support

    • Framing change in a way to bridge the present with the future

  • If your passion for change is subsumed in the tyranny of the urgent Monday morning you will hate change even more


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Leading the Profession to a Hampshire BarPreferred Future

  • If we don’t drive the vehicle to our future we will end up wherever we are taken

  • Institutionalize search for foresight


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Scenario Thinking Hampshire Bar

Focus on the capability of the organization to

  • Perceive what is going on in the practice environment

  • Think through what this means for the bench and bar

  • Act upon the new knowledge


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Objectives Hampshire Bar

Get beyond traditional thinking that

  • Acts like a filter, restricting the ability to perceive new information

  • Imprisons us with personal biases and routines within a world of recipes and business-as-usual assumptions

  • Frames our response automatically


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A Strategic Conversation Hampshire Bar

  • A chance to rehearse the future but not predict the future.

  • Change is too complex to allow prediction.

  • Looking for the “dots on the horizon”-signs of change and how we should adapt.

  • Must move toward adaptive organizational learning

    • Perception

    • Thinking

    • Action


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Wired Magazine Hampshire Bar(January, 1998)

Guardians of the old order are trying their best to hold back change and preserve their power.


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Bill Gates Warning Hampshire Bar

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”


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Tom Peters Hampshire Bar

“If you don’t like change, you are going to like irrelevance even less”


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"I think there is a world Hampshire Barmarket for maybe five computers.“

Thomas Watson

Chairman of IBM,1943


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“This ‘telephone’ has too Hampshire Barmany shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.”

Western Union internal memo, 1876.


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“I’m just glad it’ll be Clark Gable who’s falling on his face and not Gary Cooper.”

Gary Cooper on his decision not to take the leading role in “Gone With the Wind”


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“Everything that his face and not Gary Cooper.”can be invented has been invented.”

Charles H. Duell,Commissioner,US Office of Patents, 1899


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Toxic Assumptions his face and not Gary Cooper.”of the Legal Profession





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“What Are the Forces Already at Work in Our Profession That Have the Potential to Profoundly Transform Our Profession’s Structure?”

  • Each Force a “Discontinuity”

  • Examine Implications for Each Discontinuous Force


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Nonlawyer competition That Have

Diminished perceived value in attorney services

Technology displacement

Lawyer supply exceeds demand

Disintermediation- Out with the middle person

Current Forces Impacting the Profession


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The Lawyer’s World is Flat That Have

  • Program to run in 3 Texas Law Schools this year

  • Focus on how practice is changing and what law students and young lawyers can do to thrive in the 21st century

  • Business as usual not an option


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The World is Flat That Have A Brief History Of The 21st Century

The 10 Forces That Flattened the World

Thomas L. Friedman


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Flattener 1- 11/9/1989 That Have Fall of Berlin Wall

  • Ultimately liberated all Soviet Union captive people

  • Tipped balance of power to those advocating democratic, consensual, free-market-oriented governance

  • Capitalism the only surviving choice


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Flattener 2 - 8/9/95 That Have Netscape goes Public

  • From PC-based computing platform to Internet-based platform

  • Killer applications

    • E-mail

    • Internet browsing

  • Netscape first mainstream browser culture for general public

  • Internet stopped being province of early adopters and geeks


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Flattener 3 - Work Flow Software That Have

Let’s Do Lunch: Have Your ApplicationTalk to MyApplication

Work flow moved from manual work flow to

  • Seamless interoperable work flow

  • Seamless interoperable work flow with other companies

  • With standard language (XML) makes e-filing possible

  • Global platform for multiple forms of collaboration


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Flattener 4- Open-Sourcing That Have Self-Organizing Collaborative Communities

  • Bottom up, shared, constantly improved by users, available free to anyone

  • Motive is the “psychic buzz” that comes from creating a collective product that can beat something produced by giants like Microsoft and IBM

  • Example - Apache an open source software system, powers 2/3 of the world’s web sites

  • Wikipedia the open source encyclopedia

  • Linux- Top candidate to replace Windows OS


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Flattener 5 - Outsourcing That Have Y2K

India

  • No natural resources

  • Mines brains of its own by educating a relatively large slice of its elites in

    • Sciences

    • Engineering

    • Medicine

  • Creates giant knowledge meritocracy

  • A talent factory for engineering, computer science, and software for the globe- Law?

