Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future
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Is world food security guaranteed? Turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future. XIII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero, 10 y 11 de abril en el hotel Hilton Reforma . Abdolreza Abbassian Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, FAO

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Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Is world food security guaranteed?Turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

XIII Foro de Expectativas del Sector Agroalimentario y Pesquero, 10 y 11 de abril en el hotel Hilton Reforma

Abdolreza Abbassian

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, FAO

Senior Economist & Secretary of the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) of G20

[email protected]


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Food Import bills (USD billion)


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Many factors influence grain prices

Russian Drought

and Export Ban

Drought in the US

  • Political Tensions

  • Unfavourable Macroeconomic Conditions

  • Euro Crisis

  • Uncertain growing conditions in US & China but also CIS production recovery

2010

2011

2012

2013


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

& for rice, trade policy matters even more!


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

  • Depleting Stock levels & Tightening Supplies


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

  • More turmoil than in past, why?

  • Much lower cereal stocks

  • More productionfrom less stable (in terms of yields) regions (Russia, Ukraine, etc.)

  • Growing links with outside markets (energy, financial, etc.)

  • Increased dependence on imports and hence world trade

  • Few exporters accounting for most of the export supply

  • Restrictive trade measures (export taxes)

  • Climate change (stronger weather swings)

  • What to do?

  • Reduce price volatility in international markets; mitigate their impacts

  • How?

  • Enhance safety nets for the most vulnerable

  • Invest in agriculture


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Improve market information and transparency

www.amis-outlook.org


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Monthly Forecasts and Analysis


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Mexico is among the leading contributors to AMIS


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Cereal Market at a glance: Where are we today?


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Prices have fallen recently….


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Early prospects for wheat in 2013/14

FAO projects production to increase by 4.4% to 690 mt

Stocks not recovering?


Is world food security guaranteed turmoil in world grain markets amid uncertain future

Early prospects for coarse grains in 2013/14

Too early to forecast production but early indications suggest enough expansion to help stocks recover slightly


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