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The Palestinian Challenge

The Palestinian Challenge. Between War and Negotiations. Israel’s Security Dilemmas. What is the main threat?. PL State: Security Threat. W/o PL State: Demographic Threat. Militarized PL State. Worsening Demographic Balance. Foreign forces using PL. Erosion of 2SS.

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The Palestinian Challenge

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  1. The Palestinian Challenge Between War and Negotiations

  2. Israel’s Security Dilemmas What is the main threat? PL State: Security Threat W/o PL State: Demographic Threat Militarized PL State Worsening Demographic Balance Foreign forces using PL Erosion of 2SS Terrorism and Rocket fire Logic of Implosion Military Logic: Control Territory Political Logic: Withdrawal 1

  3. War in Gaza, Negotiations on WB Negotiations With Fatah War Against Hamas Military Logic: Control Territory Political Logic: Withdraw 2

  4. Is there a Palestinian Partner? Negotiations With Fatah War Against Hamas Legitimacy of PLO? Hamas controls Gaza & PLC Fatah Internally Weak PA’s inability to fight terror Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver 3

  5. Shelf Agreement The Goal: Shelf Agreement Easier to Achieve Guarantee 2SS Ensures Security Interests Abbas and Fayyad may not deliver 4

  6. Mindset Diverging Reality Ethos of Struggle can foil Easier to Achieve “Problematic” Ratification Process Palestinian Inversion towards PL State Guarantee 2SS Hamas control in Gaza Ensures Security Interests Gaps too wide over Core Issues 2SS Being pushed to Moment of Truth when there is no ‘ripeness’ 5

  7. An Attempt to Anchor the 2SS may Bury it End of Abu Mazen’s Political Career Calls for PA Dissolution 2SS Being pushed to Moment of Truth when there is no ‘ripeness’ 6

  8. Policy Options Creating a Safety Net Change the Agenda of Negotiations Upgrading the PA Break all or nothing dynamic The “Fayyad-Blair” Axis End of Abu Mazen’s Political Career Calls for PA Dissolution 7

  9. Vision Mission Strategy Islamic State in Mandatory Palestine Leading the PNM; Destruction of Israel Implosion Strategy Hamas The War Against Hamas in Gaza No Clear Plan of Operation It’s all aboutSurvival War of Attrition Society’s Absorption Ability : Strategic Depth Military Asymmetry: Advantage Death toll:Indication for Victory 8

  10. Strategy Implosion Strategy The War Against Hamas in Gaza Its Simplicity Creates the Difficulty Relevant when Israel Outside Gaza or Inside it when Gaza is Independent or Occupied Hamas Manages to Rule and to Fight Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas 9

  11. Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas The Next Step? Tahdiya – calm Re-open Gaza’s crossings Prisoners Swap? Unity Government? Abbas’ position? Only Temporary Solution: Hamas armament Difficult to create organizing logic against Hamas 10

  12. Policy Options vis-à-vis Hamas The Optimists The Pessimists Hamas could be partner for PSPB Military operation in Gaza is inevitable PL. reunification first Topple Hamas? Fatah rejects What about the day after? 11

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