  • Software engineers took lead in fixing Y2K bug


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Flattener 6- Offshoring That Have Running with Gazelles, Eating with Lions

Every morning in Africa, a gazelle wakes up.

It knows it must run faster than the fastest lion or it will be killed.

Every morning a lion wakes up.

It knows it must outrun the slowest gazelle or it will starve to death.

It doesn’t matter if you are a lion or a gazelle.

When the sun comes up, you better start running.


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Outsourcing v. Offshoring That Have

  • Outsourcing- Take specific, but limited function that you were doing in-house, eg

    • Research

    • Document drafting

  • Have outsource company take those functions for you and you reintegrate their work back into your operation


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Offshoring That Have

  • Takes a part of the firm in Canton, Ohio and moves it to Canton, China.

    • The firm produces the work in the same way with lower taxes, cheaper labor, subsidized energy, and lower health-care costs

  • Really started 12-11-2001 when China formally joined the WTO.

  • Made China’s own competitive playing field as level as the rest of the world

  • China agreed to follow international law and standard business practices

    Not certain who is lion, who is gazelle


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26 That Have


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Chinese looking to That Have future as designers

  • May be 10 years out

  • In 30 years will have gone from

    • Sold in China

    • Made in China

    • Designed in China

    • Dreamed up in China


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“If Americans and Europeans want to benefit from the flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Thomas Friedman


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Flattener 7 - Supply-Chaining flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

When a customer lifts a product off the shelf

the cashier scans it in. At that moment:

  • A signal is generated from the Wal-Mart network to the supplier

  • The signal shows up on the supplier’s screen

  • To make another of that item and ship it via the Wal-Mart supply chain, and the whole cycle will start anew

    Wal-Mart database is entire Internet X 2


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Flattener 8- Insourcing flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

UPS slogan-

Your World Synchronized

What the guys in the Funny Brown Shorts Are Really Doing


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Flattener 8- Insourcing flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Not just package delivery; synchronizing global supply chains

  • Toshiba laptops under warranty

    • Instructions to ship UPS to Toshiba

    • Actually goes to UPS Louisville hub for repair by UPS instead of UPS to Toshiba to UPS to customer


Flattener 8 insourcing45 l.jpg
Flattener 8- Insourcing flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • UPS dispatches Papa John pizza delivery

  • Nike Shoes

    UPS has spent $1billion since 1996 to serve any supply chain in the world


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Flattener 9- In-Forming flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search

  • Informing is the ability to build and deploy your own personal supply chain- a supply chain of information, knowledge, and entertainment.

  • Allows self-collaboration- becoming your own self-directed and self-empowered researcher, editor without a trip to the library.

  • Searching for knowledge.


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Flattener 9- In-Forming flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”Google, Yahoo!, MSN Web Search

  • Seeking like-minded people and communities

  • Google doing over one billion searches per day

  • iPod, Ceiva, TiVo, Amazon


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Flattener 10- The Steroids flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”Digital, Mobile, Personal, and Virtual

  • Taking all forms of collaboration- outsourcing, offshoring, open-sourcing, supply-chaining, insourcing, and in-forming, and doing so in a way that is

    • Digital

    • Mobile

    • Virtual

    • Personal

  • Enhancing each one and making the world flatter by the day


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What Do We Tell Our Kids/Grandkids? flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Only one message-

You must constantly upgrade your skills

“Children, when I was growing up, my parents used to say to me,

‘Tom finish your dinner- people in China and India are starving.’

My advice to you is:

Kids, finish your homework- people in China and India are starving for your jobs.”


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Become an “Untouchable” flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • People whose jobs cannot be outsourced

  • Four broad categories


Special l.jpg
Special flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Michael Jordan

  • Bill Gates


Specialized l.jpg
Specialized flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Work cannot be outsourced because niche not fungible

  • Fungible means easily digitized or substituted

  • Lawyers in niche practices

  • Management consultants

  • Brain Surgeons

  • Cutting edge computer architects

  • Cutting edge software engineers

  • Skills that are in high demand and not fungible


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Chief Justice Broderick flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

“It is a consumer world and lawyers are often seen as fungible commodities.”


Anchored l.jpg
Anchored flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • For those who cannot be special or specialized

  • Job must be done in a specific location involving face-to face contact

    • Barber

    • Chef/waitperson

    • Home town lawyers with minimum fungibility

    • Car Mechanic

    • Plumber

    • Dentist


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Anchored flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Compensation determined by local conditions

  • Lawyer may outsource fungible services like research or document drafting to a legal aide in Bangalore


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Really Adaptable flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Acquire new skills, knowledge, and expertise that enable value creation

  • Skillfully and socially adaptable

  • Able to learn how to learn

  • May be survival skill for the anchored lawyer


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The Threatened flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Those who are

  • Not very special

  • Not very specialized

  • Not very anchored

  • Not very adaptable


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The Triple Convergence flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Convergence One- The “ten forces” converge in complementary, mutually enhancing fashion- One machine scans, emails, prints, faxes, and copies

  • Convergence Two- Move from vertical chain of command for value creation to horizontal collaboration

  • Convergence Three- You don’t have to live in America to get good work. It’s a plug and play world.


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How the Profession Can Cope flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Rule 1: When the world goes flat- and you are feeling flattened-

reach for a shovel and dig inside yourself.

Don’t try to build walls


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How the Profession Can Cope flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Rule 2- And the small shall act big…

    One way small companies flourish in the flat world is by learning to act real big. Take advantage of new tools for collaboration to reach farther, faster, wider, and deeper.


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How Firms Can Cope flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Rule 3: And the big shall act small… One way that big companies learn to flourish in the flat world is by learning how to act really small by enabling their customers to act really big. Make business a buffet for customers to serve themselves in their own way. Self directed consumer

  • Rule 4: The best companies are the best collaborators


Cycles and trends l.jpg

Cycles and Trends flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”


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Trends v. Cycles flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Cycle says wait it out and it will come back.

    • Weather

    • Markets

  • Trend says will not likely return to status quo

    • We must deal with it or

    • Let it take us wherever the trend goes

  • Watch out for Wild Cards


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Trend or Cycle flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Substantive Practice Areas Threatened

    • Family Law

    • Real Estate

    • Tax and Estate Planning

    • PI Defense

    • Litigation

    • Business advice


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Substantive Practice Areas Threatened flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Family Law

  • >70% Pro Se

  • Rules of Civil Procedure gone


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Pro se litigation flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • One party pro se in 85% of all cases in District Court and 48% in Superior Court

  • Both sides unrepresented in 38% of cases

  • Domestic relations cases 70% one party

  • Domestic violence cases 97% one party

    Report on NH Supreme Court Task Force on Self-Represented Litigants- January 2004


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Substantive Practice Areas Threatened flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Real Estate

  • Realtors

  • Internet


Slide68 l.jpg

Substantive Practice Areas Threatened flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Tax and Estate Planning

  • Wills on-line

  • Financial Planners, CPA

  • Death of “Death Tax”


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Jonathon Blattmachr flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Estate tax eliminated in Canada over 20 years ago

  • First few years lawyers busy adjusting estate plans

  • After that Trusts & Estates practice dropped by 90%


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Estate Tax Repeal flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • Passed in House- Pending in Senate

  • What are the implications to CLE providers and estate planning lawyers?

  • Is Canada’s repeal a model?


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Substantive Practice Areas Threatened flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

House Counsel

  • Trade Association legal advice


Slide72 l.jpg

Substantive Practice Areas Threatened flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

PI Defense

  • Insurance companies

  • Tort Reform


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Tort Reform flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • “Economically destructive litigation”

  • US most expensive tort system in the world

  • $179 billion 2002 direct costs

    • $636 per capita

    • 150% of amount spent on pharmaceuticals

  • Bills pending in 20 states

  • 11 states have passed legislation

    “Trends” Volume 1, Issue 3, July 2003


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Senator Chuck Schumer, D NY flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

“Lawsuits have gotten out of control in America and something needs to be done to rein them in.”


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President Bush- 2004 flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

  • “Lawyers walk away with up to 40% of every settlement….for frivolous suits…driving a wedge between them (doctor) and patient.”

  • Unnecessary lawsuits drive docs to prescribe drugs and procedures to avoid lawsuits.


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House OKs Fines for Lawyers for Meritless Suits flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

House Majority Leader Tom DeLay

“…pestilent culture of hyper-litigation.”

Congress should “take back America’s legal system from the Lords of the Ambulance Chase.”

Reuters 9-14-04


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Substantive Practice Areas Threatened flattening of the world and the interconnecting of all the markets and knowledge centers, they will all have to run as fast as the fastest lion- and I suspect that lion will be China, and I suspect that it will be pretty darn fast.”

Litigation

  • Sport for the wealthy

  • Government attack on PI and Med Mal

  • Pro se litigators



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Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services today, ignorance or apathy?

“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”


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Are We Really Prisoners of Nostalgia?? today, ignorance or apathy?


Trend or cycle81 l.jpg
Trend or Cycle today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Substantive Practice Areas Threatened

  • MJP


Slide82 l.jpg

Alphabet Soup today, ignorance or apathy?

M

J

P

M

D

P

A

B

P

S

A

What Does It Mean For Your Practice?


2 multijurisdictional practice l.jpg
2. Multijurisdictional Practice today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Birbrower et. al v. Superior Court of Santa Clara County, 949 P.2d 1 (Cal 1998)


New jersey mjp arguments april 2003 l.jpg
New Jersey MJP Arguments today, ignorance or apathy?April 2003

  • “Specific knowledge of New Jersey law, or the laws of any state, is overemphasized.”

    • “You go to the computer or have someone do it for you.”

      “What are we, Planet New Jersey?”


New jersey mjp contd l.jpg
New Jersey MJP today, ignorance or apathy?contd

  • There are 60,000 New Jersey residents working in Philadelphia, and many thousands more in New York state.

  • What is rationale to place arbitrary borders on regional practice?


Mjp and reciprocity breaking down the borders l.jpg
MJP and reciprocity - today, ignorance or apathy?breaking down the borders

The essential elements for reciprocal admission of Washington, Oregon, Utah and Wyoming attorneys in Idaho are:

  • Graduation from an ABA approved law school.

  • Prior passage of the Washington, Oregon, Utah and/or Wyoming bar examination.

  • Three years of practice in Washington, Oregon, Utah or Wyoming.

  • Good moral character.

  • Fifteen hours of CLE

    • Practice

    • Procedure

    • Ethics


Borderless world l.jpg
Borderless World today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Regional/National reciprocity 26 states now

  • GATS Treaty

  • Driver’s license approach in 5-10 years


Trend or cycle88 l.jpg
Trend or Cycle today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Substantive Practice Areas Threatened

  • MJP

  • Technology


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Law Office of the Future today, ignorance or apathy?

  • A computer + a dog + a lawyer.

  • The computer will practice law.

  • The dog is there to keep the lawyer away from the computer.

  • The lawyer is there to feed the dog.

Dr. Peter Bishop, Associate professor of Human Sciences University of Houston-Clear Lake


3 technology disintermediation l.jpg
3. Technology Disintermediation today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Internet Available to Everyone

    • Wills, Tax Return Prep On-line

  • Like Printing Press to Church/Temple

  • Literacy Brings New Relationships


The future of law facing the challenges of information technology l.jpg
The Future of Law: today, ignorance or apathy?Facing the Challenges of Information Technology

Richard Susskind

  • Legal Profession Will Change Beyond Recognition

  • Three Types of Legal Service

    • Traditional

    • Commoditized

    • Latent

Commodity

Traditional

Latent


Susskind s key questions l.jpg
Susskind’s Key Questions today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Likely developments in IT over next 10 years

  • Possibilities for law practice in light of IT changes

  • Future for lawyers and what part is the world wide web likely to play


Transforming the law essays on technology justice and the legal marketplace richard susskind 2000 l.jpg
Transforming the Law; Essays on Technology, today, ignorance or apathy?Justice and the Legal Marketplace- Richard Susskind 2000

  • Introduces the “Susskind Grid”

  • First work tying together technology use and strategic future planning for lawyers


Slide94 l.jpg

Figure 2.1 - Today’s Client Service Chain today, ignorance or apathy?

Recognition

Selection

Service

blatant

trigger

selection

of lawyer

consultative

advice

Richard Susskind 2000

C


Slide95 l.jpg

Figure 2.4 - Transforming the Recognition element today, ignorance or apathy?

of the Client Service Chain

proactive

service

Transforming the Recognition

element of the Client Service Chain

  • infomediaries

  • legal audits

  • push technology

  • intelligent agents

  • embedded expertise

  • Intranet implants

  • business-episode based

blatant

trigger

from

to

blatant

trigger

Richard Susskind 2000

C


Slide96 l.jpg

Figure 2.3 - Transforming the Selection element today, ignorance or apathy?

of the Client Service Chain

Transforming the Selection

element of the Client Service Chain

selection

of adviser

  • infomediaries

  • online auctions

  • virtual teams

selection

of source of

guidance

selection

of lawyer

from

to

  • assessment

  • of need

  • infomediaries

selection

of online

service

  • infomediaries

Richard Susskind 2000

C


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Figure 2.2 - Transforming the Service element today, ignorance or apathy?

of the Client Service Chain

  • high-end, traditional

Transforming the Service

element of the Client Service Chain

consultative

advice

  • project management

  • document management

  • legal research

  • strategy

unbundled

services

consultative

advice

from

to

online

service

  • commoditized

  • latent market

  • multi-disciplinary

Richard Susskind 2000

C


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Figure 2.5 - Tomorrow’s Client Service Chain today, ignorance or apathy?

Recognition

Selection

Service

selection

of adviser

consultative

advice

proactive

service

selection

of source of

guidance

unbundled

services

blatant

trigger

selection

of online

service

online

service

Richard Susskind 2000

C


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Technology Disintermediation- today, ignorance or apathy?Trend or Cycle?

What are implications if Susskind is correct?

  • Traditional-large firm, large client only

  • Commodity- better, faster, cheaper

  • Latent-may be no direct client contact


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Trend or Cycle today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Substantive Practice Areas Threatened

  • MJP

  • Technology

  • Offshoring/reintermediation


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4. Offshoring/Intermediation- today, ignorance or apathy?Trend or Cycle?


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Intel CEO Craig Barrett today, ignorance or apathy?Jan-Feb 2004 Business 2.0

  • In space of 5 years close to 3 billion people have been brought into mainstream capitalist economic infrastructure (India, China, Russia and some Russian satellite countries)

  • Substantially lower wages with comparable or superior education to US applicants.

  • “Unless you’re my auto mechanic or plumber, I don’t care where the hell you’re located.”


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Brad Hildebrandt 1-14-04 today, ignorance or apathy?

  • Outsourcing to India $10 billion in next 5 years

  • Hildebrandt offering 3 choices

    • Consult with firm re outsourcing

    • Several clients form captive outsourcing firm

    • Joint venture with existing outsourcing company


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Lou Dobbs Report today, ignorance or apathy?

  • 8-10% of all associates hired by large law firms will be offshore hires (as in India) by 2011.

    • 2000 1,793 off-shore

    • 2005 14,200

    • 2010 34,673

    • 2015 74,672

    • U.S. Dept of Labor & Forrester Research

  • The new associates will take on roughly the same work as new associates handle in the firms now at less than 20% of the cost.


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Outsourcing Hits Legal Services today, ignorance or apathy?Star Tribune 1-16-2004

  • “First it was apparel workers-the working class-who saw their $10-an-hour jobs go overseas.”

  • “Now six-figure lawyers and legal support staffs are starting to sweat.”

    • Westlaw has test office in Bombay

  • GE and other behemoths using Indian lawyers to supplant work formerly done by outside law firms.


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Outsourcing Hits Legal Services today, ignorance or apathy?contd

  • Forrester Research- by 2015 489,000 U.S. lawyer jobs will shift to lower cost countries

  • Mindcrest Inc. legal process outsourcing

    • Enhanced levels of service and a 30-70% lower cost to customer


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“About a year ago I hired a developer in India to do my job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink


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No Limits? job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink

  • “Short on Priests, U.S. Catholics Outsource Prayer to Indian Clergy”—Headline, New York Times/06.13.04 (“Special intentions,” $.90 for Indians, $5.00 for Americans)


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Level 5 (top) certification/ job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan PinkCarnegie Mellon Software Engineering Institute: 35 of 70 companies in world are from IndiaSource: Wired/02.04


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Bye-Bye Associates? job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink

“…the kind of work now being sent off shore, and expected to be increasingly sent off-shore, is work normally done by first/second-year associates in the largest law firms -- research, legal memos, that kind of thing.


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Lexadigm.com job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink


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Elawforum.com job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink


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John Henry- Founder/CEO elawforum job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink

  • Aggregates large company legal problems and negotiates fixed-fee deals

  • “We just saved a client $55 million in 2 deals.”

  • “Our challenge now is to do a thousand of these deals.”


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So Now What Do We Do? job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink

  • Will our guild return to those glory days of yesteryear?

  • Are we experiencing discontinuous trends or are we merely in a cycle?

    “I am persuaded more than ever that the status quo is not our friend,” Broderick

  • First question- Is status quo an option?


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So Now What Do We Do? job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink

If answer to #1 is no, how do we get into the change process?

  • Role of the bar

  • Role of the individual lawyer/law firm


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Change or Die job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan PinkFast Company May 2005

What if you were given that choice?

Yes, you say?

Try again

Yes?

You are probably deluding yourself

You wouldn’t change

You want odds?

Nine to one against you

How do you like those odds?


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IBM Global Innovation Outlook Conference 2004 job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink

Most farsighted thinkers from around the world to come together in New York to propose solutions to really big problems


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Global Innovation Problem One-Health Care job. I pay him $12,000 to do the job I get paid $67,300 for. He is happy to have the work. I am happy that I only have to work about 90 minutes per day (I still have to attend meetings myself, and I spend a few minutes every day talking code with my Indian counterpart.) The rest of my time my employer thinks I’m telecommuting. They are happy to let me telecommute because my output is higher than most of my coworkers. Now I’m considering getting a second job and doing the same thing with it. That may be pushing my luck though. The extra money would be nice, but that could push my workday over five hours.” —from posting at Slashdot (02.04.04), reported by Dan Pink

  • Crisis- $1.8 trillion/year in US alone

    • 15% of gross domestic product

  • Dream team of experts expected to discuss

    • Scientific breakthroughs

    • Technology breakthroughs


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Root cause of Health Care Crisis Hasn’t Changed for Decades!

  • Medical establishment can’t figure out what to do about it.

  • Vast majority of health-care budget for well known and by and large behavioral.

    • Sick because of how we choose to lead our lives

    • Not because of genetic factors beyond control


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80% Health Care Budget Consumed by 5 Behavioral Issues Decades!

  • Smoking

  • Drinking

  • Eating

  • Stress

  • Insufficient exercise


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Coronary Bypass Surgery and Angioplasty Patients Decades!

Many patients could avoid return of pain and need to repeat the surgery, not to mention arrest the course of their disease before it kills them by switching to healthier lifestyles, but

90% don’t


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Changing Behavior of People Decades!

  • Not just the biggest challenge in health care

  • Also the biggest challenge in business (law practice)

  • Central issue is never

    • Strategy

    • Structure

    • Systems

  • Changing behavior of people

    John Kotter



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21 Decades!st Century Challenges

  • Competing in a turbulent world

  • Being ready to respond to profound upheavals in market dynamics such as

    • Shift from regulated to deregulated environment

    • Entry into new practice areas

    • Changing style of our work

      • Mentoring

      • Technology advances



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Does Crisis Bring Change? Decades!

  • Conventional wisdom says

    Yes

  • What about the heart disease victims?

  • Giving people accurate analyses and factual information about their situations?

    No

  • Why do we fight what we know to be in our own vital interests?


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Kotter’s Insight Decades!

  • Behavior change happens mostly by speaking to people’s feelings.

  • True even in organizations focused on analysis and quantitative measurement.

  • Highly successful change efforts require that people see problems or solutions in ways that influence emotions, not just thought.


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Emotional Persuasion Decades!

  • Not taught in business schools

  • Doesn’t come naturally to those who pride themselves on analytical thinking

    • Lawyers

    • Engineers

    • Accountants

    • Managers


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The Ornish Experiment- Preventative Medicine Research Center Decades!

  • Providing health care information important but not sufficient

  • Need additional dimensions

    • Psychological

    • Emotional

    • Spiritual


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Ornish Program Decades!

  • Vegetarian diet with less than 10% calories from fat.

  • Can reduce heart disease without surgery or drugs.

  • Medical establishment skeptical that people could sustain.


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Mutual of Omaha sponsored Decades!trial-1993

  • 333 patients with severely clogged arteries

  • Helped to quit smoking

  • Put on Ornish diet

  • Twice-weekly group support sessions led by psychologist

    • Meditation

    • Relaxation

    • Yoga

    • Aerobic exercise


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Ornish Program Decades!contd

  • Program lasted 1 year

  • After 3 years, 77% of people stuck with lifestyle changes and avoided bypass or angioplasty surgeries

  • Mutual of Omaha saved $30,000 per patient


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Why did Ornish Program Work? Decades!

  • Changes reason for change from fear of dying

  • Joy of living from feeling better and thinking of freedom from pain

    “Joy is a more powerful motivator than fear.”

Dean Ornish, MD


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Framing Change Decades!

  • Frames are the “mental structures that shape the way we see the world.”

  • Part of the “cognitive unconscious”

  • The way we know what our frames are, or create new ones, springs from language.


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Our Frames Decades!

  • Do we see our law firm as a

    • Military model with hierarchical chain of command?

    • Family?

    • Village?

  • Each model would have us working together in different ways


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The Big Challenge Decades!to Change Thinking

  • Our minds rely on frames, not facts

  • Concepts are tied in the synapses of the brain and are not changed by presenting us with a fact

  • For us to make sense of facts, the facts have to work within our concepts

  • Otherwise, facts go in and then right back out


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When Facts Don’t Fit Our Concepts Decades!

  • They are not heard, or

  • They are not accepted as facts, or

  • They mystify us.

  • Then we label the fact as irrational, crazy, or stupid.

  • The reason conservatives and liberals each think the other side nuts.

    • Brains are working within different frames

      George Lakoff, Professor of Cognitive Science and Linguistics, University of California at Berkeley



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Nicholas Negroponte change.Incrementalism is Innovation’s Worst Enemy


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Supporting Change change.

  • Remember 90% of the heart patients went back to old lifestyle but

  • 77% of Ornish’s patients stayed with the radical change

    • Weekly support groups with other patients

    • Attention from dieticians, psychologists, nurses, and yoga and meditation counselors


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Is the Lawyer’s Brain Hardwired- change.Unable to Change?

  • Brain’s ability to change is lifelong

  • Specialists’ brain may develop in ways to enhance the specialists skills but

    • Specialization can instill rigidity

  • Brain stimulation through continuous learning works

    • Active not the same as continuous learning

      • Learn Spanish or the oboe?

    • What have you learned in the last 6 months?

    • Self resume


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If I Can’t Predict the Future, How Can I Prepare for the Future? Peter Schwartz Inevitable Surprises

Build and maintain your sensory and intelligence systems.

  • Continue strategic conversations by discussing and interpreting the interaction of forces that might affect you.

  • Cultivate a sense of timing

    • How rapidly is this approaching?

    • When could it occur?

    • How long do we have?


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Preparing for the Future 2 Future?

  • Identify in advance the kinds of “early warning indicators” that would signal a change is rapidly upon you

  • Once the signals are identified, keep an eye out for them and be prepared to act when you observe them

  • Use short-term scenario exercises


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Preparing for the Future 3 Future?

Put in place mechanisms to engender creative destruction.

  • Discard what has worked in the past but may be moribund now.

  • What have you dismantled in the last year or two?

  • If none, may need to get some practice in before urgency strikes


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Preparing for the Future 4 Future?

Try to avoid denial

  • Do not pretend that the “inevitable surprise” is not happening

  • If the scenario is plausible and you think it would really hurt the organization, pay more attention to it


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Preparing for the Future 5 Future?

  • Be aware of the competence of your judgment, and the level of judgments new situations require

  • Move deliberately and humbly into new situations that stretch your judgment


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Preparing for the Future 6 Future?

Place a very, very high premium on learning.

  • Most failures to adapt are failures to learn enough in time about changing circumstances

  • Work will be increasingly knowledge intensive


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Mary Ryan, ABA Committee on Delivery of Legal Services Future?

“A lawyer is best defined as someone who provides the best services in a free market, not the only services in a protected market.”


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WHO Future? AREWE?


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WHAT’S OUR Future? STORY?


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WHAT’S OUR Future? DREAM?


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EXACTLY Future? HOW ARE WE DRAMATICALLYDIFFERENT?


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Dakota tribal wisdom says that when you discover you are riding a dead horse, the best strategy is to dismount.

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson


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In law firms we often try other strategies with dead horses, including the following:

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson


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Changing riders

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson


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Saying things like . . .

This is the way we always have ridden this horse!

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson


Dead horse l.jpg
Dead Horse?

What dead horse?

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson


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Appointing a committee to study the horse

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson



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Increasing the standards horsesto ride dead horses

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson


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Declare the horse is horses"better, faster and cheaper" dead

© 2000 Charles F. Robinson



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Presentation Materials horses

http://www.CharlieRobinsonFuturist.com/

Password = NHBAR

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Visit our Web Site horses

www.Charlie-Robinson.com

www.CharlieRobinsonFuturist.com

Or Email Comments to

[email protected]

Presentation graphics by Wendy

Presentation graphics by Wendy


Today s agenda l.jpg
Today’s Agenda horses

  • Why worry about the future?

  • The 2005 environment

  • Trends v. Cycles

  • How to lead change and make it stick


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How Firms Can Cope horses

  • Rule 5: In a flat world, the best companies stay healthy by getting regular chest x-rays and then selling them to their clients.

    • Typical company has 40-50 components

      • Where is firm best in class?

      • Where is firm differentiated?

      • Where do you have potential but don’t want to spend the money to get great?

    • Let go of what you can outsource and focus on the core competencies


How firms can cope170 l.jpg
How Firms Can Cope horses

  • Rule 6: The best companies outsource to win, not to shrink. They outsource to innovate faster and more cheaply in order to grow larger, gain market share, and hire more and different specialists- not to save money by firing more people.


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